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JPMorgan Lifts Oil Price Estimate to $78.25 for 2010, to $90 for 2011 Analysts at JPMorgan raised their oil price estimates for next year and 2011 this morning. Source: . .
Darling imposes 50% tax on banker bonuses Source:
What''s ahead in the markets for 2010 ? Read Full Articles on : . . .
What''s ahead in the markets for 2010 ? Read Full Articles on : . . .
China sovereign wealth fund to receive more capital: report TOKYO – Sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp is expected to receive another injection of capital from the country''s foreign-exchange reserves in the coming months, according to a report citing unnamed government officials and people familiar with the fund. While a final decision has yet to be made, the CIC would likely receive a similar amount to the initial $200 billion it was given at its founding two years ago, the Financial Times reported on its Web site Sunday. Chinese media have also reported the government is considering a new capital injection of that amount for the fund, the report said. The CIC, established in September 2007 with funding from China''s large foreign-exchange coffers, garnered global attention with high-profile losses from early investments in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group. But the CIC stayed mostly in cash last year before switching into highly liquid U.S dollar assets as the greenback bounced back in November 2008 and again in March this year, the report said. As the global economy began to recover earlier this year, the fund was quick to make investments in commodities-related assets that benefit from a rebound in Chinese growth, the report said. Beijing has repeatedly expressed its intention to gradually diversify away from low-yielding U.S. government securities, which now make up the bulk of its foreign reserves. Another factor influencing the decision to give CIC more money is the expectation that China''s largest banks will raise roughly $50 billion in new capital over the next couple of years to meet tighter regulatory requirements, the report said. Since CIC holds controlling stakes in most of China''s largest banks, the fund must provide much of this capital to avoid seeing its holdings diluted, it said. Source: - Dec. 21, 2009, 12:05 a.m. EST and . .
Dollar has hit bottom, Big China says \r\n\r\n\r\nAn investment strategist at China''s $300-billion (U.S.) wealth fund said the world''s third-largest economy now had a say in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, which it expects to rise while the yen should fall further.\r\n\r\nThe comments by Peng Junming, who works in the asset allocation and strategic research department at China Investment Corp, triggered a rally in the U.S. dollar.\r\n\r\n“I think the dollar is at its bottom now. There will be very limited space for the dollar to drop further,” he told an academic forum. “The yen is what, I think, has the worst outlook. The yen will continue to drop, unlike the dollar, which will not serve for long as a source of funding carry trades.”\r\n\r\n\r\nThe market reaction to Mr. Peng''s comments shows the sensitivity to clues on how China and its state fund view the markets.\r\n\r\n“A U.S. government official recently said that the dollar is ours but the problem is China''s. But China now has a voice in influencing the dollar''s exchange rate and the interest rate on U.S. government debt,” Mr. Peng said.\r\n\r\n“Although the dollar belongs to the U.S., China has a role to play in determining the dollar''s exchange rate.”\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nNo Need for Gold \r\n\r\n\r\nMr. Peng noted that China''s stash of dollars enabled it to influence commodities markets. Commodities like oil are priced in dollars and the prices tend to move inversely to the dollar.\r\n\r\n“We can weigh down or push up the dollar exchange rate, which will have an impact on the global commodity futures market.”\r\n\r\nMr. Peng was explicit in his view on gold: “China should have the right attitude about investing in gold. There is no urgent need for China to increase gold buying for now, because prices are high.”\r\n\r\nHe defended U.S. Treasury investments, arguing they had offset losses in stocks and helped swell currency reserves in 2007 and 2008.\r\n\r\nAbout two-thirds of China''s reserves, the largest stockpile in the world at $2.27-trillion, are estimated to be invested in dollar assets.\r\n\r\nLou Jiwei, CIC''s chairman, has been careful not to say much about how the fund invests its money. In October 2009, he said the fund was putting more money into commodities, real estate and infrastructure to hedge against medium- and long-term inflation and a fall in big currencies.\r\n\r\nMansoor Mohi-uddin, currency strategist at UBS in Singapore, said sovereign wealth funds are returning to prominence after losing influence during the financial crisis.\r\n\r\nHowever, private sector U.S. portfolio managers have the ultimate say on the dollar, he noted.\r\n\r\n“The portfolios of both sovereign wealth funds and central banks globally remain dwarfed by U.S. asset managers. It is the latter, as the largest holders of dollars in the world, who will continue to determine the ultimate direction of the greenback,” he said note to clients.\r\n\r\nTurning to interest rates, Mr. Peng, who previously worked in the New York office of the Chinese central bank, said he expected that both the United States and China would raise rates in the second half of the year.\r\n\r\nChina Investment Corp. was set up in late 2007 with $200-billion hived off from the foreign exchange stockpile, with a mandate of seeking higher returns than the more cautious reserve management agency.\r\n\r\nThanks largely to investments in domestic banks, its assets under management reached $300-billion at the end of 2008.\r\n\r\nChinese media have reported that CIC might be in line to receive as much as $200-billion extra from the foreign currency pot.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nreport on business - by THE GLOBE AND MAIL\r\n\r\n\r\nSource:\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n…………………….\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n.
