Verdict on Temasek Indon case in Nov \r\n\r\nIndonesia''s competition regulator will decide by early November whether Temasek Holdings used its indirect stakes in the nation''s two biggest mobile-phone operators to fix prices, the agency''s chairman Mohammad Iqbal said.\r\n.\r\nTemasek owns indirect stakes in Indonesia''s biggest mobile-phone operator, PT Telekomunikasi Selular, and smaller rival PT Indosat, which together account for more than 75 per cent of the country''s 80 million users.\r\n.\r\nA complaint, which claimed Temasek was fixing call rates through its stakes in Telkomsel and Indosat, was filed last December.\r\n.\r\n"The allegations against Temasek are baseless and without merit," Temasek spokeswoman Myrna Thomas said in an e-mail.\r\n.\r\nTemasek owns about 54 per cent of SingTel, which has a 35-per-cent stake in Telkomsel, while fully-owned Temasek subsidiary ST Telemedia has a 40-per-cent stake in Indosat.\r\n.\r\nShe added: "We''ve demonstrated that Temasek is not involved in the investment or operational decisions of either SingTel or ST Telemedia, or SingTel''s or ST Telemedia''s respective investee companies."\r\n.\r\nThe "advanced examination stage" will end tomorrow and a ruling will be made 30 working days later, said Mr Iqbal. — BLOOMBERG \r\n\r\n(from www.todayonline.com)\r\n\r\nsemut makan gajah ? BTEL take TELKOMSEL or INDOSAT from TEMASEK? :-? :-? :-?
Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) \r\nPte.+ \r\nFordyanto Widjaja, CFA \r\nIndonesia Conglomerates/Industrials \r\nFordyanto.Widjaja@morganstanley.com \r\n+65 6834 6739 \r\nMiang Chuen Koh \r\nMiang.Chuen.Koh@MorganStanley.com \r\n+65 6834 6169 \r\nMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Rob Hart \r\nAsia Conglomerates Team Leader \r\nRob.Hart@morganstanley.com \r\n+852 2848 5068 \r\nM O RG A N S T A N LEY RESE A R CH \r\nA S I A /PA C IF I C \r\n\r\nAstra Agro Lestari \r\n\r\nLimited Upside Potential, \r\nDowngrading to EW \r\n\r\nStock Rating \r\nEqual-weight \r\nIndustry View \r\nAttractive \r\nWhat''s Changed \r\nRating Overweight to Equal-weight \r\nPrice Target Rp19,500 to Rp25,000 \r\n\r\nWe downgrade our rating on Astra Agro Lestari \r\n(AALI) to Equal-weight, even though we have \r\nrevised upwards our target price on the stock by \r\n28% to Rp25,000 – as our new target price implies only \r\n4.8% upside to the current price. At our target price, the \r\ncompany would trade at 2008 P/E of 15x and 2009 P/E \r\nof 14x, which are undemanding relative to the projected \r\nearnings growth of 38% and 12% for these respective \r\nyears. We would look to accumulate AALI if the stock \r\nprice pulled back to Rp20,000 and below. \r\n\r\nWe, however, continue to like the company due to \r\nits: 1) high earnings leverage against CPO price \r\nmoment, as 95% of its revenue is oil palm related; 2) \r\naggressive estate expansion and new planting \r\nprogram, targeting to add 280,000 ha of additional \r\nplanted area in the medium-term; 3) cost leadership, \r\nwhere its profit margins are on average 20% higher \r\nrelative to its peers; 4) strong balance sheet position, \r\nsupported by growing net-cash position; and 5) strong \r\nparent company backup, from Astra International. \r\n\r\nRisk to our call: 1) CPO price trend reversal; 2) delays \r\nin the implementation of bio-fuel act in Malaysia and \r\nIndonesia; 3) steep appreciation of the rupiah against \r\nthe US dollar, 4) lower-than-expected CPO production \r\nvolume and delays in the implementation of the \r\ncompany’s expansion program, impairing revenue \r\nlevels; and 5) higher-than-expected CPO production \r\ncosts, negatively impacting the company’s profit \r\nmargins.
