Dow ini memang gila. sudah break down triangle, dibalikin lagi ke atas. Padahal stockaholic sempet mengira bakal ke 12000-12200-an dulu, eh dibalikin sekarang.
Kalo lewat 12600, kayaknya 12800 bisa dicapai dalam beberapa hari kedepan.
Apa mungkin rally ke 13500-14000 bisa terjadi lagi tahun ini? Kalo liat siklus, th pres election biasanya rally, plus kondisi bank2 sudah discounted/price in rasanya. JPM aja masih bisa naik biar profitnya turun (meet analyst estimate)
SHORT TERM: market rallies fueled by positive (?) earnings reports, DOW +257
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, with only Hong Kong displaying a slight loss. Europe came in +1.25%, and closed out their session +2.05%. US index futures rallied late yesterday on INTC''s positive outlook for the chip industry. Prices are being raised worldwide, and this not due to demand. At 8:30 March housing starts were reported to have dropped 11.9%, to their lowest level since 1991, and are down 37% annualized. The core CPI was reported +0.2%, and the CPI +0.3% for a +4.4% annualized reading. At 9:15 industrial production was reported to have ticked up 0.3%, better than expectations. The market took most of this news as positive and gapped up at the open. By 10:00 the SPX had reached 1350, breaking through the 1344 resistance pivot, and continued higher through the day. Even the 2:00 beige book report, which displayed an increase in the weakening of the economy, didn''t phase the rally. The market continued to rise, with small pullbacks right into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +2.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.85%. Bonds lost about 3/4 points, Crude gained $1.10 to new highs, Gold rallied $15.50 and the Euro made new highs. Support for the SPX notched up to 1364 and then 1344, with resistance at 1383 and then 1410. Short term momentum was overbought at the close. Tomorrow there is a speech from vice chairman Kohn at 9:45, and leading indicators/Philly FED at 10:00. It''s options expiration week.
The decline from 1387 to yesterday''s low of 1324 can still be counted as five waves down, with weak 4th and 5th waves. But it''s a bit sloppy, as was the topping process at 1387. The near term indicators did get oversold at the lows, but not totally in line with the typical wave 1''s in this bear market. With today''s rally, these same near term indicators have just as quickly started to get overbought at the 1364 pivot. Therefore, despite the enthusiastic rally today, we are continuing to count the decline from 1387 to 1324 as wave 1 of the next downtrend, with the current rally wave 2. If this is indeed the correct count, the SPX should not make much more upside progress, and certainly not reach 1387 again. If it does, then another double top should be forming, as everything with be completely overbought at that level. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped at 1387
LONG TERM: bear market