China sets 7.5 trillion yuan of credit supply targeted in 2010 HONG KONG: Authorities have set the target for the credit supply in China in 2010 at roughly 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion), said Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission. Speaking at the Asian Financial Forum here on Wednesday, Liu said regulatory authorities would continue to control the pace and amount of credit supply this year "Though the first few days of January this year witnessed a relatively strong and quick lending momentum, that is because of the lagging effect of last year''s credit buildup," he said. "Such trend will definitely be eased as the effective demand is satisfied," he added. Credit supply in China totaled about 9.5 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in 2009, with monthly bank lending averaging 1.52 trillion yuan ($222.5 billion) in the first quarter but falling back gradually to normal levels in the following quarters. Credit played a primary role in supporting the massive infrastructural investment. Rapid credit buildup also stabilized the market confidence, eased liquidity stress and boosted the economy, Liu said. Liu said prudential measures were taken at the credit hike in the first quarter of last year, adding that regulatory authorities had asked banks to heighten their vigilance against any possible embedded credit risks. Liu said he expected challenges for the Chinese banking industry in 2010. "The year 2009 might be the most difficult year of the Chinese economy. 2010 could be the most complicated year with uncertainties," he said. Nevertheless, Liu said he did not expect the exit strategy to be a huge challenge for China because no money had been spent to rescue the financial industry. "The real challenge facing China and other Asian economies is how to readjust their structure," he said. - Updated: Thursday, January 21, 2010 Source: . .
Morgan Stanley: Beat Deflation (or Inflation) with Gold\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nExperts are divided on which threat is worse for the global economy, deflation or inflation, but gold is a safe bet in either outcome, Morgan Stanley said in a research note.\r\n\r\n“Gold looks to be the investment area that provides significant upside under the inflation-rebound scenario and relative resilience in the deflation scenario,” Morgan Stanley said.\r\n\r\nIt could act as a “relative safe haven” in the event of spiraling deflation, the report said.\r\n\r\nBut if the wave of government bailout money eventually sends prices higher, “gold should be one of the best hedges for investors,” it said.\r\n\r\nGold has performed relatively well throughout the last nine years, even through the 2001 deflation scare, the report pointed out.\r\n\r\nMarket watchers remain at odds as to whether the ongoing financial turmoil will develop into an inflationary or deflationary environment.\r\n\r\n\r\nMorgan Stanley thinks that government intervention will eventually manage to avert a multi-year debt-deflation spiral.\r\n\r\n"Once policy action gains traction, growth and inflation will quickly return, with the risk of hyperinflation," the report said.\r\n\r\n\r\nMorgan Stanley''s investment strategy remains "patient, prudent," despite their belief in the effectiveness of government intervention.\r\n\r\n"We are still in capital preservation mode, but prefer cash as we believe bonds are already pricing in too much deflation," it said.\r\n\r\n\r\nLooming inflation may keep gold prices high, says WGC\r\n\r\nGold prices may continue to rise this year due to persistent threats over financial recovery of the developed economies and concerns over inflation. Investment in gold is considered as a safe hedge against inflation.\r\n\r\n“Investors are worried about the price stability. The money supplied to the market in 2008 is posing threat of inflationary pressures. Investors, who do not believe that higher inflation will materialise, worry about the dollar outlook,” found the latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC).\r\n\r\nGold price rose for the ninth consecutive year in 2009 to end at $1087.50 (Rs 50,000) an ounce (28.3 gm), as against $869.50 an ounce at the end of 2008. The average gold price rose 11.5 per cent to $972.35 an ounce in 2009 from $871.96 an ounce during the previous year.\r\n\r\nRecovery in the global economy, especially in countries like India and China, is also likely to boost jewellery demand. However, jewellery was not a primary source of support for gold prices in 2009. Investment flows, dollar-hedging, inflation protection, and buying by central banks propelled the yellow metal to successive new highs, the report added.