Why gold price will plunge to $800 per ounce

Why gold price will plunge to $800 per ounce\r\n\r\n\r\nDavos 2010: George Soros warns gold is now the ‘'ultimate bubble’' \r\n\r\nGold is now "the ultimate bubble", billionaire investor George Soros has declared, sparking fears that prices for the precious metal may soon suffer a tumble\r\n\r\nMr Soros, arguably the most famous hedge fund manager in history, warned that with interest rates low around the world, policymakers were risking generating new bubbles which could cause crashes in the future. In comments delivered on the fringe of the World Economic Forum, Mr Soros said: "When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold." \r\n\r\nAt the World Economic Forum two weeks ago, George Soros dubbed gold “the ultimate asset bubble.” Some commentators insist that the most recent rise in the gold price, beginning in late 2008, has been driven primarily by the single factor that has caused nearly all other assets to rise during this time: the weakening U.S. dollar. Indeed, the dollar’s renewed strength over the last 60 days has coincided with the decline in the gold price from its all-time high of $1,226.50 per ounce in early December.\r\n\r\n\r\nLONDON (Commodity Online): In the last few months, we have been reading predictions and forecasts from bullion analysts who insisted and argued that gold price is booming to touch $2,000, $3,000, $5,000, $10,000 per ounce in the coming years. \r\n\r\nThese forecasts have caught people’s attention who have been pouring money into gold and other precious metals all these months. But after the big surge of gold price to $1,227 per ounce some two months back, the yellow metal has been climbing down the ladder of speculation.\r\n\r\nDespite speculators going on the ‘'boom-in-gold-price predictions’', the yellow metal price has been sinking in the last two months. "If the gold price fall continues like this way, it is certain to touch down to $1,000 per ounce or below this level in the next one month," says bullion analyst Mark Robinson.\r\n\r\nRobinson, who is not a great bull on gold, says even if gold price falls to $900 or $800 per ounce, people should not complain. "For those who have invested in gold some years back, even $900 or $800 per ounce is a great price tag. So, there is no room for complaints even if gold price falls to realistic levels," he said.\r\n\r\nRobinson, a keen bullion watcher focusing on China, says that the Chinese government wants gold price to plunge to $800 per ounce level. "China''s biggest ambition these days is to build up gold reserves. For this, the best thing that China wants is a big fall in gold price so that it can buy more gold from IMF, gold miners and from the physical bullion market," argues Robinson.\r\n\r\nIt is not just Robinson who is a bear in gold price forecast. On Monday, a senior analyst with Citigroup came out with purely bearish prediction on gold. Citigroup bullion analyst Alan Heap said that gold prices could sink to $820 an ounce by 2014. \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nHere is that interesting article that TheStreet.com published on the bearish prediction on gold: \r\n\r\n"NEW YORK (TheStreet) – gold prices could sink to $820 an ounce by 2014, in the absence of inflation or strong demand from China, says a Citigroup analyst \r\n\r\nAlan Heap, an analyst at Citi Investment Research, adds a bearish voice to a crowded debate over where the precious metal is headed. Billionaire investor James Rogers and perma-bear David Tice say gold will hit $2,500. James Turk , Author of GoldMoney, predicts $8,000, while author Mike Maloney is betting on $15,000.\r\n\r\nOver the last decade, gold prices have soared from $250 an ounce to an all-time high of $1,227 an ounce, with many analysts believing that gold is in a continued bull market despite short-term pullbacks. Heap broke with this bull view by saying in a research analysis, "Gold: Paper Problems," that prices will sink to $820 by June of 2014 and head lower long term to $700 an ounce.\r\n\r\nAs global economies print more money and lower interest rates to survive financial crises, gold becomes popular to own. As paper money loses value, investors turn to gold as an alternative safe haven asset.\r\n\r\nAs gold prices hit a record high of $1,227 an ounce, the U.S. dollar started to move towards its all-time low of $71.40. As the dollar loses value, commodities become cheaper to buy in other currencies. Many analysts expect low interest rates, President Obama''s $3.8 trillion budget plan, a raised deficit ceiling and money printing pressure the dollar and buoy gold prices. \r\n\r\nOver the last 10 years, investors have been diversifying into gold more than any other asset class. You no longer have to be a doom and gloom analyst or store gold bars in a bank in order to own the precious metal. Average institutional investors and world central banks have been increasing their gold holdings supporting high prices. Helping investors buy gold is the emergence of gold ETFs. There are now three physically backed ETFs available SPDR Gold Shares(GLD Quote), iShares Comex Gold(IAU Quote) and ETFS Gold Trust(SGOL Quote). \r\n\r\nCentral banks have become one of the biggest buyers of gold. Countries increase their gold reserves on a percentage basis, usually irrespective of the spot price. In the past year, countries like China, India and Russia have transitioned from being net sellers of gold to net buyers. Portugal holds 90% of its reserves in gold, while the U.S. has 70%. China currently only holds 1,054 tons of its reserves in gold, which is less than 2%. \r\n\r\nThe biggest threat to rising gold prices is a substantial decrease in long positions in paper markets, Heap writes in his report. "Positions held by money managers and broader non-commercial positions have fallen since November 2009 when the USD strengthened. Non-commercial