19:02 09Feb2006 RTRS-S&P raises Indonesia sovereign outlook to positive
LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Ratings agency Standard & Poor''s revised its outlook on Indonesia''s sovereign credit rating to positive from stable on Thursday, citing improvement in the country''s fiscal and monetary policies.
The agency affirmed its ‘'B+’' long-term foreign currency rating on Indonesia.
“The outlook revision takes into account the more favourable policy setting that emerged in the wake of significant adjustments in fiscal and monetary policy stance and the expectation this will improve deficit and debt ratios further,” S&P said in a statement.
It added that Indonesia''s more aggressive monetary policy and recent fuel subsidy cuts would help reduce vulnerability to currency weakness and reduce the debt burden.
Standard & Poor''s cautioned however that external vulnerability remained high while structural impediments continued to hamper economic growth.
14:43 09Feb2006 RTRS-Indonesia cuts maximum rupiah deposit rates
JAKARTA, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Indonesia''s state-owned deposit insurance corporation (LPS) is cutting its maximum rupiah guaranteed deposit rates for Feb. 15 to March 14 by 25 basis points from the previous Jan. 15 to Feb. 14 period, its chief, Krisna Wijaya, told Reuters on Thursday.
“The (economic) conditions have been conducive and stable. The banking sector has enough liquidity,” Wijaya said, adding that the rates will be gradually reduced further to make room for credit expansion.
The maximum guaranteed deposit rates in percent are as follows:
Feb 15 to Mar 14
1-month 12.75 4.50
3-month 12.80 4.50
6-month 12.85 4.50
12-month 12.90 4.50
24-month 12.95 4.50
Apakah ini akan menjadi representasi bahwa BI akan menerapkan lose liquidity juga untuk rapat dewan berikutnya? Soalnya terakhir kali Gubernur BI bilang kalo BI akan mengimplementasikan tight money policy.
Bukan mencetak uang lagi. Yg dimaksudkan adalah ini:\r\n\r\nUang Pemerintah Rp 60 Triliun Nganggur di BI\r\nSabtu, 11 Pebruari 2006 | 08:38 WIB\r\n\r\nTEMPO Interaktif, Jakarta: Dana Rp 60 triliun dari total Rp 80 triliun di rekening pemerintah di Bank Indonesia menganggur (idle). Direktur Jenderal Perbendaharaan Negara Departemen Keuangan, Mulia Nasution, mengatakan yang dimaksud idle, saldo rekening tak menghasilkan apa-apa. “Tak ada bunganya,” katanya di Jakarta, Jumat (10/2).\r\n\r\nMenurut dia, pemerintah memahaminya dan tak ingin menjadi masalah tersendiri dalam pengendalian moneter. Tapi otoritas fiskal dan moneter harus duduk bersama untuk mengatur agar pengelolaan kas pemerintah optimal dan pengendalian moneter berjalan dengan lebih baik.\r\n\r\nJika dana Rp 60 triliun memperoleh bunga, Mulai melanjutkan, akan dihitung sebagai penerimaan negara bukan pajak. Masalahnya, pemerintah tak mungkin memindahkan begitu saja dana itu dari BI untuk disimpan di bank-bank umum pemerintah dan swasta. dengan alasan keamanan.\r\n\r\nPemindahan dana ke bank komersial bisa dilakukan dalam jumlah kecil, misalnya Rp 10 triliun. Pelaksanaannya pun harus bertahap. Pemindahan itu akan berdampak positif yakni bisa menurunkan biaya pemberian kredit kepada bank-bank.
Indonesia''s Q4 GDP up 4.1-5.2 pct yr-on-yr after 5.34 pct Q3 rise
14/02/2006 2:33:15 PM
JAKARTA (AFX) - Fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to have grown by 4.1-5.2 pct year-on-year, down from the 5.34 pct growth recorded in the third quarter, analysts said.
They said full year GDP growth is expected to have reached 5.3-5.6 pct against 5.13 pct in 2004.
Slowing private consumption as a result of high inflation and rising interest rates led to a drop in fourth quarter GDP, they said.
In the second quarter last year GDP growth reached 5.54 pct.
The bureau plans to release Q4 GDP data tomorrow at a press conference scheduled for 1.30 pm local time (0630 GMT).
Danareksa Sekuritas economist Michael Hawari expects fourth quarter GDP to have risen by 5.2 pct year-on-year and by 5.6 pct for the whole of 2005. GDP growth may have declined by 1.7 pct from the third quarter, he said.
“As a result of the fuel price increase, purchasing power fell and people spent their money on basic necessities rather than durable goods,” Hawari said.
The fuel price hikes in April and October drove last year''s inflation up to its highest level since 1998 at 17.11 pct year-on-year.
High inflation and a weak rupiah prompted Bank Indonesia to raise its one-month key interest rate by a cumulative 533 basis points last year.
Consequently consumption of durable goods such as cars, motorcycles and electronics fell, Hawari said.
Data from the Indonesian Automotive Industries Association (Gaikindo) shows that 2005 domestic car sales reached 534,000 vehicles, below its initial forecast of 550,000, due to a slowdown in second half sales.
Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII) in a research report sees fourth quarter private consumption growth slowing to 3.59 pct compared to 4.94 pct in the year ago term.
Fewer working days in the fourth quarter amid long holidays in November and December also led to a decline in manufacturing output, BII economist Juniman said.
Lower agriculture output also contributed to the weaker GDP growth in the last quarter, while government consumption, which normally rises strongly during the third and fourth quarter, was only slightly higher due to late budget spending, he noted.
Juniman sees Q4 GDP up 5.06 pct year-on-year and down 1.81 pct quarter-on-quarter while full year growth is seen at 5.58 pct.
Citigroup economist Anton Gunawan expects fourth quarter GDP growth of 4.4 pct year-on-year and 5.4 pct for the full year. On a quarterly basis GDP should have declined by 2.4 pct, he said.
“Higher government spending in the last quarter of 2005 has likely provided some support for the real GDP growth in that quarter, but not enough to prevent an overall slowdown,” Gunawan said in a his research note.
He said private consumption and investment growth slowed in the quarter.
Growth in the construction sector and imports of capital goods, the two main engines behind the recent investment growth, have also been slowing since the October fuel price hike, he added.
Gunawan said output growth in the agriculture and mining sectors, which declined in the fourth quarter may continue to do so this year.