\r\n\r\nThe global economy began to show tentative signs of recovery since the second half of the year 2009. The pace remained uncertain. While some developing economies, like China, seem to recover at a healthy pace, their developed counterparts, in particular the US and Europe, are still far from returning to a “normal” rate of growth.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n"Gold is money; therefore a hedge against inflation and deflation"\r\n\r\nWarren Buffet one of the world''s most successful investors apparently once said the following about gold:\r\n"It gets dug out in Africa or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it.\r\nIt has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."\r\n\r\nWell, Mr Buffet let me attempt to explain to you and the "Martians" why this is so, as well as correct your statement (If it was your statement) that it has no utility.\r\n\r\nFirst of all, gold is money; it is not like other commodities that we use mostly in production, consumption etc. One of money''s main functions is to store wealth. We therefore earn money, we hoard it, we guard it and then we exchange it for assets when needed.\r\n\r\nGold is the premier store of wealth that this world has known for the last 3000 plus years. Even the fact that gold is not the official currency in the countries of the world has not changed this fact. I know of no place in the world, now or many years before, where gold is not known and not highly valued.\r\n\r\nSo in summary, gold is money and it derives its usefulness from being money and therefore people dig it out, melt it down and guard it like they would guard money.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nInflation, Deflation or Just Gold ?\r\n\r\nThe whole inflation versus deflation debate is actually much less important to me now that I understand the role of Gold. Gold protects against financial and fiat currency instability and a loss of confidence in "the powers that be." It is Gold''s time to shine as an asset class during this Kondratieff Winter, whether the Dollar does a Prechter deflationary death dance higher first or a straight Sinclair inflationary flop down to the 52 U.S. Dollar Index level (from the 75 close on Friday). People who only see "Dollar Up, Gold Down" and vice versa are missing the bigger picture. All global fiat currencies are sinking together, just at different rates. It is simply Gold''s turn as an asset class. Cycles. Greed. Fear. Gold will be a lousy investment again in 5-10 years, but it''s WAY TOO EARLY in the cycle to be worried about "the" top in Gold. Wake me when we get to $1500/oz. and I''ll be happy to revisit the issue (with another bullish commentary about how the next stop is $2,000). \r\n\r\nSo, whether its deflation or inflation or both, Gold is going higher. This a confidence issue and a secular cyclical phenomenon. "Gold good, stocks bad" is a trend set to continue.\r\n\r\nHaving said this, I still enjoy the inflation versus deflation debate. From a practical standpoint, as Martin Armstrong has said (see below), big money that moves currency markets can flow almost anywhere in the world to find a safe haven. In the early 1930s, capital flowed into the United States once the major economies like Britain and Switzerland abandoned the Gold standard, causing a crisis in confidence in these previously "good as Gold" currencies. This global flow of capital into the U.S. Dollar caused our Dollar to rise in relative value, aggravating the natural state of deflation we were experiencing at the time. \r\n\r\nNaturally, Europeans sought the safety of a foreign currency backed by Gold once their own currencies were aggressively devalued by discontinuing their respective Gold pegs. In fact, if the United States stuck to its guns, it probably would have lost all its Gold to the hoards of paper note-bearing European souls looking for real money. American citizens followed suit and traded their notes for Gold (benefit of a true Gold standard: no commissions or premiums!) - these evil Gold hoarders of course had to be stopped and/or punished. Gold was thus confiscated from American citizens (with safety deposit boxes at times watched by officials to prevent clandestine Gold ownership) and the American Gold standard was finally weakened to help break the cycle of Gold loss and deflation. An overnight 69% currency devaluation ($20.67/oz. to $35/oz.) and the criminalization of private Gold ownership in the United States (ending a "true" Gold standard period in this country) was all it took. As destructive as they were to confidence and people''s savings, these Roosevelt mandates helped fuel a weak reflationary cyclical general stock bull market (1933-1937 was not a weak cyclical bull market for Gold miners, by the way). \r\n\r\nWill we repeat a 1930s deflationary "collapse" scenario? Will we have a major currency event? Though deflationary