Indonesia: news/indikator ekonomi, moneter dan perbankan

Untuk data uang yg beredar bisa lihat di websitenya BI. Rp menguat karena technical saja. Kemari memang overshoot sampai di atas 11000/$. Anda bisa lakukan TA, apakah saat ini sudah overbought atau belum. Kalau sudah bisa beli dollar lagi. Lihat 10yr US TB, yieldnya sudah naik di atas 4.6% mendekati 4.7%. Pada saat suku bunga the FED naik di atas 5%, saya tidak tahu bagaimana dengan rupiah. Aksi-Reaksi semacam bisa tergambar di TA.
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Mexico and Indonesia ‘'will overtake British economy’'\r\nTimes Online\r\nBy Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter\r\n\r\nMEXICO and Indonesia will both have bigger economies than the UK by 2050, according to a report out today which outlines the massive potential of the world’s emerging nations.\r\n\r\nThe report examines long-term demographic trends to suggest that countries such as Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey all have young and fast-growing populations compared with the UK and continental Europe, putting them in line for significantly higher long-term growth rates. \r\n\r\nIndia is forecast to have the fastest growth rate in its working-age population of any major economy in the next 50 years, while China is projected to become the world’s biggest economy in that time.\r\n\r\nThe report collectively identifies all these countries, together with Russia, as the “E7” group of emerging economies which it estimates will grow to become 75 per cent larger than the G7 group by 2050.\r\n\r\nThese seven countries hold between them nearly half the world’s population.\r\n\r\nJohn Hawksworth, the head of macroeconomics for PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), who wrote the report, said that India had the potential be the fastest-growing economy in the world, overtaking China.\r\n\r\nIn US dollar terms, he forecast that India would grow by an average of 7.6 per cent a year between now and 2050, with Indonesia on 7.3 per cent and China at 6.3 per cent.\r\n\r\nMexico would see growth of 4.8 per cent a year, far ahead of the US on 2.4 per cent or the UK on just 1.9 per cent, his report predicted.\r\n\r\nOn a purchasing power parity measure, which adjusts GDP by the cost of living in each country, China will be 43 per cent larger than the US by 2050 and India will be the same size, PwC forecasts.\r\n\r\nThe fourth-biggest economy would be Brazil, followed by Japan, and then Indonesia and Mexico. Germany and the UK would drop to joint eighth place, down from third and fifth today.\r\n\r\nHowever, Mr Hawksworth said that Britain should see being overtaken by these economies as an opportunity, and not a threat. He said: “UK companies need to factor these projections into their future planning to ensure they are best placed to take advantage of these opportunities.”\r\n\r\nWith investment in education, Britain could successfully specialise to its advantage while enjoying the benefits of low-cost imports from emerging markets, he said.\r\n\r\nFigures from the Office for National Statistics highlight the size of the opportunity for UK companies.\r\n\r\nThe figures show that the share of Britain’s exports going to the “E7” economies was just 5 per cent in 2004. This compared with about 44 per cent going to the other six G7 countries.\r\n\r\nONES TO WATCH\r\n\r\n• Mexico has 105 million people, falling state ownership of industry and free trade agreements with the US and the EU\r\n\r\n• Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest country by population, with 242 million people. It has five times the land mass of Germany, spread over 18,000 islands\r\n\r\n• Turkey has 70 million people and is projected to have the fastest-growing working-age population of any large economy except India\r\n\r\n\r\nhttp://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,16849-2066804,00.html
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Indonesia brings record bond deal\r\nfinanceasia.com\r\nBy Timothy Cuffe | 6 March 2006 \r\n\r\nIndonesia re-establishes its reputation with international debt investors after blow out success.\r\n\r\nThe Republic of Indonesia completed a $2 billion fund raising on Friday (March 3), its largest international debt sale, via lead managers Barclays Capital, JPMorgan and UBS.\r\n\r\nThe B2/B+/BB- (Fitch) rated deal is split into two tranches: a new $1 billion 11-year fixed rate offering and a $1 billion 29-year re-opening of its existing $600 million 8.5% October 2035 FRN that was completed last year.\r\n\r\nThe fixed rate tranche priced at 99.052% on a coupon of 6.875%, to yield 7%. On a spread basis, that equates to 235.1bp over US Treasuries. The borrower chose to issue at the 11-year maturity because it already has existing 2015 and 2016 deals and wanted to add further liquidity to its curve.