Outlook Perekonomian Indonesia

TLKM AJA DEH. LUMAYAN DARI 8.15K KE 10K 10,000? kapan? :$-)
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Interest rates to remain low Slower than expected global economic recovery triggered by widening budget deficits in some European countries is likely to delay plans of raising interest rates. While this could help pave the way for the BI benchmark rate to remain flat this year, we believe short-term focus will be on the US exit strategy in our view. At this stage, we only expect a maximum of 50 bps hike in the BI benchmark rate from 6.50% to 7.00%. Indonesian banks to fare better Financial institutions in some countries, particularly banks, are suggested to focus on the quality and quantity of the capital they hold. China’s strong loan growth last January caused nervousness resulting in the Chinese government ordering some big banks to curb lending to prevent the domestic economy from over-heating. Moreover, the US plans to apply some restrictions to limit banks’ aggressive lending towards hedge funds and private equity firms, and ban banks’ proprietary trading activities. This will mean comparatively better growth for Indonesian banks relative to banks in some other countries. 15% loan growth in 2010 attainable December’s 2.8% m-m loan growth (or IDR40t) suggests that Indonesian banks are on target to leverage their loan portfolio this year, paving the way for robust net interest income, although we expect NIM to contract on lower rates. Increased consumer demand for automotive and housing as well as higher corporate lending to finance capacity expansions and working capital should support our 2010’s 15% expected loan growth, following the 2009’s below average loan growth of 8.7% to IDR1,471t. Improving liquidity on low average third-party funding Given the current low interest environment, we believe that third-party funding is not an issue for most banks, complying with the LPS ceiling rate of 7.0%. This will result in the industry’s average third-party funding this year to be lower than in 2009. Hence, we expect banks like BDMN to benefit from this due to its high reliance on time deposits while the deposit franchise banks like BBCA will experience limited savings on its funding costs. The industry’s average LDR stands at 74.6% with BBCA having the lowest LDR of around 50% and BDMN at the other end of the spectrum at 90%. Maintaining Overweight with more choices The recent weakness in the JCI should be viewed as opportunities for investors to accumulate bank stocks. Our picks are with the big-cap banks rather than medium-small sized banks. We view that BBRI (rapid loan growth) and BBCA (excellent management) would be appropriate defensive plays while BBNI (undemanding valuation), BDMN (beneficiary of consumer play) and BMRI (improving asset quality) would provide more leverage for investors with greater risk appetite TAMBAHAN POTRET BMRI UNTUK 2 TAHUN KE DEPAN (DENGAN ASUMSI BMRI TAK MEMBERLAKUKAN RIGHT ISSUE DI TAHUN 2010 INI) Year to 31 Dec 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Net int. inc.(IDRb) 15,285 18,197 20,843 24,047 Pre-prov. (IDRb) 10,505 12,252 13,695 15,715 Net profit (IDRb) 5,313 6,339 7,686 9,711 EPS (IDR) 253 302 367 463 EPS growth (%) 22.2 19.3 21.2 26.3 P/E (x) 18.2 15.3 12.6 10.0 BVPS (IDR) 1,455 1,669 1,884 2,164 P/BV (x) 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.1 ROAA (%) 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 ROAE (%) 17.8 19.4 20.6 22.9 DPS (IDR) 89 151 183 232 Div. yield (%) 1.9 3.3 4.0 5.0 Year to 31 Dec (IDRb) 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Interest income 27,336 35,280 40,831 48,105 Interest expense 12,052 17,084 19,988 24,058 Net interest income 15,285 18,197 20,843 24,047 y-y growth (%) 19.5 19.1 14.5 15.4 Fees and commissions 3,423 3,906 4,519 5,152 Other operating income 1,231 1,217 1,339 1,472 Total operating income 19,939 23,320 26,700 30,671 Operating expenses 9,434 11,068 13,005 14,956 Pre-provisioning profit 10,505 12,252 13,695 15,715 Loan loss provisions (2,595) (3,651) (3,244) (2,475) Non-operating inc.