Market Crash di Akhir September

Seorang investor (hedge fund) memasang PUT Option secara besar-besaran 1milyar US$ untuk saham-saham Eropa dalam mengantisipasi crash dibulan September. Ini beritanya: http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2448565379 http://911research.wtc7.net/sept11/stockputs.html Kejadian seperti ini pernah terjadi beberapa minggu sebelum 9-11. Put optionnya terutama di American Airlines dan United Airlines: http://www.thestreet.com/_email/newsanalysis/optionsfutures/10377063.html Menarik yah.
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Imam_Semar … setuju , makanya saya yg penakut ngga ambil posisi dahulu … paling ngga sampai jelas policy ECB & The Fed di FOMC …
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Weleh…bung Imam ini trhead satunya di lock …malah ini lebih ngeri lagi ada kata "crash"……., Prediksi masih tetap semula that will happen soon.
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Beda amrik dengan Indonesia………….. Kalo amrik pusingkan kredit macetnya, Indonesia NPL perbankan malahan turun drastis……………… Amrik pusingkan suku bunganya yang tinggi, Indonesia malahan ga ada masalah dengan suku bunganya……… Malahan permintaan kredit untuk tahun 2007 bulan Agustus meningkat pesat……………… Beda negara , beda masalahnya……………… Nothing to worry if you buy fundamental………….
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A stark commentary by BBC radio business presenter Greg Wood suggests the real impacts of the subprime mortgage market will hit the stock market in September. And it won’t be pretty.\r\n\r\nThe claim centers on the profit reports from investment banks, starting with Goldman Sachs and the rest following close behind. According to Standard & Poor, the expectation is 50% wiped from their profits due to bad debt markets.\r\n\r\nThe main reason is that parcelled debt, a big commodity in hedge funds especially, have bombed in value, and many are now effectively worthless. The impact on investment banking is expected to be significant.\r\n\r\nThe main warning, though, isn’t that shares in investment banking companies could take a big hit.\r\n\r\nIt’s that historically, big jitters on the stock market are followed by a stock market crash. \r\n\r\nAugust saw the jitters. Now it’s claimed we’re to see the crash.\r\n\r\nOver the past three months, major investment banks such as Morgan Stanley - who issued a crash warning in June - as well as Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and others, have been counting the actual value of the debt they hold.\r\n\r\nSo far the stock markets have been jittery because the extent of the problem with debt markets remained opaque. \r\n\r\nWhen the profit reports come out across September, some degree of transparency on exactly how bad the problem is should be revealed. And investors are unlikely to be forgiving.\r\n\r\nThis is especially as the toll in mortgage companies, small banks, and hedge funds, continues to increase daily.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile, general market expectations of cuts in interest rates which would help save the credit market are likely to be dashed by food price inflation.\r\n\r\nHere at FM we’ve long criticised the summer bull market. It’s time for the bears to come out of hibernation and bring a little more common sense to share prices, away from wild debt speculation.\r\n\r\nNow is the time for hard realities. We need that, because we need to bring back some degree of balance to the economic cycle.
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Counting the cost of the home loan crisis \r\nBy Greg Wood \r\nBusiness presenter, BBC Radio 4 Today programme \r\n \r\nThe markets could face many more anxious days yet \r\n\r\nLike a stone dropped into a very large pond, the crisis in the US home loans market is sending ripples throughout the world''s financial system. \r\n\r\nIt has already caused a few upsets, an Australian hedge fund collapsing here, a small German state bank having to be rescued there. But September is the month when the true cost of the credit crunch will be felt by some of the richest companies on the planet. \r\n\r\nIn the glass towers of Wall Street this week, the bankers at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been totting up the figures for the past three months. \r\n\r\nIt has been a good year, with record profits and bonuses. But that is going to stop. \r\n\r\nThe credit rating agency Standard & Poor''s estimates that investment banking revenues could fall by nearly 50% in the second half of this year because of exposure to non-performing mortgages and loans. \r\n\r\nIn the case of Goldman Sachs alone, that would be a drop of $1.75bn (£852.5m). \r\n\r\nDamaging rumours \r\n\r\nGoldman Sachs will report its next set of profits in mid-September and the rest of Wall Street''s finest will follow suit. It promises to be a painful experience, and not just for US banks. \r\n\r\nStandard & Poor''s harsh warning about falling revenue and profits also covers Europe''s leading investment banks, including Barclays. \r\n\r\nBarclays has had an odd week, and one which illustrates how easily rumour can take hold when investors are scared. \r\n\r\nBarclays share price fell because of a story that the bank had exposure to very significant losses incurred by that small German bank mentioned earlier. \r\n\r\nWell, it turned out that any exposure is in fact pretty small. But that didn''t stop the rumour doing the damage. \r\n\r\nComplex debt \r\n \r\nProblems in the US housing sector have rippled around the world \r\n\r\nAnd it is not as though these mighty banks were involved in the actual business of providing mortgages to poor Americans with no jobs and no money. \r\n\r\nWhen US interest rates rose and those people started defaulting on their loans, it was a number of relatively obscure sub-prime lenders in states such as California that went bust. \r\n\r\nBut those lenders were funded by the big banks. And the sub-prime loans were parcelled out to the markets as investments - complex debt vehicles with odd names like "Collateralised Debt Obligations" and "SIV Lites", which are basically bundles of American mortgages that you can buy like a share or a bond. \r\n\r\nNobody wants to buy them now. In the last few weeks these investments have bombed in value - and in some cases they cannot be bought or sold at all. \r\n\r\nAutumn crash? \r\n\r\nThere is no doubt there are losses out there running into billions of pounds. \r\n\r\nJust how much and who''s affected will begin to emerge over the next month, and every now and then a hedge fund will collapse. \r\n\r\nStudents of stock market history are feeling nervous. A summer of tremors has in the past been followed by an autumn crash. \r\n\r\nDon''t go on holiday in September.
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Just beware, and trading safely.
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ini nih yang market demen…..segala bukti2 yang mendukung market akan crash… OK….semua emiten, siap2-lah untuk buyback saham kalian karena traders dan investor akan jual murah your stock… Jadi pengen liat TLKM.JK harganya 2000 perak dan TINS.JK harganya 1000 perak smile Kalo harga TINS 1000 perak, gw sikat 1000 lot smile Harga 1000 perak, dividen 1500 perak….wow…..smile seperti kata non lita, duit jangan ditolak smile
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Another entity bought 245,000 September puts on the 2,800 strike on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 on 8/16; and they did so when the index was at/around 4,100 at the time… …somebody else bought 10,250 puts on the Nikkei 225 Index at the 11,500 strike; while the Nikkei is currently trading around 16,000. … their expiration on 9/14. Monday CNBC reported that an investor or investors had bought more than $500 million in out of the money put options on the S&P betting for a further decline of 5% to 10% before September expiration
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