forces are strong due to real estate and banking/credit/debt fiascos, confidence in the Dollar is low. The world''s greatest debtor nation has not inspired much confidence in global market participants seeking a safe haven. And I am not talking about bear market currency rallies here, I am talking about the dominant long-term trend. \r\n\r\nWill Bernanke and his U.S. Treasury lackeys finally destroy the last shred of confidence in Uncle Buck with their idiocracy? Will capital flow into or out of the United States when the next wave of the global crisis occurs? Again, not talking about dead cat bounces here, talking about the dominant long-term trend. Global capital flows have more control over the fate of the Dollar (and every international currency) than Ber-spank-me, but Benny''s actions can certainly cause some of our creditors to figure out sooner that it may be better to walk away and simply write off their bad debts. Whether you''ve chosen sides on the inflation/deflation debate or not, this debate does allow you to recognize the nasty war of fundamental forces that is sure to cause further economic chaos in any scenario.\r\n\r\nMe, I see further capital flight away from many financial casinos/markets around the world coming. I see a further loss of confidence in bankstas, Wall Street hustlers and paper magic notes designed to explode. I think some of this global money will be seeking a safe haven in Gold. I am not talking massive amounts of money, as Gold is a small market. I am talking about a few more "elephant" investors (i.e. governments, large private institutional funds) around the world deciding to up their physical Gold insurance from 1% to 5% of their portfolio. That''s all it would take to start/continue a big move higher in the Gold price from current levels.\r\n\r\nGold is safe, it is reliable, it requires no government assurances or bail-outs to stay in business, it does well when there is little confidence in the system and it is not debt-based. These are all things you want during a contractionary secular bear market in general stocks and real estate. Sure, governments can try to further tax or even confiscate Gold (again), but the government historically gets too tyrannical in trying to tax or confiscate all kinds of personal property at this stage of the economic cycle (including stocks and real estate). This is hardly a unique problem for those who take the plunge with Gold, despite paperbug concerns. At least Gold can be held quietly "off-ledger" until more rational minds prevail (this is not as easy with stocks and real estate).\r\n\r\nIn fact, if the government does "ban" Gold or tax it more excessively than it already does, nothing could be more patriotic than to completely ignore such a decree as a moral act of civil disobedience. By the way, if anyone in officialdom is reading, I sold all my Gold last year and this is just an academic intellectual exercise designed to make sure Americans follow everything their mama guvmint sez by pointing out the insanity of messing with Big Brother, who is all-knowing, all-powerful, and should never be disobeyed. I am a paperbug after all, I swear.\r\n\r\nI believe the global paper fiat system is breaking down. I believe people will increasingly trade their paper for Gold regardless of whether we undergo deflation or inflation. After a 20 year bear market from 1980-2000, Gold ain''t done after a 4 fold gain. Has everyone forgotten how paper fiat market bubbles and Gold manias work? \r\n\r\nI suppose that the economic events of the 1930s or 1970s, both inducing Gold and Gold stock manias, could not possibly happen again. Ever. 40 year intervals (if this is, perhaps, say a normal repetitive cycle) would put us at the 2010s for a new Gold mania, but Gold is dead as an asset class forever. Gold will never again have a serious bull market. Oil can go up 14 fold in 10 years but Gold couldn''t possibly go up even 10 fold in the same rough period (which would put us at $2500/ounce). The last bull market in Gold on a fiat paper system took Gold prices up 24 fold in 9 years ($35 to $850). The S&P 500 went up 16 fold from 1980 to 2000. This time, a 4 fold gain over a decade in a hated asset still considered worthless by the mainstream crowd is a bubble mania waiting to pop any second and take the Gold price back to Prechterite levels?! No sale, sorry…\r\n\r\nI believe $2,000/oz is a minimum conservative upside target for Gold and it wouldn''t shock me to get to $10,000/oz. Until the Dow to Gold ratio gets below 2, I wouldn''t even consider that the Gold bull market might be over. We''ve got a long ways to go. Ignore the short-term noise and the paperbugs. Forget the $25-50 swings. Sit tight and be right.\r\n\r\n\r\n—\r\nSource:\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n.
