Untuk para KSC-er baik yang senior maupun junior, menurut prediksi atau analisa anda akan ke arah manakah pergerakan suku bunga yang akan diambil The Fed pada tahun 2006 ini? Naik, Turun atau sideways? Dan alasannya kenapa?
Biar kita2 para KSC-er dapat masukan dalam mengambil langkah tahun 2006.
Berarti suatu saat di tahun 2006 SBI musti naik juga yah, efeknya ke IHSG tentu berlawanan, bearish market for 2006? Bobo lama untuk sektor property? Banking?
Harga emas akankah melemah kalau USD menguat? dengan dibumbui inflasi “yang rendah”?
Investors May Be Misreading Fed Intentions
Saturday January 14, 7:41 pm ET
By Ellen Simon, AP Business Writer
Investors May Be Misreading Federal Reserve''s Intentions About Ending Short-Term Rate Hikes
NEW YORK (AP) – Wall Street could be wrong about the Federal Reserve – in more ways than one. Stocks rocketed higher after the Jan. 3 release of minutes from Fed policymaker''s most recent meeting. Investors interpreted the minutes to mean the end of the central bank''s 18-month streak of short-term interest rate hikes is near; the major indexes subsequently hit new 4 1/2 year highs on the assumption that once the Fed is finished raising rates, stocks will soar even higher.
But investors shouldn''t be so sure about when the rate hikes will end or what that will mean for stocks.
The Fed minutes dropped language contained in previous statements that described interest rates as being too low, or accommodative. And the minutes said Fed policymakers differed on how many further rate hikes may be needed.
What they didn''t say was, “We''re wrapping this up.”
Instead, Business Week''s interpretation of the notes put it succinctly: “We''re not sure.”
This interpretation was bolstered by a Jan. 9 speech by Atlanta Federal Reserve president Jack Guynn.
“Given the steady diet of ‘'measured’' rate hikes the Fed has provided in the past year and a half, many of you may be wondering when enough is enough,” Guynn said. “Let me first respond by saying, the closer we get, the less explicit we can be on that point; it''s my personal opinion that as policymakers we should resist the temptation to say more than we know at any given time.”
Merrill Lynch''s North American Economist David A. Rosenberg read the comments as “hinting for the first time that he does not know what the Fed will do next.”
Guynn is on the Fed system''s Federal Open Market Committee, which sets short-term interest rates. If he doesn''t know, do you really think your broker does?
Mickey Levy, Bank of America''s chief economist, has interpreted the Fed''s latest notes to mean the central bank is entering a “data dependent” phase, in which it will set policy using the latest data, instead of entering each policy meeting with the conviction that rates are too low.
Linda Duessel, market strategist at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh, agrees that “data dependent” are the Fed buzzwords of the moment.
“Everyone thinks the Fed minutes told us they were nearly done,” she said. “I don''t think so.
”We''re watching wages,“ she said. ”If wages start to go up, I think (incoming Fed chairman Ben) Bernanke is going to do what he thinks he needs to do.“
At some point, the rate hikes will stop. Wall Street''s assumption is that when they do, stocks will climb even higher.
Not necessarily, wrote Bank of America''s Thomas McManus in a note titled ”Popular view of ‘'what happens when the Fed stops’' is based on too few cycles.“
Looking at 20 separate tightening cycles over more than 50 years, he found that the Standard & Poor''s 500 performed better, on average, in the year leading up to a peak in rates than it did the year after the peak.
”This should not be a surprise,“ he wrote, ”as earnings are generally robust during Fed tightening, and the signals for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to move to the sidelines have typically included indications of a weaker economy, which can easily undermine stock valuations, even in a more supportive interest rate environment."
So, if the rate hikes end in 2006 and if the market sticks to historical patterns and performs worse than it did in 2005, then 2006 could be nothing special.
That''s not to say the end of Federal Reserve short-term rate hikes will hurt stocks. McManus found that each sector of the S&P 500 provided positive returns, on average, in the 12 months after rates peaked, but only three sectors provided double-digit returns. Those three sectors were consumer staples, health care and financial stocks, which are traditionally defensive sectors, the ones that tend to do well when the overall market is weak.
Which it may be in 2006. Or, maybe not. Wise investors know that some things are unknowable.
Bung Imam caranya beli saham luar negri baik yang di Dow Jones / Nikkei / Singapore Bagaimana ? memang bisa lewat sekuritas yang ada di Indonesia yang kelas Internasional misal KZ , ML, BK , HG, AK ? Kapan ya bisa on line international seperti valas, asyik tuh….
Thanks atas jawabannya….