Our Comment\r\n\r\nBukit Asam reported H108 net profit more-than-doubled that of previous year. The strong result was supported by 60% revenue growth on the back of 45% sales volume increase. The result is in line with our expectation. The company’s President Director raised its FY08 sales forecast to Rp7t from Rp6t previously. Maintain BUY, TP is Rp18,200 (28% potential upside). \r\n\r\nFive ministers (Minister of Industry, Minister of State Owned Enterprises, Minister of Energy & Mineral Resources, Minister of Labour and Minister of Domestic Affairs) signed a joined regulation that requires factories operating in the areas with electricity deficit to switch two working days in a month to weekends (Saturday and Sunday). The aim is to smoothen utilization of electricity during weekdays-weekends to reduce deficit. Utilization of electricity is at its peak during weekdays and is significantly lower during weekends. Details for implementation of the regulations will be completed this week.\r\n\r\nIn H108 total investment realization in Indonesia was up by 56% Y/Y. Realization of foreign investment was up 153% Y/Y to US$4.1b. Domestic investment, however, was down 70% Y/Y to US$0.94b. One possible reason is the tightening of investment credit by local banks.\r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Bukit Asam (BUY): H108 net profit more than doubled\r\n\r\n• Global Mediacom: Obtained US$225m loan\r\n\r\n• Investment up sharply\r\n\r\n• Indonesian consumer confidence dropped\r\n\r\n• Ministers signed joined policy to reduce power deficit\r\n\r\n• Panorama Transportasi: H108 results\r\n\r\n• Surya Semesta Internusa: H108 results\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Weekly chart indicated TD sequential is in sell set up 5th weeks, and widen moving average 25-50 days. Our long target index is at 2183, according to corrective wave 2. Today’s trading range is between 2200-2232-2246 (supports) and 2278-2296-2328 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• ASII: The share price has been moving sideways for a long time. Overall, impulse wave 3 is strong signal for entry. TRADING BUY \r\n\r\n• PNBN: Daily TD sequential buy set up 4th and supporting long white candle pattern, still bull. TRADING BUY

Thans Sheraphine atas sharingnya menggantikan Violine

Our Comment\r\n\r\nMinister of Finance stated that the government may cut taxes by 5% (e.g. from 30% to 25%) for publicly listed companies with 40% or more free float The purpose is to encourage more firms to list shares on the stock exchange. The new proposal for a tax rate cut would also benefit the already publicly listed companies with their free floats more than 40%. Those companies include among others Astra International (49.9%), Bakrie & Brothers (52.9%), Bakrie Telecom (42.7%), Bank Central Asia (46.7%), Bank Rakyat Indonesiia (43..1%), Berlian Laju Tanker (50.5%), Bumi Resources (78.1%), Ciputra Development (53.5%), Ciputra Property (40.2%), Ciputra Surya (40.1%), Citra Marga (71.5%), Indofood (48.5%), Indosat (44.9%), Kalbe Farma (46.5%), Medco (48.3%), Mitra Adiperkasa (43.4%), Multistrada Arah Sarana (43.5%), Perusahaan Gas Negara (44.5%), Telkom (48.2%) and United Tractors (41.5%).\r\n\r\nBisnis Indonesia quoted an unnamed source stating that Telkom’s Q208 net profit growth is lower than that of Q108. Telkom’s Finance Director did not confirm or deny the above. He indicated that Telkom maintains target of FY08 revenue growth at 13%-15% and net profit growth of 11%-12%. Net add of subscribers is expected at 9-10 million this year, about 50% of the market growth. We see that Q208 performance is most likely poor given that the company cut tariff starting 1 April 2008 in relation to the new interconnection rule. In addition, there has been a price war among the telco operators with Telkomsel being hit the most given its large subscriber base. We are waiting for the Q208 result, in the mean time, HOLD.\r\n\r\nBisi International reported H108 net profit grew 328% Y/Y to Rp206b on the back of 105% sales growth. The result is in line with our expectation. BUY, TP is Rp6,100 (42% potential upside).\r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• BISI International (BUY): Net profit soared 328% Y/Y in H108\r\n\r\n• Sampoerna Agro (BUY): Robust H108 sales\r\n\r\n• Wijaya Karya (BUY): Canceled acquisition plan\r\n\r\n• Telkom (HOLD): Q208 net profit growth slows down \r\n\r\n• Bumi Resources (BUY): Plans to delist Herald Resources\r\n\r\n• Duta Graha: To consider share buyback \r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Daily TD sequential still shows sell countdown 5th days, and room for downside from weekly chart. Picks; banking stocks. Today’s trading range is between 2096-2139-2167 (supports) and 2209-2223-2265 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• BBCA: Crossing over from exponential moving average (EMA) and middle line of Bollinger band. TRADING BUY \r\n\r\n• BMRI: Positive direction from moving average 14-25 days angel. TRADING BUY

