kl sampai penutupan BEJ ditutup terus diatas 1,5%. BD BEJ boleh dikasih penghargaan nih…..
Karena telah membantu bd kawasan untuk memasuki teritori positip…..
HORE……HORE…… :applause: :applause: :applause:
KARENA SAYA RESIDENT BEAR (barangkali yah. Portfolio saya hanya emas/perak stocks + Bear/Short Funds)
OKEY….. Let''s rock & roll again……, Nikkei, Taiwan, KL, Kospi ShangHai merah lagi.
ngerock ke atas kekekeke :getar:
Greenspan Says U.S. Recession Possible, Not Probable
By Jason Clenfield and Kiyori Ueno
March 1 (Bloomberg) – Former Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan said a recession in the U.S. is
possible, though not probable this year as excess
inventory is being reduced quickly, according to
people attending a CLSA Japan Forum in Tokyo today.
Greenspan spoke in a satellite video link and his
remarks came from notes taken by Bernard Key, a former
economics professor at Tama University in Tokyo, who
attended the event. They were confirmed by four people
who declined to be identified. CLSA wouldn''t comment
on Greenspan''s presentation.
``By the end of the year, there is the possibility,
but not the probability of the U.S. moving into
recession,'''' Greenspan said, according to Key''s notes.
There are specific housing and general inventory
excesses that are being addressed quickly, but need to
be carefully monitored, he said.
Today''s address came three days after Greenspan said a
U.S. recession was possible this year in part because
slowing growth in profit margins suggests the
expansion might be winding down, according to the
Associated Press. He acknowledged that most economists
aren''t predicting a recession. Greenspan''s successor
Ben S. Bernanke, told Congress yesterday that the Fed
still expects the economy to pick up later this year.
Greenspan''s comments earlier this week were ``probably
misinterpreted, that''s why we see a clarification
today,'''' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist for
Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``To hint at the
possibility of a recession won''t make Bernanke''s life
Current yield premiums are not sustainable, profit
margins are peaking and the U.S. growth cycle is in a
mature phase, Greenspan said today.
The former Fed chairman said previous experience
suggests a flattening of profit margins should produce
a recession. The globalization of the economy may mean
that pattern may not be repeated this time, according
to a fund manager who attended the presentation.
Greenspan''s remarks earlier this week emerged at a
time of weakness in some areas of the U.S. economy,
including the housing and auto industries, in an
expansion that started in 2001.
On Feb. 27, U.S. stocks had their biggest tumble since
2002 after a plunge in Chinese shares sparked a global
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which tracks
yuan- denominated A shares listed on China''s two
exchanges, declined 62.73, or 2.5 percent, to 2481.84
as of 1:20 p.m. local time. The measure added 3.5
percent yesterday, after plunging 9.2 percent two days
ago. It has climbed 24 percent this year.
Greenspan today said the relative mildness of this
week''s equity market declines is evidence that
financial systems have become better at accommodating
shocks, according to one fund manager who attended the
talk. The Dow Joes Industrial Average yesterday
climbed 0.4 percent after a drop of 3.3 percent the
Asked about investment opportunities, Greenspan said
that at some stage there will be a recovery to a more
``normal'''' risk spread, according to a trader at
The trader said he''d heard Greenspan speak three times
in the past 12 months and this was Greenspan''s most
cautious. The same trader said Greenspan used the
words ``mature phase'''' three times today to describe
the U.S. economy and that the repetition of the
phrasing was conspicuous.
Greenspan said the global economy is in a long-term
trend of disinflation and low interest rates, mainly
because of the emergence of so-called centrally
planned economies, such as Eastern Europe and China,
according to Key''s notes.
Because the global economy now includes countries and
regions that have highly skilled but less expensive
labor, the cost of goods has declined. That''s allowed
real and nominal interest rates to decline, he said.
Greenspan said in two or three years, this
disinflation process will probably come to an end and
the world economy will return to a more normal era of
price-pressure increases. The asset category most
affected by that will be low-quality debt, the former
Fed chairman said.
Yesterday, Bernanke said in congressional testimony
that ``there''s a reasonable possibility that we''ll see
some strengthening of the economy sometime during the
middle of the year.'''' The central bank''s outlook was
unshaken by a U.S. government report that showed the
fourth-quarter expansion was slower than previously
estimated, Bernanke added.
Bernanke and his colleagues have been mostly upbeat
about economic prospects this year, while noting risks
from industries such as housing.
The Fed has said over the past month that the housing
market may be bottoming. San Francisco Fed President
Janet Yellen said repeatedly in January that the job
market was going ``gangbusters.''''
Most forecasters consider that a recession is
possible, though chances are ``pretty low,'''' Wachovia
Corp. chief economist John Silvia, who helps run a
quarterly survey of business economists, said in an
interview on Feb. 27.
Since retiring in January 2006, Greenspan, 80, has
been working on a book, ``The Age of Turbulence,'''' and
speaking to companies and business groups. The New
York Times reported last March that Penguin Press,
part of Pearson Plc, paid Greenspan at least $8.5
million for the rights to the book, which is scheduled
for a Sept. 17 release.
Hitungan paling sederhana sih menurut saya adalah fundamental,
Tapi apakah arti kata FUNDAMENTAL ?
