Highlights\r\n\r\n• Aneka Tambang: May issue US$750m bonds to finance gold mine acquisition\r\n\r\n• Wijaya Karya: New contracts worth Rp7.6 in 2008\r\n\r\n• Bank BNI: Board of director replacement \r\n\r\n• Bank Mega: To issue Rp1t subordinate bond\r\n\r\n• IPO update: Bank Ekonomi Raharja\r\n\r\n• Property: Govt to issue new tax regulation on REITs \r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Dow Jones corrected -0,7% on the last day 2007. We prefer oil price related, CPO, and small caps stocks. Based on gap chart , today our target index level is 2731. Trading range is between 2694-2716-2731 (supports) and 2753-2760-2782 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• ENRG: Positive sentiment from increasing oil price supported by trendline up is still intact. Target is Rp1600. BUY \r\n\r\n• BMRI: Middle line of daily Bollinger band cuts the last candle, meanwhile it also shows golden cross moving average (MACD). BUY
Our Comment\r\n\r\nDirector General of Taxation stated that the government may cut taxes by 5% (e.g. from 30% to 25%) for publicly listed companies with 40% or more free float The purpose is to encourage more firms to list shares on the stock exchange. The proposed tax incentive will be effective starting 1 January 2008 and is not retroactive. The new proposal for a tax rate cut would also benefit the already publicly listed companies with their free floats more than 40%. Those companies include among others Astra International (49.9%), Bakrie & Brothers (52.9%), Bakrie Telecom (42.7%), Bank Central Asia (46.7%), Bank Rakyat Indonesiia (43.1%), Berlian Laju Tanker (50.5%), Bumi Resources (78.1%), Ciputra Development (53.5%), Ciputra Property (40.2%), Ciputra Surya (40.1%), Citra Marga (71.5%), Indofood (48.5%), Indosat (44.9%), Kalbe Farma (46.5%), Medco (48.3%), Mitra Adiperkasa (43.4%), Multistrada Arah Sarana (43.5%), Perusahaan Gas Negara (44.5%), Telkom (48.2%) and United Tractors (41.5%). \r\n\r\nOil price is still hovering around US$99-100/barrel. Contrary to previous indication, OPEC suggests that it may not add output in the next meeting. Energy stocks (i.e., Perusahaan Gas Negara, Medco Energi, Bumi Resources, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam) will benefit from the high oil price. CPO producers are also the beneficiaries. Our picks in the sector are Astra Agro and Bakrie Sumatra. The latter will also enjoy strong rubber prices resulting from the high oil prices. \r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Truba: Truba unit plans to IPO next month\r\n\r\n• Bank Lippo: Two board members resign\r\n\r\n• Alfa Retailindo: Divesture ownership in subsidiary\r\n\r\n• Hortus: To conduct rights issue 1:3\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Dow Jones ended up +0,1% last night, regional markets are still facing selling pressure. JCI will test 2672 as gap level, or 2644 as Fibonacci retracement on trading sessions. Trading range is between 2669-2690-2702 (supports) and 2722-2730-2750 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• SGRO: TD sequential buy set up and buy countdown into 6th days. Positive impact from strong CPO price. BUY \r\n\r\n• PGAS: Daily exponential moving average (EMA) confirmed cross signal to continue correction. Target trendline is Rp13750. BUY
KIM ENG INDONESIA TECHNICAL POINTER - DRAFT\r\nSenin, 07 January 2008\r\n\r\nPrediksi Kami\r\n\r\n• Faktor-faktor Penguatan: Pasar saham kita mengalami apresiasi secara mencolok dengan penutupan 2765 dengan nilai transaksi Rp5,7t lebih ramai dibandingkan 2 hari sebelumnya, kondisi ini dimotori oleh rencana insentif pajak yang akan diberikan oleh pemerintah, meski Rupiah melemah Rp9435 Jumat. Selain itu overnight antara Bank kita tetap berada di 3,3% selama 4 hari perdagangan, sebagai tanda banyaknya likuiditas \r\n• Chart IHSG: Indeks regional sebagian terkoreksi pembukaan pagi ini. Dow Jones melemah -2,0% pada penutupan Jumat. Tetapi Indeks China dan India masih bergerak positif. IHSG ada peluang menguat dulu, mengantisipasi BI Rate besok, meski target bawah IHSG beradi di Fibonacci di 2644. Kisaran perdagangan dengan support 2645-2698-2731 dan resistance 2784-2802-2855.\r\n \r\n\r\nChart Pilihan\r\n\r\nSGRO – Rp4125 – BUY ON WEAKNESS \r\n• Support Rp3825. Resistance Rp4275 \r\n• Terbentuk pola CUP, dalam jangka panjang masih positif \r\n• Bullish harami dan TD sequential buy set up sudah masuk minggu konfirmasi. \r\n• Namun tidak demikian dengan Bollinger band harian dan stochastic 9 hari, untuk melemah temporer. \r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nBUMI – Rp6350 – BUY ON WEAKNESS \r\n• Support Rp6100. Resistance Rp6550\r\n• Kemarin harga sudah menembus batas resistance dari garis trendline yang ada\r\n• Mingguan dari TD sequential adalah buy set up minggu ke-7. \r\n• Target trendline kami dari awal tetap di Rp6600
Our Comment\r\n\r\nThe government indicates it may privatize further some banks (i.e., BNI, Bank Mandiri, BRI). The privatization, and mergers of a number of banks (I.e., BII-Bank Danamon, and Bank Lippo-Bank Niaga) will act as catalysts for the banking sector. Otherwise, we expect this year to be a consolidation one for the sector as the series of rate cut are near to an end.\r\n\r\nThe Central Bank is likely to maintain its benchmark rate on its meeting tomorrow as inflationary pressure resulted from strong commodity prices still lingers. Our regional economist predicts the Central Bank to cut rate by 25 bps only in H208. \r\n\r\nThe US and regional markets are still in the red this morning triggered by poor unemployment data in the US. Oil price, however, has declined to below US$98/barrel.\r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Total (HOLD): Management estimates 38% revenue growth in FY08\r\n\r\n• P Gas (BUY): No further divestment by government\r\n\r\n• Panorama Sentrawisata: Net profit grew by 300% Y/Y in FY07 and stock split plan\r\n\r\n• Indal Aluminium: Expect 20% sales growth in FY08\r\n\r\n• Banking: Govt considers further divestments \r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Dow Jones closed -2,0%, and regional markets followed the same direction. We expect minor technical rebound today, but we maintain JCI target of 2644 as Fibonacci retracement for next week. Trading range is between 2645-2698-2731 (supports) and 2784-2802-2855 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• SGRO: Weekly chart reflected a cup pattern (positive in long term), but daily stochastic indicator (9 days) signals minor correction. BUY ON WEAKNESS\r\n\r\n• BUMI: Shooting price on Friday, temporary pull back is likely. Target trendline is Rp6600. BUY ON WEAKNESS
…\r\n\r\n• PGAS: Daily exponential moving average (EMA) confirmed cross signal to continue correction. Target trendline is Rp13750. BUY\r\n\r\nIs that a Typo?\r\nHarga sekarang 15000an Target Rp 13750. Buy??
