Kilihatannya sektor-sektor finansial dan dow umumnya sudah sangat bearish. Sulit untuk lebih bearish lagi. Saya akan masuk long begitu candle stick sudah memberikan signal reversal.
sabar bung IS…kalau cuman buat trading sih ok lah…udah lumayan dalam.
tapi buat invest belum. Ada 2 sektor yang kalau lagi bearish gak kelihatan dasarnya… Financial dan Property….alasan simple aja… dua sektor itu hutangnya paling banyak.
As banks clamp down, U.S. economy feels the pinch\r\nThu Jan 17, 2008 11:47am EST\r\n \r\nEmail | Print |\r\nShare\r\n| Reprints | Single Page | Recommend (0)\r\n Text \r\nPhoto\r\n1 of 1Full Size\r\nRelated News\r\nCentral banks join forces to ease credit crisis\r\n12 Dec 2007\r\nFed, ECB, other cenbanks announce liquidity moves\r\n12 Dec 2007\r\nInvestors dump stocks after Fed’s modest rate cut\r\n11 Dec 2007\r\nStocks tumble after Fed’s modest rate move\r\n11 Dec 2007\r\nDemocratic candidates weigh in on mortgage crisis\r\n05 Dec 2007\r\n \r\npowered by Sphere Sphere\r\nMarket News\r\nRecession fears to weigh on earnings reports\r\nWall St. drops as Bush rescue plan disappoints | Video\r\nSprint shares tumble\r\nMore Business & Investing News…\r\nFeatured Broker sponsored link\r\nMoney Center\r\n$0 stock trades. 10 free per month.\r\n\r\nBy Dan Wilchins and Emily Kaiser - Analysis\r\n\r\nNEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Stung by billions of dollars in bad debts, U.S. banks are clamping down on lending standards, making borrowing costlier for the consumers and companies that are the best hope for keeping the limping economy out of recession.\r\n\r\nEconomists are increasingly worried that reluctant banks plus skittish borrowers create a recipe for economic disaster, and even aggressive interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve may not be enough to prevent a downturn.\r\n\r\n"It''s a vicious cycle. As banks tighten up lending standards, credit is harder to get, which is worse for the economy, which makes banks tighten up more," said Ray Soifer, chairman of bank consulting firm Soifer Consulting. "Fed rate cuts will have some impact, but cutting rates by itself does not improve the availability of credit."\r\n\r\nThe central bank''s Beige Book survey of economic conditions released on Wednesday showed that both business and consumer lending activity slowed from mid-November through December, with most regions reporting tighter credit conditions.\r\n\r\nBanks have reason to be concerned about credit quality as U.S. consumers struggle to stay current on a growing pile of debt.\r\n\r\nAmerican Express Co (AXP.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which traditionally focuses on wealthier consumers less exposed to an economic slowdown, said that delinquencies suddenly ticked up in December.\r\n\r\nCitigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which is raising at least $14.5 billion of new capital and cutting its dividend to help repair its balance sheet, said fourth-quarter credit costs for U.S. consumer loans jumped because of rising delinquencies in credit cards, mortgages, and auto and personal loans.\r\n\r\nBorrowers with clean credit histories will still find lenders willing to push money their way, but the easy money that kept the economy rolling in recent years has dried up as banks, hobbled by the U.S. subprime mortgage mess, scramble to shore up their balance sheets.\r\n\r\nDeutsche Bank estimates that losses from subprime mortgage loans will reach $300 billion to $400 billion, of which one-quarter will probably fall on the banking sector.\r\n\r\n"We are more optimistic than some observers who have predicted a major credit crunch as a result of writeoffs on subprime loans," they wrote in a note to clients. "At the same time, however, we expect the balance sheet repairing process to reduce banks'' inclination to extend new credit, resulting in higher lending rates and tighter lending standards."\r\n\r\nPAY NOW, PAY LATER\r\n\r\nThere are already subtle signs that consumer credit terms are tightening, and that could be particularly painful for the U.S. economy because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.\r\n\r\nCredit card issuers are mailing out fewer solicitations, according to Credit Suisse research. The credit card industry mailed out 595 million offers in November, 3.0 percent lower than October and 11.0 percent below a year ago.\r\n\r\nLoans from auto dealers have not kept pace with the Fed''s interest rate cuts. The average interest rate on new car loans was higher in November than it was in August, even though the central bank lowered benchmark overnight rates by three-quarters of a percentage point over that period. It has since reduced them a further quarter percentage point.\r\n\r\nWobbly financial markets aren''t helping matters either. In the asset-backed securities market, where consumer loans are typically packaged and sold, investors are demanding richer compensation for taking on risks. That is raising borrowing costs for lenders, and they will no doubt seek to recoup those expenses, Credit Suisse analyst Gary Balter said.\r\n\r\nFederal Reserve data show that household debt grew at a 7.0 percent annual rate to a whopping $13.6 trillion in the third quarter of 2007. However, the growth rate slowed from the first half of the year, primarily because the housing market downturn has reduced demand for mortgage-related debt.\r\n\r\nOn the corporate side, loan volume for companies with high credit ratings remains robust, in part because businesses are relying less on other funding avenues, such as commercial paper. But junk-rated companies are expected to borrow less in 2008 than they did last year, because banks and investors are much less interested in taking that risk.\r\n\r\n"Some businesses will now decide to wait before making capital purchases. Banks are tightening up on credit, and consumers and businesses are more worried about the economy, too. Clearly the probability of recession is higher," said Chris Chmura, chief economist at consulting firm Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond, Virginia.