(exp.) 158 208 228 251 Pre-tax profit 8,069 8,809 10,680 13,491 Corporate tax (2,753) (2,466) (2,990) (3,77smile Minorities (2) (3) (3) (3) Net profit 5,313 6,339 7,686 9,711 y-y growth (%) 22.2 19.3 21.2 26.3 EPS (IDR) 253 302 367 463 As at 31 Dec (IDRb) 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Assets Cash on hand 8,389 8,515 8,643 8,772 Deposits at BI 13,354 15,357 17,661 20,310 Deposits at other banks 7,407 9,258 10,415 11,717 Placements 15,666 36,572 41,144 46,287 Mkt. securities 24,626 29,913 33,652 37,858 Net loans 162,639 187,865 223,536 260,739 Fixed assets 4,604 6,445 7,251 8,157 Other assets 121,753 109,893 110,357 111,808 Total assets 358,439 403,818 452,659 505,649 Liabilities Customer deposits 296,830 327,725 354,786 396,218 Borrowings 9,372 9,840 9,348 8,881 Subordinated loans 2,837 5,837 5,837 5,837 Other liabilities 18,858 25,394 43,149 49,307 Total liabilities 327,897 368,797 413,120 460,243 Minorities 28 28 28 28 Equity 30,514 34,994 39,510 45,378 Total liabilities & equity 358,439 403,818 452,659 505,649 Year to 31 Dec (%) 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F ROAA 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 ROAE 17.8 19.4 20.6 22.9 NIM 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.5 Loan/deposit ratio 60.4 62.6 68.6 71.3 Total funding/deposit ratio 56.5 58.3 64.2 67.2 Cost efficiency ratio 47.3 47.5 48.7 48.8 Gross NPL 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 NPL coverage 127.1 136.5 135.8 135.3 CAR 15.7 16.7 15.8 14.0 Assumptions (%) Asset yield 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.9 Cost of funds 4.2 5.2 5.6 6.2 Spread 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.7 Loan growth 25.9 14.7 18.6 16.3 Deposit growth 16.9 10.6 8.3 11.8 Fee income/total income 17.2 16.8 16.9 16.8 Non-int. inc./total income 23.3 22.0 21.9 21.6 Int. inc./total income 76.7 78.0 78.1 78.4 Equity/assets 8.5 8.7 8.7 9.0 Year to 31 Dec (IDRb) 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Earnings assets Gross loans 174,499 200,162 237,394 276,057 Government bonds 88,259 84,160 80,267 76,568 Marketable securities 24,670 30,838 34,693 39,029 Other earnings assets 44,948 56,057 64,175 73,585 Total earnings assets 332,377 371,217 416,529 465,240 % to earnings assets Gross loans 52.5 53.9 57.0 59.3 Government bonds 26.6 22.7 19.3 16.5 Other earnings assets 20.9 23.4 23.7 24.2 Deposits Demand deposits 69,087 71,850 77,598 83,806 Savings 94,954 113,945 132,176 153,324 Time deposit 125,071 133,826 136,503 150,153 Total deposits 289,112 319,621 346,277 387,283 % to deposits Core deposit 56.7 58.1 60.6 61.2 Time deposit 43.3 41.9 39.4 38.8 Year to 31 Dec (%) 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F % to total loans - bank only Corporate 48.1 46.5 46.0 45.5 Commercial/SME 39.8 40.4 40.3 40.1 Consumer 12.1 13.1 13.7 14.4 usulan Right Issue BMRI sudah digulirkan
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b.i rate tahun ini nggak mungkin turun karena inflasi akan lebih besar dari tahun lalu.
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b.i rate tahun ini nggak mungkin turun karena inflasi akan lebih besar dari tahun lalu. BI RATE AKAN DITURUNKAN 1% - 2% PADA TAHUN 2010. UNTUK INFLASI BISA DIUTAK ATIK. SUDAH ADA SINYAL BAHWA BULAN DEPAN AKAN TERJADI DEFLASI.
