------- THE CRASH -------

OKEY….. Let''s rock & roll again……, Nikkei, Taiwan, KL, Kospi ShangHai merah lagi. Belum makan lontong CAP GO MEH, mas !, kalau sudah kenyang nanti minggu depan pasti ijo semua! smile
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kl sampai penutupan BEJ ditutup terus diatas 1,5%. BD BEJ boleh dikasih penghargaan nih….. Karena telah membantu bd kawasan untuk memasuki teritori positip….. HORE……HORE…… :applause: :applause: :applause:
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KARENA SAYA RESIDENT BEAR smile (barangkali yah. Portfolio saya hanya emas/perak stocks + Bear/Short Funds) OKEY….. Let''s rock & roll again……, Nikkei, Taiwan, KL, Kospi ShangHai merah lagi. :getar: ngerock ke atas kekekeke :getar:
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Ajo berdoa bersama ,semoga mas IMAM salah lagi !!
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Greenspan Says U.S. Recession Possible, Not Probable (Update4) By Jason Clenfield and Kiyori Ueno March 1 (Bloomberg) – Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a recession in the U.S. is possible, though not probable this year as excess inventory is being reduced quickly, according to people attending a CLSA Japan Forum in Tokyo today. Greenspan spoke in a satellite video link and his remarks came from notes taken by Bernard Key, a former economics professor at Tama University in Tokyo, who attended the event. They were confirmed by four people who declined to be identified. CLSA wouldn''t comment on Greenspan''s presentation. ``By the end of the year, there is the possibility, but not the probability of the U.S. moving into recession,'''' Greenspan said, according to Key''s notes. There are specific housing and general inventory excesses that are being addressed quickly, but need to be carefully monitored, he said. Today''s address came three days after Greenspan said a U.S. recession was possible this year in part because slowing growth in profit margins suggests the expansion might be winding down, according to the Associated Press. He acknowledged that most economists aren''t predicting a recession. Greenspan''s successor Ben S. Bernanke, told Congress yesterday that the Fed still expects the economy to pick up later this year. Greenspan''s comments earlier this week were ``probably misinterpreted, that''s why we see a clarification today,'''' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist for Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``To hint at the possibility of a recession won''t make Bernanke''s life any easier.'''' Profit Margins Current yield premiums are not sustainable, profit margins are peaking and the U.S. growth cycle is in a mature phase, Greenspan said today. The former Fed chairman said previous experience suggests a flattening of profit margins should produce a recession. The globalization of the economy may mean that pattern may not be repeated this time, according to a fund manager who attended the presentation. Greenspan''s remarks earlier this week emerged at a time of weakness in some areas of the U.S. economy, including the housing and auto industries, in an expansion that started in 2001. On Feb. 27, U.S. stocks had their biggest tumble since 2002 after a plunge in Chinese shares sparked a global sell off. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which tracks yuan- denominated A shares listed on China''s two exchanges, declined 62.73, or 2.5 percent, to 2481.84 as of 1:20 p.m. local time. The measure added 3.5 percent yesterday, after plunging 9.2 percent two days ago. It has climbed 24 percent this year. Accomodating Shocks Greenspan today said the relative mildness of this week''s equity market declines is evidence that financial systems have become better at accommodating shocks, according to one fund manager who attended the talk. The Dow Joes Industrial Average yesterday climbed 0.4 percent after a drop of 3.3 percent the previous day. Asked about investment opportunities, Greenspan said that at some stage there will be a recovery to a more ``normal'''' risk spread, according to a trader at today''s event. The trader said he''d heard Greenspan speak three times in the past 12 months and this was Greenspan''s most cautious. The same trader said Greenspan used the words ``mature phase'''' three times today to describe the U.S. economy and that the repetition of the phrasing was conspicuous. Disinflation Trend Greenspan said the global economy is in a long-term trend of disinflation and low interest rates, mainly because of the emergence of so-called centrally planned economies, such as Eastern Europe and China, according to Key''s notes. Because the global economy now