Research ZP

Our Comment\r\n\r\nPerusahaan Gas share price was down by 11% to Rp2075 yesterday (first day after stock split). We believe the main reason was that very likely Perusahaan Gas will revise down its target on gas volume from distribution business. Previously, management has provided guidance that gas volume from distribution business to reach 716 MMscfd in 2008. During our phone conversation, management claims that some clients are still not able to provide connecting pipelines to those owned by Perusahaan Gas. Corporate Secretary was quoted by media saying that the clients include state owned electric company PLN which will not complete its pipeline to Muara Tawar by this month. We expect management to announce the revision by upcoming week. While the magnitude is still in question, we believe 15% revision below previous target or 609 MMscfd is likely. Due to so many risks surrounding Perusahaan Gas Negara operations, we are going to revisit our forecast and recommendation. \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nExcelcomindo is planning to increase free float through private placement by Telekom Malaysia , the company’s majority shareholder. In relation to the above, Exelcomindo will provide assistance in the form of conducting due diligence, preparing offering circular, going on road shows, being involved in the agreements including representation, warranties, undertaking and indemnities) . The above involves conflict of interests, hence it needs approval from independent shareholders. The company will also seek shareholder approval related to its plan to sell its tower business. EGM will be conducted on 3 September 2008. We expect positive sentiment on the stock related to the plans above.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nThe US market edged lower due to lingering credit fears. Oil and commodity prices were slightly down this morning.\r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• P Gas Negara: To downgrade distribution sales volume target\r\n\r\n• CP Prima: Revenue rose 42%\r\n\r\n• Excelcomindo: Free float increase and tower business\r\n\r\n• Bank Danamon: To raise US$300m\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: We saw daily TD sequential sell countdown 6th day. Death cross on exponential moving average (EMA 26 days). Today’s trading range is between 2181-2204-2215 (supports) and 2238-2248-2270 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• TLKM: Moving average 10 days signals a continued rally. TRADING BUY \r\n\r\n• INCO: Share price shows reversal, but overbought. Looking forward on daily TD sequential sell countdown 8th days, with target price at Rp3800. TAKE PROFIT/EXIT
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During our company visit to Arpeni Pratama, management explains that delivery of cape size vessels is on schedule. The cape size vessels are of huge capacity (+150,000 DWT) and will significantly boost the company’s growth. At 5.1x 2009F PER, valuation is attractive. BUY, TP is Rp850.\r\n\r\nDuring conference call yesterday, Telkom downgraded revenue growth target for 2008 to 11%-14%, lower than 15% previously. The company posted poor result as it lost market share in cellular subscribers and ARPU fell as Telkom cut tariffs starting 1 April 2008. Telkom is facing challenges in the tight competition environment. Maintain HOLD.\r\n\r\nMedia reported that Bank Negara Malaysia proposed to Bapepam to allow Maybank to divest its shares in BII within three to five years period after the acquisition. The daily also indicated the Bapepam may agree with such proposal, as regulation in IX H.1 about take over allows extension the divestment period up to five years. However, chairman of Bapepam Fuad Rahmany said no official proposal has been received so far. \r\n\r\nIt is reported that about 2.1m tons of Malaysian CPO production is not fully absorbed by its downstream domestic industry. Hence, Malaysia may export CPO to lower the inventory. The country also plans to boost its biodiesel production. Going forward, the government of Malaysia plans to coordinate with that of Indonesia to maintain CPO price at RM2000-3000 per ton. Malaysia ’s plan to export its CPO, instead of downstream products like it normally did, will put further downward pressure on CPO price in H208. However, we see that such coordination is not easy to take place. At the moment, CPO price is hovering around RM2850/ton\r\n\r\nThis morning the US market was up robustly while oil and commodity prices are down sharply. \r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Semen Gresik (BUY): To seek Rp5t debt for acquisition\r\n\r\n• Arpeni Pratama (BUY): Positive outlook\r\n\r\n• Telkom (HOLD): Downgrades