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b.i rate tahun ini nggak mungkin turun karena inflasi akan lebih besar dari tahun lalu. BI RATE AKAN DITURUNKAN 1% - 2% PADA TAHUN 2010. UNTUK INFLASI BISA DIUTAK ATIK. SUDAH ADA SINYAL BAHWA BULAN DEPAN AKAN TERJADI DEFLASI. b.i rate sekarang 6.5 %. kalau diturunkan 2 % jadi 4.5 %, siapa yang mau nyimpan duit di bank? kita lihat ya, siapa yang bener. 6.5 % itu udah bunga minimal tahun ini. :peace: :evil
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b.i rate tahun ini nggak mungkin turun karena inflasi akan lebih besar dari tahun lalu. BI RATE AKAN DITURUNKAN 1% - 2% PADA TAHUN 2010. UNTUK INFLASI BISA DIUTAK ATIK. SUDAH ADA SINYAL BAHWA BULAN DEPAN AKAN TERJADI DEFLASI. b.i rate sekarang 6.5 %. kalau diturunkan 2 % jadi 4.5 %, siapa yang mau nyimpan duit di bank? kita lihat ya, siapa yang bener. 6.5 % itu udah bunga minimal tahun ini. :peace: :evil makanya BI & BEI berusaha mensukseskan pasar modal…. mending masuk ke pasar modal aja…. biar lokal ga kalah dari asing
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YES Indeed bro !!! Thanx atas analisa nya yg bermanfaat Tapi kisruh politik bisa dimanfaatkan utk dpt brg murah smile ADA KORELASI POSITIF ANTARA PERGERAKAN DJI DG N225 DG HSI DG IHSG. NAMUN BELUM TENTU ADA KORELASI POSITIF ANTARA KISRUH CENTURY DENGAN IHSG. CET.PAR. DJI-N225-HSI IJO ==> IHSG IKUTAN IJO PULA. FEELING SAYA MINGGU INI ADA INVISIBLE HAND YANG MEMBUAT SEAKAN-AKAN IHSG TAK GOYAH AKIBAT RIBUT-RIBUT PANSUS CENTURY, APALAGI MINGGU INI ADA PENGUMUMAN ANGKA INFLASI PLUS BI RATE YANG CENDERUNG AKAN DITURUNKAN 1% S/D 2% DALAM TAHUN 2010. SESUAI KEBIASAAN DARI TAHUN-TAHUN SEBELUMNYA. IHSG DI BULAN MARET LEBIH TINGGI DI BANDING IHSG DI BULAN JANUARI PILIHAN SAYA KALI INI STRONG BUY BUMI < RP.2150 TARGET BUANG RP.2600 S/D RP.2700 SAMBUT ANGKA REKOR DJI DI BULAN MARET 2010 DAN REKOR BARU IHSG :siul:
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SEMALAM DJI NAIK PESAT 122.06 POINT KE 10,566.20. LUMAYAN TAMBAH LAGI MENJADI 5 SABUK PENGAMAN 9950 - 10050 - 10200 - 10350 - 10500
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Asal jgn ada kelanjutan Rusuh antara mahasiswa dgn pihak kepolisian aja :kesel:
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Asal jgn ada kelanjutan Rusuh antara mahasiswa dgn pihak kepolisian aja :kesel: ASAL TAK ADA MAHASISWA YANG TERTEMBAK MATI, YANG RUSUH-RUSUH HANYA DIANGGAP ANGIN LALU BELAKA DI PASAR MODAL. SAMBUT ANGKA REKOR DJI DI BULAN MARET 2010 DAN REKOR BARU IHSG SEMALAM DJI NAIK PESAT 122.06 POINT KE 10,566.20. LUMAYAN TAMBAH LAGI MENJADI 5 SABUK PENGAMAN 9950 - 10050 - 10200 - 10350 - 10500
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