includes countries and regions that have highly skilled but less expensive labor, the cost of goods has declined. That''s allowed real and nominal interest rates to decline, he said. Greenspan said in two or three years, this disinflation process will probably come to an end and the world economy will return to a more normal era of price-pressure increases. The asset category most affected by that will be low-quality debt, the former Fed chairman said. Yesterday, Bernanke said in congressional testimony that ``there''s a reasonable possibility that we''ll see some strengthening of the economy sometime during the middle of the year.'''' The central bank''s outlook was unshaken by a U.S. government report that showed the fourth-quarter expansion was slower than previously estimated, Bernanke added. Bernanke and his colleagues have been mostly upbeat about economic prospects this year, while noting risks from industries such as housing. `Gangbusters'' The Fed has said over the past month that the housing market may be bottoming. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said repeatedly in January that the job market was going ``gangbusters.'''' Most forecasters consider that a recession is possible, though chances are ``pretty low,'''' Wachovia Corp. chief economist John Silvia, who helps run a quarterly survey of business economists, said in an interview on Feb. 27. Since retiring in January 2006, Greenspan, 80, has been working on a book, ``The Age of Turbulence,'''' and speaking to companies and business groups. The New York Times reported last March that Penguin Press, part of Pearson Plc, paid Greenspan at least $8.5 million for the rights to the book, which is scheduled for a Sept. 17 release.
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Thanks u bro Nokiasam1 u/berita AG-nya DJIA mungkin menguji level 12.000 yg bertahan hampir 5 bulan
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Hitungan paling sederhana sih menurut saya adalah fundamental, Tapi apakah arti kata FUNDAMENTAL ? Apakah perush kapitalisasi besar ? sahamnya dijaga ? cash flow bagus ? neraca keuangan bagus ? smile menurut saya adalah : PER bagus deviden sering dan hampir 50% dari EPS kapitalisasi besar likuid ada lagi yg mau menambahkan ? tidak selamanya bagi deviden itu bagus…membagi deviden artinya cash flow perusahaan jadi gak gitu sehat, lebih bagusnya buat expansi jadi prospek ke depan perusahaan makin bagus
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Stocks Stage Comeback on Upbeat Data Thursday March 1, 2:39 pm ET By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer Stocks Stage Comeback on Upbeat Manufacturing Report, Indexes Turn Positive NEW YORK (AP) – A still skittish Wall Street staged a comeback Thursday, with the Dow Jones industrials erasing almost all of 209-point drop after an upbeat assessment of manufacturing activity eased some worries about a flagging U.S. economy. ADVERTISEMENT The blue chip index nudged into positive territory in midafternoon, then fluctuated in a narrow range. Several hours earlier, the broader Standard & Poor''s 500 index made its first foray into the plus column. Investors, relieved that manufacturing is still expanding, bought some of the stocks pummeled in Tuesday''s drop that sliced 416 points off the Dow. Fears about the U.S. economy contributed to that plunge, and a halfhearted rebound on Wednesday followed soothing words from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The Institute for Supply Management''s index of February manufacturing activity came in at 52.3, stronger than the 50.0 reading analysts expected and up from 49.3 in January. The index is an important measure of a part of the economy that has given investors headaches in recent months. Manufacturing has suffered from the listless housing market and hard-up auto industry, and at times has given off signals that a recession might be in the offing. A reading at 50 and above indicates expansion, while anything below 50 signals contraction. The ISM data helped the market regain lost ground, but anxiety still plagued the Street, with the indexes bouncing around choppily as many investors bailed out of equities and fled to safe havens like Treasurys, fearing that stocks could see a bigger correction. "The aftermath of Tuesday''s major selloff will linger for the next couple of days. I don''t think we''re totally out of the woods yet," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at New York-based brokerage house Avalon Partners Inc. In midafternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 17.06, or 0.14 percent, at 12,251.57, after dropping as low as 12,056.54 in the first hour of trading. Broader