\r\n\r\nThe FRN was sold at 113.454%, offering a yield of 7.38% or 263.8bp over equivalent Treasuries. Reopening its own long-dated benchmark brings the total size to $1.6 billion and further enhances its liquidity.\r\n\r\nThe 11-year deal was initially marketed to investors with indicative yield of 7.125%-7.25%, but after picking up significant traction during the roadshows, this was revised down to 7.00%-7.125%.\r\n\r\nPricing at these levels further flattens Indonesia’s credit curve. The fixed rate tranche comes only 4bp wider than its existing 2016 bond, which was yielding 6.96% when the new deal was priced.\r\n\r\nThe order book was split $3.882 billion on the 11-year and $3.715 billion on the 29-year, with 250 and 190 accounts taking part respectively. Geographically, the deal was split relatively evenly among Asian, US and European investors.\r\n\r\nOn the 11-year, 30% went to Asia, 21% to Europe and the remaining 49% to the US. On the 29-year 34% went to Asia, 34% to Europe and 32% to the US.\r\n\r\nIn terms of investor type, on the 11-year asset managers bought 68%, banks 16%, insurance 12% and retail 4%. On the 29-year, 71% went to asset managers, 17% to banks, 10% insurance and 2% retail.\r\n\r\nAlthough pricing came at very attractive levels for the borrower, its overall success will be judged by how it performs in the secondary market. In the past Indonesia’s offshore issues have suffered from overly-aggressive pricing and generally poor timing. This time around bankers say it was imperative the sovereign re-establish credibility with investors.\r\n\r\nIndonesia’s first deal in 2006 was particularly badly timed, pricing before the market could resettle following S&P''s downgrade of Ford and General Motors last spring.\r\n\r\nIndonesia’s follow-up deal - a $1.5 billion Reg-S 144A 10-year and 30-year dual tranche deal – also struggled in secondary trading. Once again its timing was somewhat precarious coming only a few days after the second terrorist bombings in Bali.\r\n\r\nThe deal was initially deemed a success, only to trade off almost immediately thanks to a downturn in the high-yield market. Having priced at 7.625%, the 10-year bond widened 2bp on the break and was trading at a bid/offer of 7.75%-7.70% by the end of its first trading day.\r\n\r\nFrom the outset, Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said he was determined to boost his country''s reputation in the offshore market. He was also steadfast in reiterating that this will be Indonesia''s only deal this year.\r\n\r\nTiming was once again an issue, however. At the end of last week, the Philippines suffered an attempted coup attempt, which pushed Southeast Asian debt spreads out briefly. By the time the deal priced, they had come back in again.\r\n\r\nBoth the leads and the borrower are now hoping the deal''s first day trading is a harbinger of things to come. Both tranches traded up slightly Friday, with the 10-year trading at 99.75% to yield 6.91% and the long-dated tranche trading at 113.625% to yield at 7.36%.\r\n\r\nFurther building momentum was news of a possible upgrade from Moody’s following Standard & Poor’s revision of its outlook to positive from stable.\r\n\r\nS&P highlighted President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s administration’s continued efforts to improve Indonesia’s economy.\r\n\r\n“The outlook revision takes into account the more favorable policy setting that emerged in the wake of significant adjustments in fiscal and monetary policy stance, and the expectation that this will improve deficit and debt ratios further,” said Standard & Poor''s credit analyst Agost Benard.\r\n\r\nMoody’s has also cited the steady improvement in the government’s finance. “The government’s budget deficit in 2005 was under 1% of GDP, continuing a record of only small deficits for the past several years,“ the agency commented. ”This fiscal prudence has led to a steep decline in the ratio of government debt to GDP, while the ratio of government to revenue has shown a similar trend.”\r\n\r\nHowever, one challenge for Indonesia will be its monetary and exchange rate policy. “Last year, volatile capital flows resulting from, in part, a narrowing of interest rate differentials between the dollar and Rupiah led to a substantial decline in international reserves,“ Moody''s added. ”Tightening by Bank of Indonesia has since reserved this trend, but Indonesia is still vulnerable to sudden changes in capital flows.”\r\n\r\n\r\nhttp://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIaNID=30613