Why gold price will plunge to $800 per ounce\r\n\r\n\r\nDavos 2010: George Soros warns gold is now the ‘'ultimate bubble’' \r\n\r\nGold is now "the ultimate bubble", billionaire investor George Soros has declared, sparking fears that prices for the precious metal may soon suffer a tumble\r\n\r\nMr Soros, arguably the most famous hedge fund manager in history, warned that with interest rates low around the world, policymakers were risking generating new bubbles which could cause crashes in the future. In comments delivered on the fringe of the World Economic Forum, Mr Soros said: "When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold." \r\n\r\nAt the World Economic Forum two weeks ago, George Soros dubbed gold “the ultimate asset bubble.” Some commentators insist that the most recent rise in the gold price, beginning in late 2008, has been driven primarily by the single factor that has caused nearly all other assets to rise during this time: the weakening U.S. dollar. Indeed, the dollar’s renewed strength over the last 60 days has coincided with the decline in the gold price from its all-time high of $1,226.50 per ounce in early December.\r\n\r\n\r\nLONDON (Commodity Online): In the last few months, we have been reading predictions and forecasts from bullion analysts who insisted and argued that gold price is booming to touch $2,000, $3,000, $5,000, $10,000 per ounce in the coming years. \r\n\r\nThese forecasts have caught people’s attention who have been pouring money into gold and other precious metals all these months. But after the big surge of gold price to $1,227 per ounce some two months back, the yellow metal has been climbing down the ladder of speculation.\r\n\r\nDespite speculators going on the ‘'boom-in-gold-price predictions’', the yellow metal price has been sinking in the last two months. "If the gold price fall continues like this way, it is certain to touch down to $1,000 per ounce or below this level in the next one month," says bullion analyst Mark Robinson.\r\n\r\nRobinson, who is not a great bull on gold, says even if gold price falls to $900 or $800 per ounce, people should not complain. "For those who have invested in gold some years back, even $900 or $800 per ounce is a great price tag. So, there is no room for complaints even if gold price falls to realistic levels," he said.\r\n\r\nRobinson, a keen bullion watcher focusing on China, says that the Chinese government wants gold price to plunge to $800 per ounce level. "China''s biggest ambition these days is to build up gold reserves. For this, the best thing that China wants is a big fall in gold price so that it can buy more gold from IMF, gold miners and from the physical bullion market," argues Robinson.\r\n\r\nIt is not just Robinson who is a bear in gold price forecast. On Monday, a senior analyst with Citigroup came out with purely bearish prediction on gold. Citigroup bullion analyst Alan Heap said that gold prices could sink to $820 an ounce by 2014. \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nHere is that interesting article that published on the bearish prediction on gold: \r\n\r\n"NEW YORK (TheStreet) – gold prices could sink to $820 an ounce by 2014, in the absence of inflation or strong demand from China, says a Citigroup analyst \r\n\r\nAlan Heap, an analyst at Citi Investment Research, adds a bearish voice to a crowded debate over where the precious metal is headed. Billionaire investor James Rogers and perma-bear David Tice say gold will hit $2,500. James Turk , Author of GoldMoney, predicts $8,000, while author Mike Maloney is betting on $15,000.\r\n\r\nOver the last decade, gold prices have soared from $250 an ounce to an all-time high of $1,227 an ounce, with many analysts believing that gold is in a continued bull market despite short-term pullbacks. Heap broke with this bull view by saying in a research analysis, "Gold: Paper Problems," that prices will sink to $820 by June of 2014 and head lower long term to $700 an ounce.