net long positions are at 5x the average levels seen over the last 17 years." \r\n\r\nThe Euro reached a seven-month low against the U.S. dollar Friday, as sovereign debt fears in Spain, Portugal and Greece continued to devalue the currency. The dollar is playing the role of safe haven asset for investors jolted by global economic recovery fears lead them out of riskier commodities. There is also an expectation that the Federal Reserve might raise its key interest rate target sooner than expected, which would also support the currency. \r\n\r\nThe most popular physically backed ETF SPDR Gold Shares(GLD Quote) has seen a decline in tonnage since the beginning of 2010 from 1,128.74 to 1,104.54. Heap noted that ETF holdings are high, but stable. As long as worries over a global banking crisis subside, holdings should remain flat. \r\n\r\nA big driver for gold prices in 2009 was pent up demand from China. The country has recently increased its gold reserves to 1,054 tons from 600 tons and is expected to continue diversifying. However, recently the Chinese government ordered banks to increase their reserve ratio by 50 basis points and has encouraged them to restrict lending. China is targeting an 8% growth rate for 2010 instead of the 11% analysts had anticipated. \r\n\r\nChina''s emerging middle class has also unleashed significant gold buying in the physical market. According to the Citi report, from September 2008 to September 2009, China retail demand grew 20 tons out of 260 tons globally. There are worries that the country''s $585 billion stimulus program is slowing down, which would curb gold demand from retail investors as well as central banks Gold is typically seen as a hedge against inflation as investors buy the precious metal as an alternative asset. But Heap argues that it''s not actual inflation that correlates to gold prices, but inflationary expectations. According to the figure above in 2009, the U.S. Consumer Price Index dipped into negative territory, which means no inflation at all. However, gold prices kept rising. Heap thinks that inflationary expectations would have to skyrocket to boost gold; just a pick-up in inflation wouldn''t be the big mover in prices many analysts anticipate.".\r\n\r\n\r\nRead more: http://www.bigcapital.wordpress.com/\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n.
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ada sekian alasan yg bilang gold bisa turun kalo anda berada di kubu pesimis… ada sekian alasan juga yg bilang gold bisa naik ke arah yg lebih tinggi lagi kalo anda berada di kubu optimis……… Semuanya adu persepsi, adu bukti, adu argumentasi……… Time will tell which one true……..
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ada sekian alasan yg bilang gold bisa turun kalo anda berada di kubu pesimis… ada sekian alasan juga yg bilang gold bisa naik ke arah yg lebih tinggi lagi kalo anda berada di kubu optimis……… Semuanya adu persepsi, adu bukti, adu argumentasi……… Time will tell which one true…….. Sama halnya dgn saham, yg pesimis bilang bursa akan anjlok habis habisan. Yg optimis bilang index bisa sampai 3500. Yg mana yg benar? Tentu time will tell. Tapi namanya pelaku pasar kan perlu tebak tebak buah manggis.
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Mmm… ini sih bukan soal pesimis atau optimis (in my perspective) Ini lebih kepada prediksi BOOM (bubble) and BURST (crash)… Seberapa lama dan seberapa tinggi (besar) booming emas ini… Kapan ‘'pecah’'nya… tidak ada yg (persis) tahu. :-w http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_price
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“Dalam jangka panjang, siapa yang mengendalikan suplai uang sebuah negara, dialah yang mengendalikan negara tersebut” - Rotschild -\r\n\r\nUntuk mengendalikan suplai uang Amerika, bankir internasional (Rothschild cs) harus mengembalikan medium uang yang mereka kuasai (emas) sebagai uang di Amerika. Uang kertas harus diganti dengan uang emas!\r\n\r\n… Hari ini, tentu saja, kebutuhan bagi mereka untuk kembali ke emas sebagai uang sudah tidak ada, karena yang memonopoli uang kertas (bank note) pun adalah mereka sendiri. Dua-duanya sudah dalam kontrol mereka. Manfaat terbesar kampanye emas beternak emas di internet adalah untuk menjual emas di harga setinggi-tingginya kepada orang-orang yang sanggup membeli.\r\n\r\nSiapa pemilik bisnis pertambangan utama emas dunia? Bank-bank mana yang membiayai (memberikan kredit kerja) kepada perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan utama dunia? Coba research-lah sendiri…\r\n\r\nDan kalaupun secara ajaib dunia kembali lagi ke gold standard (fractional reserved gold standard!), kekuatan yang samalah yang masih akan menjadi bankir dan menciptakan kredit kepada manusia-manusia yang ada.\r\n\r\nSedikit lucu melihat kampanye anti produk Amerika, anti Israel, anti Zionis, dan produk-produk yang lain, begitu gampang bagi sebagian orang untuk menyampaikan ide memboikot KFC, McDonald, Coca-Cola, dll, saya penasaran kapan orang-orang yang sama akan berpikir untuk melancarkan kampanye memboikot emas?\r\n\r\nMembeli emas adalah tindakan perlawanan terhadap bankir internasional?? Hehe…\r\n\r\nHarga emas boleh naik boleh turun, dan itu tidak akan mengubah kenyataan bahwa proses penciptaan uang masih harus datang dari aplikasi kredit kepada perbankan!\r\n\r\nHarga emas meroket?? Ya, itu akan membuat orang-orang yang menyimpan emas untuk bertambah kaya, tetapi demikian juga dengan para Money Masters, mereka juga akan bertambah kaya! Jauh melebihi kita.\r\n\r\nGampang mencari berita bank sentral menjual cadangan emas mereka untuk "menekan" harga… Yang tidak gampang adalah mencari berita siapa yang sedang membeli! Who is the last buyer??
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So….WHO IS THE LAST BUYER ??? terusin dong bung, jgn sepotong-sepotong…
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