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Indonesia postpones creditors meeting Indonesia would postpone this year''s meeting of the Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI) until June, citing the sound condition of the budget thus far and the lack of urgency in taking out more foreign debt, a newspaper reported in Jakarta Saturday. The delay of the creditors'' annual meeting would also give time for better preparation, and a more comprehensive assessment of Indonesia''s economy and its financing needs, it said. “The meeting will likely be held sometime in June, not this March as was previously planned,” Coordinating Minister for the Economy Boediono, who was quoted by the Jakarta Post as saying. “But this is not because there are problems, but rather the financing of our budget is still secure, and should remain so, at least until that time,” he said. The CGI is a country-level group of creditor countries and international agencies that hold annual meetings to agree on development aid in the form of loans and grants for Indonesia following an assessment of the country''s economic progress and financing needs. It was formed in 1992, succeeding the dissolved Inter-Governmental Group on Indonesia (IGGI), with its largest contributors being Japan, the Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Washington-based World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Last year, the CGI pledged 3.4 billion U.S. dollars in loans and grants to help cover the budget deficit and support development programs. The group also pledged 1.2 billion U.S. dollar in support for the relief efforts after the Aceh tsunami disaster. The government is seeking 35.1 trillion rupiah (some 3.7 billion U.S. dollars) in foreign loans to cover this year''s budget deficit, which is expected to come in at 22.4 trillion U.S. dollars, or 0.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Indonesia''s debt stock currently stands at 61.04 billion U.S. dollars. Source: Xinhua http://english.people.com.cn/200603/11/eng20060311_249874.html
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Iran eyes $2b energy contracts with Indonesia, official says Abdul Khalik, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta Iran, one of the world''s top oil producers, is planning to invest up to US$2 billion in several oil and gas projects in Indonesia, a senior official said Friday in Jakarta. A memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the oil and gas sector will be signed during Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad''s two-day state visit to Indonesia next month. The Foreign Ministry''s Director General for Multilateral Relations, Moch. Slamet Hidayat, said Friday that Iran previously stated it was prepared to invest $2 billion in the country''s oil and gas sector. “One of the projects is an oil refinery plant in Tuban, East Java. There are several other projects,” he told The Jakarta Post. Hidayat did not give further details, but Foreign Ministry spokesman Yuri Thamrin said separately that Iran had expressed its willingness to invest $200 million in fixing offshore refinery platforms, and also to invest $400 million in building a gas pipeline linking South Sumatra to Batam Island. He said Ahmedinejad and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono would be expected to witness the signing of the agreements, as well as other agreements on tourism and tax matters. Ahmadinejad is scheduled to meet Yudhoyono on May 10. Indonesia badly needs new investment for its oil sector. Although the country is the only Southeast Asian member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), its oil output has fallen 5 percent annually over the last decade to less than a million barrels per day. A lack of new investment is blamed for its declining oil production because foreign investors have been scared away amid perceptions of rampant corruption, poor infrastructure and legal uncertainty. The country has been a net oil importer since 2005. Yuri said that after bilateral talks with Yudhoyono, Ahmadinejad would give a speech at the University of Indonesia in Depok, West Java, and the State Islamic University Syarif Hidayatullah in Ciputat, South Jakarta. He also would meet with several Muslim leaders before leaving for the Developing Eight (D-smile Summit in Nusa Dua, Bali, on May 12. Indonesia is hosting the D-8 summit, which is to be held on May 13, as it assumes the group''s chairmanship from Iran. Many believe the Iranian nuclear row will overshadow other issues. Besides Yudhoyono and Ahmadinejad, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi of Malaysia and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia have confirmed their attendance at the summit. Indonesia is still awaiting formal confirmation from Nigeria if its state leader will attend, while Egypt will be represented by one of its ministers. The D-8 summit also is expected to come up with a leaders'' declaration on global issues, including peaceful use of nuclear power, agreements on preferential trade and ones on administrative assistance on customs matters. A senior officials and ministerial meeting will precede the summit, while businesspeople from member countries will hold a business forum on May 11 and trade exhibition from May 9-13.