CIMB RESEARCH\r\n\r\nOUTPERFORM Maintained Bakrie Sumatera RP2,175 @13/11/07\r\nStronger CPO price outlook Target: Rp2,500 Mkt.Cap: Rp8.2tr\r\nPlantations\r\nINDONESIA\r\n\r\nUpgrade CPO price forecasts\r\nRaising CPO price forecasts. We are raising our international CPO price forecasts\r\nby 3% to US$785 per tonne (CIF) for 2007, 17% to US$950 for 2008 and 18% to\r\nUS$920 for 2009 to account for recent changes in the supply-demand fundamentals\r\nof global edible oils. Following our revisions, we now expect international CPO prices\r\nto rise by 64% yoy in 2007 and 17% in 2008. Our price upgrade is drive by rising\r\nedible-oil demand on the back of higher crude oil prices, strong demand from China\r\nand India and rising supply risks from a potential switch in acreage from oilseeds to\r\ngrain products.\r\nChanges in assumptions. We have raised our 2007 CPO price forecast by only\r\n3.6%, mainly to account for the recent spike in prices, which are likely to remain high\r\nfor the rest of the year due to prevailing high crude oil prices. In our new price forecast\r\nfor 2008, we have assumed that the edible oil stock/usage ratio will drop at a higher\r\nrate of 1.65% than Oil World’s estimate of 0.5%, given slower supply growth due to\r\nincreasing competition for acreage from wheat products. This implies a US$165/tonne\r\ngain in CPO prices for 2008, based on historical data showing a US$10/tonne\r\nincrease in CPO prices for every 0.1%-pt change in the stock/usage ratio.\r\nWhat could derail the CPO upswing? Key risks to our price forecasts are lowerthan-\r\nexpected edible-oil demand due to the higher prices, larger-than-expected\r\nedible-oil supplies, the imposition of trade barriers on palm biodiesel, lower oil prices,\r\na pullback of government support for biodiesel and the threat of second-generation\r\nfeedstock for biofuel.\r\nValuation and recommendation\r\nFY07-09 core EPS forecasts increased by 8-39%. Incorporating our higher CPO\r\nprice assumptions, we have raised our FY07-09 core EPS estimates by 8-39%. Our\r\nCPO production forecasts, however, remain unchanged, at 176k-228k tonnes. We\r\nhave also raised our export tax assumptions for FY08-09 from 7.5% to 10%, in line\r\nwith the government’s new export tax policy.\r\nMaintain Outperform with higher target price of Rp2,500. We maintain our\r\nOutperform rating with a higher target price of Rp2,500 following our earnings upgrade\r\n(from Rp1,860). Our target remains based on a combination of EV/ha and 17.7x CY08\r\nP/E.\r\n\r\n\r\nOUTPERFORM Maintained Sampoerna Agro RP2,925 @13/11/07\r\nStronger CPO price outlook Target: Rp4,000 Mkt.Cap: Rp5.5tr\r\nPlantations\r\nINDONESIA\r\n\r\n\r\nValuation and recommendation\r\nFY07-09 core EPS forecasts increased by 7-34%. Incorporating the above, we have\r\nraised our core EPS estimates by 7-34% for FY07-09. We have maintained our CPO\r\nproduction forecasts at 235k-315k tonnes but adjusted our export tax assumptions\r\nfrom 7.5% to 10%, in line with Indonesia’s new export tax policy.\r\nTarget price raised to Rp4,000 from Rp3,190. Following our earnings upgrade, we\r\nhave raised our target price to Rp4,000, still based on 15x CY08 P/E. Maintain\r\nOutperform.\r\n\r\n Buy tbla before too late ??? :evil :evil :evil