Our Comment\r\n\r\nThe Central Bank finally approved Maybank acquisition on Bank International Indonesia and a plan to conduct a tender offer in relation to the above acquisition. Previously Maybank has stated intention to make a tender offer for the remaining 44.3% shares of BII at Rp510 per share. \r\n\r\nUnited Tractors showed strong June sales figures. Komatsu sold 505 units in June 08 (+21% M/M)or 2492 units in H108 (+44% Y/Y). Pamapersada produced 5m tons of coal (-6% MM) or 29.3m tons in H108 (+23% Y/Y). Overall, June performance, especially in heavy equipment, is above expectation. We recommend investors to subscribe to rights issue.\r\n\r\nCharoen Pokphand Indonesia booked net profit increase of 121Y/Y to Rp210b in H108 on the back of 64% revenue growth. Overall result is above our expectation. Maintain BUY, our TP is under review.\r\n\r\nFajar Surya reported H108 net profit of Rp138.3b, up 70% Y/Y. The result is in line with our expectation. Revenue was up 37% Y/Y to Rp1,677b, supported by 25% higher selling price and 9% volume growth. Fajar is planning to increase production capacity by 300,000 tpa of corrugated medium paper, requiring US$85 million. The new machine (PM5) is expected to start operation by mid 2010. Maintain BUY, TP is Rp2,100.\r\n\r\nBisnis Indonesia quoted an unnamed source stating that China Construction Bank intends to acquire 20% of Bank Negara Indonesia from the government.\r\n\r\nThe US market was up as oil price declined. \r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Fajar Surya (BUY): H108 result in line\r\n\r\n• Charoen Pokphand (BUY): H108 net profit above expectation\r\n\r\n• United Tractors: Strong June sales figures\r\n\r\n• Catur Sentosa: H108 net profit up 120%\r\n\r\n• BII: Central Bank approved Maybank acquisition\r\n\r\n• BNI: China Construction Bank intends to acquire\r\n\r\n• Destinasi: H108 results\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: There are no changing direction from TD sequential angel to sell countdown, and trend line weekly chart. Some of property and banking stocks have completed corrective wave, that means a potential upside. Today’s trading range is between 2155-2180-2196 (supports) and 2222-2232-2257 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• BBCA: Moving average (12-26 days) and Fibonacci are still in reversal with new target Rp3025. TRADING BUY \r\n\r\n• AALI: Daily TD sequential sell countdown 5th days indicated a correction. Trend in moving average 200 days is in the same direction. EXIT

Wednesday , 23 July 2008\r\nMASA: FY08F net profit may reach Rp80bn (MASA , Rp225 , Neutral , TP Rp220)\r\n• We met MASA’s president director yesterday , and we point out an interesting fact about the company. The management claims that gross margin may continue to expand although raw material prices have increased significantly , from 17.6% in FY07. \r\n• It is mainly because they have slightly reduced the usage of materials on its products and have shifted to ultra-high performance tires , which offers higher margins (around 20.0% higher than a commodity tire size). Average 1H08 costs grew by around 20% yoy , whereas selling price has increased by around 25.0% yoy and the management will continue to adjust up their selling price by 5.0% this year. \r\n• Thus , the company targets FY08 revenue and net profit to reach Rp1.3bn (+44.7% yoy) and Rp80bn (+174.0% yoy) , respectively. Those numbers are above our expectations of Rp1.2tn and Rp67bn , respectively. Currently MASA is trading at PER08-09F of 20.4x-15.0x vs its peers Gajah Tunggal (GJTL , Rp390 , Not rated) of around 4.2x-3.3x. \r\nfor more information please klik at www.fedyromamti.blogspot.com for recomendation and consultation indonesian stock

Our Comment\r\n\r\nBank Central Asia reported 12% net profit growth in H108, in line with analyst consensus. The net profit growth was supported by 14% growth in net interest income on the back of 49% loan growth (gross). Corporate lending was up 65% while consumer lending was up 56%. Gross NPL was down to 0.7% from 1.4%.\r\n\r\nAKR Corporindo reported H108 net profit growth of 103% Y/Y, above our expectation. BUY, TP is Rp1,800 (65% potential upside).\r\n\r\nAneka Tambang indicated cost of an alumina smelter in Tayan will increase by around US$100m (29% of previous estimate) to US$450m mainly due to higher steel prices.\r\n\r\nThe US market dropped amid increase in oil price and weak housing data. Price of palm oil is up over 2% this morning, providing support to the plantation stocks recently hit by negative sentiment over oil price decline. Nickel price was down 6% this morning. \r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• AKR Corporindo (BUY): Net profit H108 above our expectation\r\n\r\n• Bank Central Asia: Net profit increased 12% Y/Y in H108\r\n\r\n• Sorini: Net profit soared 110% Y/Y in H108\r\n\r\n• Aneka Tambang: Alumina plant cost to rise by US$100m\r\n\r\n• BII: Bapepam requires BII to maintain 20% free float\r\n\r\n• Indah Kiat: Bondholders’ meeting did not reach quorum\r\n\r\n• Mandom Indonesia: HI08 results\r\n\r\n• Mustika Ratu: H108 results\r\n\r\n• Wom Finance: H108 results\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Market was successfully reaching above 2241 level, but low volume. Nothing changed from Daily TD sequential sell countdown angel. Negative sentiment from regional markets this morning could impact our market. Today’s trading range is between 2125-2181-2219 (supports) and 2275-2294-2351 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• UNSP: TD sequential sell countdown 13th day and corrective wave C have been completed, after deep correction. Technical rebound will continue TRADING BUY \r\n\r\n• PTBA: Candlestick signed bullish engulfing pattern yesterday, good momentum. TRADING BUY

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