selsa 4/12\r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Perusahaan Gas Negara: Problem at transmission pipeline\r\n\r\n• Charoen Pokphand (HOLD): plans to build poultry feed plant in Sumatra \r\n\r\n• Unilever (LT BUY): Acquisition of Ultrajaya juice brands approved\r\n\r\n• Fajar Surya (HOLD): To conduct rights issue\r\n\r\n• Bank Mandiri: To acquire Bank Sinar Harapan Bali \r\n\r\n• New IPO: Bank Ekonomi Raharja\r\n\r\n• Cement: Lower cement consumption growth in 2008\r\n\r\n• Inflation easing\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Based on TD sequential buy set up and long impulse wave JCI positive direction is still intact . Technical rebound is expected on some of banking stocks. Trading range is between 2659-2688-2707 (supports) and 2736-2746-2775 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• BKSL: Crossover of stochastic indicator, and good view of trendline approach, we maintain target at Rp750. BUY.\r\n\r\n• TLKM: Moving average (MACD 20 days) is still in positive zone, in line with candle bullish engulfing pattern. Our target of Rp10750. BUY
rabu 5/12\r\n\r\nOur Comment\r\n\r\nProperty sector rallied yesterday as investors speculate that Central Bank is to cut interest rate further by 25bps from current 8.25%. The sector also helped by positive sentiment from lower than expected November inflation figures. However, we still maintains our view on BI rate stable at 8.25% untill year end. \r\n\r\nDuring a public expose yesterday management of Perusahaan Gas Negara stated that operation on its Grissik-Singapore transmission pipeline, operated by 60% subsidiary Transgasindo, is still normal. The repair on the buckle problem will commence once the study is completed. Initial estimate for repair cost is US$75m which will be shared proportionally with other shareholders.\r\n\r\nRicardo Silaen\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• CP Prima: Analyst meeting\r\n\r\n• P Gas: Problem at transmission pipeline (update)\r\n\r\n• Timah: To conduct stock split in Q108\r\n\r\n• Bank Danamon: Bond issue plan\r\n\r\n• New IPO: Yanaprima Hastapersada\r\n\r\n• Agis: 6M07 result\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Technical rebound on gold to US$810 caused by a strike in South Africa, and Dow Jones closed by -0,5% last night. Our JCI chart is still intact with TD sequential buy set up 7th direction (positive). Trading range is between 2646-2692-2722 (supports) and 2768-2783-2828 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• CTRS: Moving average (MACD 20 days) and stochastic indicators indicate an upward trend, our target of Rp990. BUY \r\n\r\n• ISAT: Corrective wave 4th has been completed. Our two trendline targets for ISAT are Rp9250, and next at Rp9850. BUY
Our Comment\r\n\r\nIndonesian companies are expanding and raising funds. After Adhi Karya, Bumi Resources and MNC announced their expansion plans last week, today we heard that Aneka Tambang is acquiring a gold mine. It is issuing a US$750m bond to finance the acquisition. This is in line with the company’s objective to raise contribution from gold to 30%-40% of total revenue from 10% at present. We suspect the acquisition will be substantial, around US$1b, and the size will be around a quarter of Aneka Tambang’s size. While waiting for further details, we maintain HOLD recommendation. Another company in expansion mode is Sorini Agro Asia Corporation. It is targeting Rp1-1.5t capex for land acquisition and a sorbitol plant. In the long term (2012-2013), the company is planning to produce bio fuel. \r\n\r\nThe US rallied this morning. Anticipation of the Fed rate cut and benign economic readings spurred the rally. Regional markets were up strongly.\r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Kimia Farma: Analyst meeting\r\n\r\n• Aneka Tambang (HOLD): Plans a US$750m bond issue\r\n\r\n• P Gas: SOE ministry may impose sanction to management\r\n\r\n• Sorini: Target capex Rp1.5t for acquisition land and expansion\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Dow Jones closed +1,5% last night, and technical rebound on regional markets in this morning average above +1%. JCI TD sequential buy set up 8th signals profit taking pressure (short term). We maintain 3065 as medium target. Today’s trading range is between 2686-2721-2744 (supports) and 2799-2791-2826 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• CTRA: Bullish harami supported big volume yesterday. Based on trendline, our target is Rp850. BUY \r\n\r\n• ISAT: Exponential moving average (EMA) has golden cross for ISAT. Target price Rp9850 is still valid, BUY
Summary\r\n\r\nFlyer\r\n\r\n§ Indonesia Banking Eye – Sentiment lifter\r\n\r\nPress news\r\n\r\n§ The government reduced interest rate yesterday by 25bp from 8.25% to 8.00% on the prospect of benign inflation ahead\r\n\r\n§ Uncertainty over Apexindo’s divestment has put pressure on the company’s share price\r\n\r\n§ As reported in Investor Daily, Temasek has proposed a holding company for Bank Danamon instead of the merge option in response to BI regulation regarding single presence policy (SPP)\r\n\r\n§ Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings and Khazanah Nasional will soon make a decision on their respective stakes in PT Bank Niaga (67%-owned by BCHB via CIMB Group) and PT Bank Lippo (88%-owned by Khazanah),\r\n\r\n§ Telekom Malaysia''s Indonesian unit, PT Excelcomindo Pratama (XL), will spend some US$650m (RM2.17bn) next year to boost the capacity and quality of its mobile phone network\r\n\r\n§ The government plans to sell better quality gasoline to partially replace the sales of heavy subsidised premium brand gasoline in 1Q next year
Our Comment\r\n\r\nWe visited Perdana Gapura Prima, a recently listed company engaging in property business with initial focus in landed residential development outside Jakarta. Recently it expands into high-rise building a development in Jakarta targeting to mid-upper segment, with main project called The Bellezza. The share price is trading at 6% premium over NAV. \r\n\r\nBank Danamon is reported to cancel merger with BII as Temasek Holdings Sinbgapore, owner of both banks, prefer to set up a holding company instead.\r\n\r\nBank Indonesia cut BI rate by 25 bp to 8/0% yesterday, the move came as a surprise to our regional economist and to market consensus. Reasons cited are (1) a decline in inflation to 6.7% y-y in November from 6.9% in October and 7% in September, (2) a decline in crude oil prices since these peaked at record levels in late November and (3) an appreciation in the rupiah/US$ exchange rate since end November. Our economist believes that the step taken by the central bank needs considerable assurance these trends would continue, hence, would have to wait for a few more data points.\r\n\r\nKatarina Setiawan\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nHighlights\r\n\r\n• Perdana Gapuraprima: Company visit\r\n\r\n• Arpeni (UNDER REVIEW): To raise fund next year\r\n\r\n• Bank Danamon: To cancel merger with BII\r\n\r\n• New IPO: Destinasi Tirta Nusantara\r\n\r\n• BI rate: Down 25 bp\r\n\r\nFrom our chartist desk\r\n\r\n• JCI: Dow Jones closed +1,3% last night, still positive, referring to head and shoulder pattern on the bottom. We expect positive impact to JCI. We recommend to take profit (short term). Nearest target is 2885, and we maintain 3065 as medium target. Trading range is between 2745-2769-2782 (supports) and 2805-2815-2839 (resistances) \r\n\r\n• CTRS: Following the principle that impulse wave 3 is higher impulse wave 1. Based on wave and trendline, our target is Rp1150. BUY \r\n\r\n• ISAT: Potential upside exists, signaled by moving average (MACD) and crossing exponential moving average (EMA). Maintain target at Rp9850. BUY.