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bagus dah………… bagusnya dana proyek jangan cuma dari segelintir negara…………. engga ada bargain nya nanti…………….. :peace:
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Indonesia economic and corporate news summary BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - A summary of Indonesia economic and corporate news at 1000 GMT: -April CPI up 0.05 pct vs March, up 15.40 pct yr-on-yr -March trade surplus 3.11 bln usd vs 2.84 bln usd in Feb -March imports 4.34 bln usd -March exports 7.45 bln usd -Thousands of workers rally to protest labor law revisions -ETimor capital recovers from riots -Pertamina raises non-subsidized fuel prices by 5.17-12.0 pct -Australia''s EEC offers Indonesia''s Antam LNG supply from Sengkang block -Ciputra Devt Q1 net profit 391.52 bln rupiah vs loss 56.07 bln -Excelcomindo Q1 net profit 354.61 bln rupiah vs loss 3.31 bln -Bimantara Citra Q1 net profit 107.83 bln rupiah vs 15.07 bln -Bank Buana Q1 net profit 103.78 bln rupiah vs 76.23 bln -Bank Lippo Q1 net profit 103.68 bln rupiah vs 102.04 bln -Bakrie Sumatera Q1 net profit 52.12 bln rupiah vs 14.49 bln -Indomobil 2005 net profit 38.36 bln rupiah vs loss 58.96 bln -Bank Mega Q1 net profit 35.66 bln rupiah vs 134.62 bln -Citra Marga Q1 net profit 33.46 bln rupiah vs 20.63 bln -Bentoel Q1 net profit 30.75 bln rupiah vs 91.08 bln -Tjiwi Kimia 2005 net profit 18.02 mln usd vs 185.07 mln -Ramayana Q1 net profit 15.65 bln rupiah vs 47.69 bln -Bakrie Brothers Q1 net profit 15.04 bln rupiah vs 4.61 bln -Timah Q1 net profit 11.5 bln rupiah vs 57.4 bln -Timah Q1 net profit down 80 pct on low tin prices, high cost -Indah Kiat 2005 net profit 8.03 mln usd vs 392.49 mln -Hero Supermarket Q1 net profit 3.70 bln rupiah vs 517 mln
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Indonesia economic and corporate news summary BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - A summary of Indonesian economic and corporate news at 1000 GMT: -Bank Indonesia awards 38.20 trln rupiah 1-mth SBIs at avg rate 12.74 pct -Govt to open delayed gas pipeline tender on May 24 - BPH Migas -Pertamina halts kerosene imports -Pertamina, Exxon units to submit devt plan for Cepu block in 2 wks -Garuda Indonesia to introduce fuel surcharge -Bumi says proposed merger with Energi Mega would create 3 bln usd company -Berlian Laju sees Singapore listing delayed to June/July
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Corruption can be rooted out, says World Bank\r\nFinanceAsia.com\r\nBy Jame DiBiasio | 19 May 2006 \r\n\r\nIndonesia improving, Thailand slipping: better governance leads to economic growth in both emerging and developed nations.\r\n\r\nThe World Bank under its current president, Paul Wolfowitz, has made headlines for its decision to make corruption and governance issues a core part of decisions on extending loans to client governments. To detractors, this is an American neo-con fantasy, either a noble but foolish effort or an outright political attack on Washington’s opponents. Under this thinking, corruption is relative and hard to quantify, while good governance is a luxury for rich countries.\r\n\r\nNot so, argues Daniel Kaufman, director of global governance at the World Bank Institute, a research arm of the organisation based in Washington, DC, who recently covered the subject at a lunch in Hong Kong sponsored by the Asia Society. He peppered his arguments with references to his own country - Chile - an emerging market that thanks to proper governance from the top echelons of political life has surpassed its Latin American neighbours across any economic or social indicator.\r\n\r\nLesson number one, he says, is that corruption and bad governance is not linked to history, language or culture: compare similar societies in Chile and Argentina, Poland and Ukraine, or North and South Korea.\r\n\r\nBeyond such anecdotes, Kaufman’s main contention is that governance and corruption can be measured. Data can be brought to the battlefield. Once something can be quantified, policies can be gauged, with transparency key. Governance is, in fact, the missing ingredient from the so-called Washington Consensus of free trade, privatisation, liberalisation and macro stabilisation. And so far the record is clear: governance matters hugely to economic development.\r\n\r\nKaufman says that worldwide, governance hasn’t improved, but there is a lot of variance. Bad governance should not be confused with corruption; corruption is but one aspect, along with the quality of accountability, political stability, the effectiveness of economic policy, the quality of regulation, and the rule of law. Widespread corruption is often a symptom of other failings. All of these factors can be quantified, through vigorous research, and explain why Chile and Botswana are success stories and most of southern Africa is not.\r\n\r\nKaufman says good governance ultimately reaps a dividend of economic growth 300% better than countries without the right policies. Proper reform can quickly triple income levels, and over time lead to permanent leads in GDP. There is also a high correlation between governance and social factors such as infant mortality, literacy and the competitiveness of the private sector. But the reverse is not true: higher incomes don’t translate into better governance, he says, citing Russia and Venezuela.