Apakah perush kapitalisasi besar ? sahamnya dijaga ? cash flow bagus ? neraca keuangan bagus ?
menurut saya adalah :
deviden sering dan hampir 50% dari EPS
ada lagi yg mau menambahkan ?
tidak selamanya bagi deviden itu bagus…membagi deviden artinya cash flow perusahaan jadi gak gitu sehat, lebih bagusnya buat expansi jadi prospek ke depan perusahaan makin bagus
Stocks Stage Comeback on Upbeat Data
Thursday March 1, 2:39 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Stocks Stage Comeback on Upbeat Manufacturing Report, Indexes Turn Positive
NEW YORK (AP) – A still skittish Wall Street staged a comeback Thursday, with the Dow Jones industrials erasing almost all of 209-point drop after an upbeat assessment of manufacturing activity eased some worries about a flagging U.S. economy.
The blue chip index nudged into positive territory in midafternoon, then fluctuated in a narrow range. Several hours earlier, the broader Standard & Poor''s 500 index made its first foray into the plus column.
Investors, relieved that manufacturing is still expanding, bought some of the stocks pummeled in Tuesday''s drop that sliced 416 points off the Dow. Fears about the U.S. economy contributed to that plunge, and a halfhearted rebound on Wednesday followed soothing words from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
The Institute for Supply Management''s index of February manufacturing activity came in at 52.3, stronger than the 50.0 reading analysts expected and up from 49.3 in January. The index is an important measure of a part of the economy that has given investors headaches in recent months. Manufacturing has suffered from the listless housing market and hard-up auto industry, and at times has given off signals that a recession might be in the offing. A reading at 50 and above indicates expansion, while anything below 50 signals contraction.
The ISM data helped the market regain lost ground, but anxiety still plagued the Street, with the indexes bouncing around choppily as many investors bailed out of equities and fled to safe havens like Treasurys, fearing that stocks could see a bigger correction.
"The aftermath of Tuesday''s major selloff will linger for the next couple of days. I don''t think we''re totally out of the woods yet," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at New York-based brokerage house Avalon Partners Inc.
In midafternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 17.06, or 0.14 percent, at 12,251.57, after dropping as low as 12,056.54 in the first hour of trading.
Broader stock indicators also dipped after briefly turning positive. The Standard & Poor''s 500 index was down 1.20, or 0.09 percent, at 1,405.62, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq composite index was off 5.05, or 0.21 percent, at 2,411.10.
Stocks plunged early on Tuesday amid growing worries that the U.S. and Chinese economies are slowing, then recovered slightly on Wednesday as Bernanke predicted the U.S. economy would continue to grow moderately.
The market appears to be in a pattern set during past big downturns, dropping sharply one day, regaining some ground the next and then resuming its slide or waffling as investors were unable to recoup their lost confidence in stocks.
"The early morning hours raised the concern that we haven''t hit our bottom yet," said Jack Caffrey, equities strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. "It''s probably going to be a grinding, sideways movement over the next few days as people realize there are risks out there."
Bond prices rose as stocks fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.55 percent from 4.57 percent late Wednesday.
Gold prices fell, while the dollar was higher against most major currencies, except for the Japanese yen. The dollar has been losing ground to the yen, as traders unwind so-called yen carry trades – borrowing the low-yielding yen to invest in the dollar, a technique that many market watchers say helped accelerate the U.S. market''s recent decline. The dollar traded at 117.62 yen by early afternoon on Thursday, down from Wednesday''s levels but higher from an earlier low of 116.94.
U.S. investors began the day rattled by another series of declines in Asian and European markets.
"It''s kind of the tail wagging the dog today. There''s no stability in Asian markets, and no stability in European markets. We''re trading the market as the rest of the globe is," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co.
Overseas, Japan''s Nikkei stock fell 0.86 percent, and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.9 percent. Britain''s FTSE 100 fell 0.90 percent, Germany''s DAX index tumbled 1.12 percent, and France''s CAC-40 dropped 1.12 percent.
But the U.S. market began recovering by midmorning, as investors examined the U.S. economic reports released Thursday.
"As far as data goes, there''s more good news than bad news," Hogan said.
The Commerce Department said personal incomes rose in January at the fastest pace in a year, fueled in part by executive bonuses and pay hikes for federal workers. Personal incomes rose by 1 percent in January, the largest advance since January 2006, while consumer spending was up by 0.5 percent. A confident consumer willing to spend is a good sign for Wall Street that the economy won''t slow down too suddenly.
The report also showed inflation excluding sometimes volatile energy and food prices rose 0.3 percent in January, the largest one-month gain since August. But the gauge that leaves in energy and food rose by only 0.2 percent, has moderated to 2 percent year-over-year – at the top of the Fed''s 1 percent to 2 percent target.
"It''s slipped back into their comfort zone. It takes the Fed tightening question right off the table," Hogan said.
Not all the economic snapshots Thursday were upbeat: Construction activity fell by 0.8 percent in January, double the decline that analysts had been expecting, and the Labor Department reported that the number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 last week to 338,000. Economists had been expecting a drop in claims.
But taken together, the data over the past week still paints a picture of moderating economic growth and cooling inflation – technically, an ideal long-term situation for stocks.
"The fear of recession is overblown. I don''t think we''re headed for recession in 2007," Cardillo said.
Until the stock market stabilizes, though, every piece of data released will be gnawed on and digested by jumpy investors, meaning a single snippet of bad news could trigger another huge selloff.
Declining issues narrowly outnumbered advancers on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a heavy 1.55 billion shares.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was down 0.56, or 0.07 percent, at 792.74.
Alan Greenspan (80 Tahun) revised his comment which triggered Global Market Turbulence, that " Recession is still "POSSIBLE" not "PROBABLE" this year".
Hebat kakek umur 80 Tahun masih bisa menggoyang DUNIA! :-O