china stock market bubble..kapan crash?

bubble has bursted? :-? btw … saya masih punya pendapat bahwa lama lama valuasi saham2 di shanghai harus sejajar dengan saham2 di hk … artinya petrochina di shanghai masih punya kesempatan turun 40% lagi :evil
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smile :siul: short petro china :siul: short ACH :siul:
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China A-shrs close sharply lower on disappointment over policy inaction SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - China A-shares closed sharply lower on disappointment that the government did not announce policy measures over the weekend to boost the stock markets, dealers said. Steelmakers and other large caps led the declines. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 107.43 points or 3 pct at 3,472.71. Turnover fell to 66.83 bln yuan from 90.29 in the previous session. The index rose 4.94 pct on Friday amid rumors that the government will announce a cut in the stamp duty on stock transactions and new rules curbing excessive corporate fund-raising. "Today''s fall is mainly because of no concrete government policies being announced following market rumors on Friday," said Cao Yan, an analyst Soochow Securities. The market saw volatile trading today with the index falling by as much as 3.76 pct to 3,445.56 in the early afternoon. It later moved back to the 3,500 point-level after a rebound in Sinopec. Investors largely ignored news that the securities regulator told fund managers to take a longer-term view and to be conscious of their "social responsibility" to maintain stability in the markets. Premier Wen Jiabao''s remarks on government efforts to promote the stable and healthy development of the stock market also failed to provide a boost because of the lack of specifics. "Some oversold stocks recovered as bargain-hunting emerged, but the overall market remained weak as investor confidence needs to be rebuilt," said Wang Sai, an analyst at Wanguo Consulting. China''s stock market has lost more than 30 pct since mid-January largely due to US credit turmoil and the massive number of shares coming onto the market. Baoshan Iron & Steel (SHA 600019) lost 7.87 pct to 12.41 yuan, and Wuhan Iron & Steel (SHA 600005) shed 7.32 pct to 14.19 yuan. Aluminum Corp of China (SHA 601600; HK 2600) declined 6.65 pct to 20.36 yuan, and Jiangxi Copper (SHA 600362; HK 035smile lost 6.5 pct to 31.09. PetroChina, the biggest index component, dropped 3.64 pct to 17.22. China Oilfield Services Ltd (COSL) (SHA 601808; HK 2883) slipped 0.39 yuan to 21.82, pulled down by overall market weakness, even though it announced that 2007 net profit rose to 2.24 bln yuan from 1.13 bln a year earlier. However, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) (SHA 600028; HK 0386; NYSE SNP) rose 1.34 pct to 12.13, off a low of 11.45. The Shanghai A-share Index was down 112.88 points or 3.01 pct at 3,643.24 and the Shenzhen A-share Index was down 43.85 points or 3.66 pct at 1,153.90. The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was down 414.57 points at 13,686.48 and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index was down 335.94 points at 10,588.86. (1 usd = 7.0 yuan)
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masih overvalued banget yah .. smile jiangxi copper mesti turun 60% untuk menyamai harga di hk .. smile
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masih overvalued banget yah .. smile jiangxi copper mesti turun 60% untuk menyamai harga di hk .. smile Wah bener2 ada obral yach….smile
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China A-shares close sharply lower on monetary tightening worries SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - China A-shares closed sharply lower after comments by the central bank gave rise to fresh worries over monetary policy tightening, dealers said. The People''s Bank of China said yesterday that it will continue to tighten monetary policy as credit and liquidity are still growing too quickly and fixed-asset investment is rebounding. Shares fell across the board with losses in property developers and some banks accelerating late in the session on fears that their earnings will take a hit from inflation, analysts said. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 143.55 points or 4.13 pct at 3,329.16. Turnover rose to 73.09 bln yuan from 66.83 in the previous session. The Shanghai A-share Index was down 150.46 points or 4.13 pct at 3,492.78 and the Shenzhen A-share Index was down 85.30 points or 7.39 pct at 1,068.60. The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was down 510.68 points at 13,175.80 and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index was down 544.73 points at 10,044.13. (1 usd = 7.0 yuan)