revenue growth target\r\n\r\n• Energi Mega Persada: To acquire three assets \r\n\r\n• Inco: H108 net profit fell 58%\r\n\r\n• BII: Government may allow Maybank divestment in 3-5 years\r\n\r\n• Plantation: High CPO inventory in Malaysia\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Shares are likely to trade flat or lower, according to support trend line at 2110 and pivot point at 2117. Today’s trading range is between 2117-2153-2170 (supports) and 2206-2225-2261 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• MEDC: The stock has broken up of trend line, strong signal to continue upside until our target at Rp5300. TRADING BUY \r\n\r\n• WIKA: Increasing volume in the last 10 days, and GMMA tool on reversal. TRADING BUY
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Our Comment\r\n\r\nMedco announced it is planning to develop oil & gas field in Area 47, Libya , estimated cost is about US$600m. Production of 50K bpd is expected to resume starting 2010. Medco was reported to expect this year’s net profit to hover around US$300m, almost three times of our net profit estimate at US$108m. Medco expectation may include extraordinary gains from divestment of 6 assets. Maintain BUY, TP is Rp6650 (33% potential upside). \r\n\r\nAneka Tambang announced it discontinued agreement with Inco to supply nickel ore, it will use its own reserve instead. This is expected to reduce cash cost (around US$1/pound per management estimate). However, cash cost is expected to remain high due to pressure from increase in diesel price. We see that weakening nickel price will continue to put pressure on Aneka Tambang future outlook. Maintain SELL, TP is at Rp1,575 (27% potential downside). \r\n\r\nThis morning the US market was down nearly 2% as oil price increased. \r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Medco Energi (BUY): To develop Area 47 Libya\r\n\r\n• Aneka Tambang (SELL): Discontinued ore supply from Inco\r\n\r\n• Bank Mandiri: To acquire Indover Bank\r\n\r\n• New IPO: ANJ Agri to conduct IPO in October 2008\r\n\r\n• Kedawung Setia: H108 results\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Charts of some commodities indicate minor upside, positive for Indonesia shares. We prefer coal stocks related, and banking stocks. Interestingly, moving average 14 days and GMMA will move positive crossover. Today’s trading range is between 2156-2174-2186 (supports) and 2205-2211-2229 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• BDMN: Morning star signal in candlestick is confirmed by a white candle, as strong reversal pattern. The other side, moving average 14 days is positive too. TRADING BUY \r\n\r\n• PNBN: Many reasons for positive direction: Corrective wave 4 has completed, and daily TD sequential buy countdown. TRADING BUY
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Our Comment\r\n\r\nGaikindo (Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries) indicated car sales to come in at 60,650 units in July (11% M/M, 58% Y/Y), an all time high. We see that the strong car sales was driven by the Indonesia Motor Show, the country’s largest automotive exhibition conducted annually, in July. We expect Astra International to also show strong sales. Maintain BUY on Astra International, TP is Rp28,200.\r\n\r\nRamayana same-store-growth came in at 18.4% Y/Y in 7M08. That accounts for 48.5% of the company’s FY08 guideline. We see that the company’s revenue will pick up in the second semester boost by strong demand driven by the festive season. As the growth data are in line with expectations, maintain HOLD, TP is Rp780.\r\n\r\nThe US market surged 2.65% as oil price dropped and the US dollar rebounded. Asian markets opened this morning were up strongly.\r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Ramayana (HOLD): Sales grew 18.4% Y/Y in 7M08\r\n\r\n• Truba Alam Manunggal: To conduct a rights issue\r\n\r\n• BII: Bapepam awaits answer before removing trading suspension\r\n\r\n• Jasa Marga: To obtain Rp2.8t loan\r\n\r\n• Automotive sector: All-time-high car sales in July \r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Moving average 14 days and technical reversal from middle line of Bollinger band give strong signal for upward direction. Weekly chart TD sequential has completed sell set up 9th. Today’s trading range is between 2145-2170-2183 (supports) and 2209-2222-2248 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• BUMI: Hammer style in candlestick confirmed with long white candle, a positive sign. Our moving average target price is Rp6000. TRADING BUY \r\n\r\n• PNLF: Moving average 50 days shows strong reversal, supported by completion in corrective wave 4th . TRADING BUY
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