stock indicators also dipped after briefly turning positive. The Standard & Poor''s 500 index was down 1.20, or 0.09 percent, at 1,405.62, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq composite index was off 5.05, or 0.21 percent, at 2,411.10. Stocks plunged early on Tuesday amid growing worries that the U.S. and Chinese economies are slowing, then recovered slightly on Wednesday as Bernanke predicted the U.S. economy would continue to grow moderately. The market appears to be in a pattern set during past big downturns, dropping sharply one day, regaining some ground the next and then resuming its slide or waffling as investors were unable to recoup their lost confidence in stocks. "The early morning hours raised the concern that we haven''t hit our bottom yet," said Jack Caffrey, equities strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. "It''s probably going to be a grinding, sideways movement over the next few days as people realize there are risks out there." Bond prices rose as stocks fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.55 percent from 4.57 percent late Wednesday. Gold prices fell, while the dollar was higher against most major currencies, except for the Japanese yen. The dollar has been losing ground to the yen, as traders unwind so-called yen carry trades – borrowing the low-yielding yen to invest in the dollar, a technique that many market watchers say helped accelerate the U.S. market''s recent decline. The dollar traded at 117.62 yen by early afternoon on Thursday, down from Wednesday''s levels but higher from an earlier low of 116.94. U.S. investors began the day rattled by another series of declines in Asian and European markets. "It''s kind of the tail wagging the dog today. There''s no stability in Asian markets, and no stability in European markets. We''re trading the market as the rest of the globe is," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. Overseas, Japan''s Nikkei stock fell 0.86 percent, and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.9 percent. Britain''s FTSE 100 fell 0.90 percent, Germany''s DAX index tumbled 1.12 percent, and France''s CAC-40 dropped 1.12 percent. But the U.S. market began recovering by midmorning, as investors examined the U.S. economic reports released Thursday. "As far as data goes, there''s more good news than bad news," Hogan said. The Commerce Department said personal incomes rose in January at the fastest pace in a year, fueled in part by executive bonuses and pay hikes for federal workers. Personal incomes rose by 1 percent in January, the largest advance since January 2006, while consumer spending was up by 0.5 percent. A confident consumer willing to spend is a good sign for Wall Street that the economy won''t slow down too suddenly. The report also showed inflation excluding sometimes volatile energy and food prices rose 0.3 percent in January, the largest one-month gain since August. But the gauge that leaves in energy and food rose by only 0.2 percent, has moderated to 2 percent year-over-year – at the top of the Fed''s 1 percent to 2 percent target. "It''s slipped back into their comfort zone. It takes the Fed tightening question right off the table," Hogan said. Not all the economic snapshots Thursday were upbeat: Construction activity fell by 0.8 percent in January, double the decline that analysts had been expecting, and the Labor Department reported that the number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 last week to 338,000. Economists had been expecting a drop in claims. But taken together, the data over the past week still paints a picture of moderating economic growth and cooling inflation – technically, an ideal long-term situation for stocks. "The fear of recession is overblown. I don''t think we''re headed for recession in 2007," Cardillo said. Until the stock market stabilizes, though, every piece of data released will be gnawed on and digested by jumpy investors, meaning a single snippet of bad news could trigger another huge selloff. Declining issues narrowly outnumbered advancers on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a heavy 1.55 billion shares. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was down 0.56, or 0.07 percent, at 792.74.
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Alan Greenspan (80 Tahun) revised his comment which triggered Global Market Turbulence, that " Recession is still "POSSIBLE" not "PROBABLE" this year". Hebat kakek umur 80 Tahun masih bisa menggoyang DUNIA! :-O
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Alan Greenspan : " I didn''t mean it " ( CNBC) … walah kakek mulai pikun ya ?
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