…\r\n\r\n• PGAS: Daily exponential moving average (EMA) confirmed cross signal to continue correction. Target trendline is Rp13750. BUY\r\n\r\nIs that a Typo?\r\nHarga sekarang 15000an Target Rp 13750. Buy??\r\n\r\n\r\nbiasalah, kim eng salah ketik :p \r\nmaksutnya 15.750 :hug: \r\n\r\nuntuk yang rekomendasi di bawah sendiiri itu rekomendasi yang bersifat trading harian, kalo untuk yang medium term dia review sendiri disertai dengan alasan fundamental :malu:
Our Comment\r\n\r\nA newspaper reported that an unnamed source indicated that Bakrie & Brothers may be planning acquisitions of three strategic companies in property, mining and energy sectors.\r\n\r\nTo do so, the company may issue rights (1:1 or even higher dilution at Rp250) and raise debts.\r\n\r\nAccording to the daily, the funds raised are estimated to be around Rp45 trillion. President Director of Bakrie & Brothers denied to comment on the above. The report triggered speculation that Bakrie & Brothers will conduct internal acquisitions of Bakrieland, Energi Mega Persada and Bumi Resources. Market cap of Bakrie & Brothers is US$757 million while combined market cap of the above companies is US$17 billion (Energi Mega’s is US$2.3b, Bakrieland’s is US$1.4b and Bumi’s is US$13.2b). We are contacting the company In the mean time, maintain HOLD recommendation\r\n\r\nThe US and regional markets are opened lightly positive this morning. Oil price has declined to around US$95/barrel.\r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Bakrie & Brothers (HOLD): Rumors on acquisition\r\n\r\n• Bumi Resources: To seek US$375m loan\r\n\r\n• Ciputra Surya: To obtain Rp450b loan for Ciputra World project\r\n\r\n• Tunas Baru Lampung : To seek Rp600b loan for expansion\r\n\r\n• Panorama Sentrawisata: To conduct rights issue and SPO to increase free float\r\n\r\n• Panin Sekuritas: Stock split schedule \r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Dow Jones ended minor up +0,2% last night, and same tone for regional bourses this morning. Today, our target index is 2791-2805 as moderate level, referring to peak of ‘wave b’ line. Trading range is between 2673-2717-2746 (supports) and 2791-2806-2850 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• SGRO: Relative strength index (RSI) in overbought zone and three white soldiers suggest to take profit action. Long term target is Rp4825. TAKE PROFIT\r\n\r\n• UNVR: We prefer to this stock, based on: big market caps, technical rebound to impulse wave 3, increasing of trading volume (last 10 days). Near target wave is Rp7200. BUY
Our Comment\r\n\r\nBank Indonesia maintained rate on its meeting yesterday. Last month Bank Indonesia surprised the market by cutting its policy rate 25 bps to 8%. It cited slowing November headline inflation and its optimism for a long-term declining trend. It said November headline inflation slowed to 0.18% m-m from October’s 0.79%. However, in the succeeding month it picked up to an even higher 1.1%. Our regional economist expects an unchanged BI rate until end of H108. As the series of interest rate cuts are close to an end, 2008 is expected to be a consolidation year for interest-sensitive stocks. For banking sector, however, there will still be a catalyst in the form of M&A activities (i.e., BII-Danamon and Lippo-Niaga).\r\n\r\nThe US and regional markets are in the red this morning. Oil price was up to over US$96/barrel.\r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Holcim: Indicated 9.3% FY07 net profit growth\r\n\r\n• Wijaya Karya: Targetting 40% FY08 net profit growth\r\n\r\n• Tiga Pilar: Loan and rights issue plans\r\n\r\n• IPO: Elnusa \r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Dow Jones showed deep correction (-1,8%) this morning, meanwhile oil price is back to over US$96/ barrel. On the JCI chart: we see double top as strong resistance level, potentially pulling back until trendline support at 2757. Trading range is between 2728-2757-2771 (supports) and 2800-2814-2842 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• ASRI: Crossing exponential moving average (EMA) and flag pattern are our arguments to recommend a BUY on this stock.\r\n\r\n• DEWA: Limited downside from corrective wave 2 until Rp640, good entry to anticipate a technical rebound. BUY ON WEAKNESS