\r\n\r\nThe same goes for high-income countries, says Kaufman, who notes the shenanigans in Washington where he lives demonstrate how rich countries also have governance problems.\r\n\r\nEast Asia has divergent stories, as do all other regions of the world. Thailand has backtracked, but South Korea has advanced. “You can see improvements quickly if the leadership makes the necessary changes,” Kaufman says. One of the most promising stories in the world is in Southeast Asia: Indonesia. Justifiably notorious for corruption, under the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is making genuine efforts to change the country’s ways. Since he took power, the country has gone from 16th worst in the world to somewhere in the 40s. This is still a massively corrupt society but it is trending in the right direction, and Kaufman believes it has the potential to reach the top half of all measured countries within five to 10 years.\r\n\r\nBut this will require a sustained effort to not only weed out corruption, but to improve the bureaucracy, cut red tape, improve the nation’s infrastructure and reform its taxes. Why? Because corruption is linked to things such as procurement, rent-seeking, and private interests “capturing” (influencing) state organisations or utilities. Indonesia and other countries don’t need lots of new legislation; that would likely prove counterproductive, and create more dark corners for money to corrupt. Rather it needs to implement existing laws and improve the institutions of the state. Transparency, accountability and a free press are vital ingredients.\r\n\r\nUltimately, says Kaufman, governance depends on deregulation and developed capital markets, which impose discipline on the private sector. The World Bank stands ready to help those countries committed to this path.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIaNID=32632
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Indonesia plans to repay half of IMF loans in weeks Reuters, 29May2006, 15:19 JAKARTA, May 29 (Reuters) - Indonesia plans to repay half of the $7.8 billion in loans it owes to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) “within weeks” and the rest next year, the central bank said on Monday, adding “the sooner it is the better”. The early repayment would not hurt the rupiah, one of the most volatile Asian currencies this year, because Indonesia had adequate foreign exchange reserves, the central bank said. “We will repay 50 percent (of the IMF loans) this year, the rest next year. Let''s see. The sooner it is the better,” Bank Indonesia governor Burhanuddin Abdullah told reporters on the sidelines of a parliamentary hearing. When asked by reporters when the first 50 percent payment will be made, Abdullah said: “Within weeks.” The IMF put together a $43 billion package for Indonesia during the Asian crisis in the late 1990s, when several Asian economies slumped with huge debts as investors lost confidence in the region. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said last week that the debt, due for final payment by 2010, would be repaid in two years but did not give a more exact timeframe. At the time, the IMF''s senior resident representative in Indonesia, Stephen Schwartz, told Reuters that Yudhoyono''s remarks reflected “the improved balance of payments situation and strengthening of economic fundamentals” in Indonesia. ADEQUATE RESERVES Abdullah said Indonesia''s foreign exchange reserves were around $43.8 billion, up about 25 percent from the end of last year, partly due to higher receipts from commodity exports. Officials have said the increase in foreign exchange reserves has put Indonesia in a better position to repay the debt, which would also save on interest costs, and analysts agreed. “I think BI will still have enough reserves to pay for imports, repay government debt and conduct intervention in case the rupiah weakens after repaying the IMF loans ahead of schedule,” said economist Anton Gunawan of Citigroup. Indeed, Bank Indonesia central bank deputy governor Aslim Tadjuddin told reporters the planned early repayments would not hurt the rupiah. “The foreign exchange reserves are more than adequate. It will not hurt the exchange rate,” Tadjuddin said. The rupiah weakened more than a quarter of a percent to 9,260/9,265 per dollar early on Monday in an initial reaction to Saturday''s earthquake near Yogyakarta, which killed more than 5,100 people and destroyed thousands of homes around the city. It rebounded slightly to around 9,250 per dollar by 0715 GMT. The currency had been the most volatile of the Asian currencies this month as foreigners pulled out funds they had pumped into Indonesian equities and high-yielding stocks. ((Reporting by Muhamad Ari; editing by John Mair; ga.arka@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging: ga.arka.reuters.com@reuters.net; Tel: +62 21 384 6364)) ——————————————————————– Perlahan menuju investment grade… :-?
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