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The Hong Kong alternative ''H shares'' offer foreigners an affordable way into China''s slumping stock market by SHIRLEY WON April 3, 2008 China''s stock market has been imploding since fall, and while it''s difficult to peg the bottom, observers say there are opportunities in the cheaper Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong. The Shanghai stock exchange composite index, which closed yesterday at 3,347.88 points, is off 45 per cent from its record peak of 6,092.06 in October. Many of the companies that offer A shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which is only open to Chinese citizens and a few institutions, offer their so-called H shares on the more accessible Hong Kong Stock Exchange. "It was a bubble, and now the bubble is bursting," Yan Wang, managing director at Montreal-based BCA Research, said in an interview. "Probably, 70 to 80 per cent of the decline is over." The Chinese market hasn''t bottomed because government economic policy is in a "tightening mode" with interest rates expected to continue rising, Mr. Wang said. "Monetary tightening is not good for stock markets… "I am more comfortable with the H shares, and last week, we recommended that clients slowly accumulate those stocks listed in Hong Kong or in the United States," said Mr. Wang. He said he likes Chinese oil and utility stocks, as they trade at substantial discounts to their global sector peers because these companies have not been allowed to raise prices despite rising costs of coal and crude oil, he added. "Going forward, this is situation is increasingly unsustainable." China''s stock market was booming last year partly because Chinese citizens cannot invest outside of their country. The recent market pullback stems from investor concern over rising inflation, and how much Chinese exports could be affected by a U.S. economic slowdown, observers say. The Chinese government also tried to cool down the frothy market by increasing the amount of public shares by encouraging public offerings and allowing the floating of previously non-tradable shares. Eric Yan, a portfolio manager with Mavrix Fund Management Inc., said there are signs that China wants to stabilize the market before the Beijing Olympics this summer. Chinese authorities have begun to approve the application for domestic mutual funds that will send more money into the stock market, said Mr. Yan, who runs the Mavrix Asia Pacific Fund. "It is not in the best interest of the government to keep it going down further." Mr. Yan, who expects the Chinese market to rally before the Games, doesn''t see much downside for the H shares trading at 11-to-12 times next years'' profit, and at a 30-to-50-per-cent discount to the Chinese A shares. There is also "upside potential" for the H shares as China plans to allow its domestic investors to buy these Hong Kong-listed stocks, said Mr. Yan, who recently bought H shares of Yanzhou Coal Mining Ltd. for his portfolio. "Probably this year, you will see something on that front … When that happens, the valuations of the two markets should converge." Benjamin Tam, a Hong Kong-based manager with Investors Group Inc., is unsure whether the Chinese market has hit bottom yet, but is "starting to see good value" in the H shares that once traded at 25 times next year''s profit. The Chinese market should benefit from renewed domestic interest in its stock market because "the economy is still in a negative real interest environment" with savings deposit rates at around 3 per cent and inflation at 8 per cent, said Mr. Tam, who co-manages the Investors Greater China Fund. Lambros Piscopos, head of global equities at Montreal-based Natcan Investment Management Inc., agreed that the H shares listed in Hong Kong are now worth a "fresh look given the sharp correction that we have seen. "The long-term story remains intact," Mr. Piscopos said, referring to the double-digit growth rate of its economy in recent years. "The economy will continue to grow in excess of what we see on a global basis."
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masih overvalued banget yah .. smile jiangxi copper mesti turun 60% untuk menyamai harga di hk .. smile ngomong2 soal market HK, dibandingkan shanghai koq kenapa harga index hang seng lebih tinggi ya 23000- 24000 saat ini,,,, so…… hang seng masih lebih overvalued donk ya. more than china shanghai :?: :?: :klelep:
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masih overvalued banget yah .. smile jiangxi copper mesti turun 60% untuk menyamai harga di hk .. smile ngomong2 soal market HK, dibandingkan shanghai koq kenapa harga index hang seng lebih tinggi ya 23000- 24000 saat ini,,,, so…… hang seng masih lebih overvalued donk ya. more than china shanghai :?: :?: :klelep: waduh .. ente baru belajar saham yah? index lebih tinggi bukan berarti valuasi lebih mahal lah smile) jadi nurut ente harga saham hongkong 5x lebih overvalued dibanding shanghai? :rofl:
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Setelah Beijing Olympic kira2 apa ya yg akan terjadi dgn China??…agak ngeri juga mbayangin nya. Untung gw ga kepincut masuk Reksadana China yg ditawarin Bank2 asing di sini. Coba kl masuk thn lalu mah bisa nyangkut entah sampe kapan nih bursa CHina bisa recover. Pasti lamaaa. Moga2 bubble burst nya ga separah Jepang aja deh, soalnya temen gw ada yg masuk RD China lewat HSBC.
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