\r\n\r\nAs global economies print more money and lower interest rates to survive financial crises, gold becomes popular to own. As paper money loses value, investors turn to gold as an alternative safe haven asset.\r\n\r\nAs gold prices hit a record high of $1,227 an ounce, the U.S. dollar started to move towards its all-time low of $71.40. As the dollar loses value, commodities become cheaper to buy in other currencies. Many analysts expect low interest rates, President Obama''s $3.8 trillion budget plan, a raised deficit ceiling and money printing pressure the dollar and buoy gold prices. \r\n\r\nOver the last 10 years, investors have been diversifying into gold more than any other asset class. You no longer have to be a doom and gloom analyst or store gold bars in a bank in order to own the precious metal. Average institutional investors and world central banks have been increasing their gold holdings supporting high prices. Helping investors buy gold is the emergence of gold ETFs. There are now three physically backed ETFs available SPDR Gold Shares(GLD Quote), iShares Comex Gold(IAU Quote) and ETFS Gold Trust(SGOL Quote). \r\n\r\nCentral banks have become one of the biggest buyers of gold. Countries increase their gold reserves on a percentage basis, usually irrespective of the spot price. In the past year, countries like China, India and Russia have transitioned from being net sellers of gold to net buyers. Portugal holds 90% of its reserves in gold, while the U.S. has 70%. China currently only holds 1,054 tons of its reserves in gold, which is less than 2%. \r\n\r\nThe biggest threat to rising gold prices is a substantial decrease in long positions in paper markets, Heap writes in his report. "Positions held by money managers and broader non-commercial positions have fallen since November 2009 when the USD strengthened. Non-commercial net long positions are at 5x the average levels seen over the last 17 years." \r\n\r\nThe Euro reached a seven-month low against the U.S. dollar Friday, as sovereign debt fears in Spain, Portugal and Greece continued to devalue the currency. The dollar is playing the role of safe haven asset for investors jolted by global economic recovery fears lead them out of riskier commodities. There is also an expectation that the Federal Reserve might raise its key interest rate target sooner than expected, which would also support the currency. \r\n\r\nThe most popular physically backed ETF SPDR Gold Shares(GLD Quote) has seen a decline in tonnage since the beginning of 2010 from 1,128.74 to 1,104.54. Heap noted that ETF holdings are high, but stable. As long as worries over a global banking crisis subside, holdings should remain flat. \r\n\r\nA big driver for gold prices in 2009 was pent up demand from China. The country has recently increased its gold reserves to 1,054 tons from 600 tons and is expected to continue diversifying. However, recently the Chinese government ordered banks to increase their reserve ratio by 50 basis points and has encouraged them to restrict lending. China is targeting an 8% growth rate for 2010 instead of the 11% analysts had anticipated. \r\n\r\nChina''s emerging middle class has also unleashed significant gold buying in the physical market. According to the Citi report, from September 2008 to September 2009, China retail demand grew 20 tons out of 260 tons globally. There are worries that the country''s $585 billion stimulus program is slowing down, which would curb gold demand from retail investors as well as central banks Gold is typically seen as a hedge against inflation as investors buy the precious metal as an alternative asset. But Heap argues that it''s not actual inflation that correlates to gold prices, but inflationary expectations. According to the figure above in 2009, the U.S. Consumer Price Index dipped into negative territory, which means no inflation at all. However, gold prices kept rising. Heap thinks that inflationary expectations would have to skyrocket to boost gold; just a pick-up in inflation wouldn''t be the big mover in prices many analysts anticipate.".\r\n\r\n\r\nRead more:\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n.