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More upside for emerging markets? Equity fund inflows exceed US$1b in week to Feb 18 Business Time, March 3, 2004 By GENEVIEVE CUA NEW money is rushing into emerging market equity funds at a blistering pace, in an early sign that total inflows for the whole of this year may well exceed last year''s record US$14 billion. The big question, however, is whether the surge is a bullish signal of liquidity that could boost equity markets, or latent signs of a bearish trend as investors chase performance, said US-based fund tracker EmergingPortfolio Fund Research (EPFR). According to EPFR, the pace of inflows so far this year is about twice that of last year. Inflows in the week ended Feb 18 exceeded US$1 billion for the first time since EPFR began to track the asset class in mid-2001. The surge reversed the previous two weeks of outflows worth a total of US$592 million. In the current year to date, the total inflow into emerging equity market funds totaled US$3.71 billion, or 4 per cent of total assets. In a statement, Brad Durham, managing director of EPFR, said: ‘'The flows we are seeing appear to be going largely into funds open only to institutional investors such as public and private pension funds. These investors tend to make long term asset allocation decisions based on a range of fundamental factors.’' Dedicated Asian equity managers in Singapore report strong inflows from institutional clients, as opposed to retail ‘'hot’' money which tends to be more volatile. Said Pieter van Putten of APS Asset Management: ‘'We see a lot of money coming to Asia from pension funds. That’'s a steady stream.'' Last year APS'' assets more than doubled to $3 billion. ''Definitely we still see value in markets, but we do not see as much value anymore in big stocks which everyone is buying to get a quick exposure to Asia,'' said Mr van Putten. ‘'But the second tier stocks that not everyone researches - that happens to be APS’' strength.'' Boutique manager Tan Chong Koay of Pheim Asset Management said: ‘'As long as earnings per share improves and share prices do not overshoot, this may still be a year for equities. People are frustrated with low interest rates. The correction in January and February is very good… Definitely we’'re still able to find value.'' US-based analyst BCA Research said in a February report that a rotational pattern has taken hold in emerging market equities: all of last year''s top performers are lagging so far this year, while last year''s laggards have been outperforming. The asset class includes Latin America, Russia, Asia ex-Japan and India. But do not expect the same level of returns as 2003, and the volatility can be ‘'jarring’'. Quality spreads are at six-year lows, dividend yields for the S&P 500 have dropped to 1.6 per cent. Commodity prices are at a six-year high and emerging markets have risen 80 per cent since October 2002, said BCA. ''All of these enormous gains are fermenting a sense that value will be harder to find. However, the large capital gains made last year have only raised investor appetite for larger gains in the future. ''This has created enormous pressure for managed portfolios, which will propel swift portfolio shifts among sectors, markets and asset classes to ‘'squeeze out’' gains,'' it said. BCA said it is not predicting a global downturn. Levels of business activity will remain high for some time due to low interest rates and pro-growth policies among major countries. But it expects the pace of expansion to soften. ‘'This will be reflected in financial markets, which will in turn precipitate more frequent and jarring rotations.’' It expects a sharp shakeout in some overpriced sectors. ''The bottom line is that investors need to be more nimble than last year to sustain good performance. Sector and market rotations will be crucial to achieve above average gains.'' BCA recommends focusing on last year''s laggards, including Taiwan, Malaysia and Russia. Chinese H shares, it said, are very overbought. But other classes of Chinese stocks like red chips, B shares and even the domestic A share market have lagged and are likely to outperform. India was last year''s darling, said BCA. It warns that based on its valuation model - which is drawn from normalised earnings, interest rates and forward PEs - the Indian market is above fair value. Its liquidity indicator also suggests that the stock market has peaked and equity prices are at risk. Meanwhile, the torrent of fresh money into emerging market bond funds slowed to a trickle in February. The asset class took in a modest US$10 million in the week ending Feb 25. Still, EPFR said the cumulative inflow in the current year at US$989 million still exceeds the US$933.7 million surge in January and February period last year. Last year, the funds attracted nearly US$4 billion in inflows. The asset class had two years of strong returns, but now political concerns are weighing down investor sentiment.
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Singapore''s Temasek to make public financial report for first time ChannelNewsAsia.com, March 23, 2004 SINGAPORE : Singapore''s Temasek Holdings will this year make public its annual financial report for the first time in its 30-year history, a spokeswoman for the Singapore investment holding company said on Tuesday. The move to publicly release the figures for the current financial year ending on March 31 comes amid a broader push by the company to demystify its operations as it seeks to expand throughout Asia. “We plan to publish an annual report in July or August,” Eva Ho, Temasek''s director of corporate communications, told AFP. “It will be the first time that we are probably making it available to a large audience. We have always had annual reports but it (has had a) restricted circulation.” The finance ministry and board directors are among those who have previously been given the firm''s annual report. Temasek has revealed little publicly about its investments since its establishment in 1974 but that has begun to change following the appointment of Ho Ching as executive director in 2002. Under Ho, the wife of Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, efforts to shed more light on Temasek have accelerated in recent months. Last month, Ho revealed in a policy speech that Temasek would move towards greater transparency by opening up its books to get a credit rating. “This will be part of a measured process of opening up and demystifying Temasek,” she said in the speech which surprised many observers because it contained details normally not shared with the public. Ho also revealed the financial returns Temasek has made on its investments over the past 10 years. Analysts have said the move towards greater transparency was necessary as Temasek stepped up its investment in Asia. Temasek''s regional portfolio has expanded over the past year. It recently joined forces with Germany''s Deutsche Bank in a winning bid for a 51 percent stake in Indonesia''s fifth largest lender, Bank Danamon, valued at 350 million US dollars. In December it bought a 5.2 percent stake in India''s largest private lender, ICICI Bank, worth an estimated 200 million dollars. - AFP
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Bung ALFA,Anda berada di Jakarta,pakailah bahasa INDONESIA biar semua ngerti ,OK?
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Bung ALFA,Anda berada di Jakarta,pakailah bahasa INDONESIA biar semua ngerti ,OK? Maaf, saya tidaklah sangat mahir dalam menterjemahkan Bahasa Inggris ke Bahasa Indonesia….. Jadi yang saya lakukan cuma mengkutip dan menempatkannya kembali di forum ini (copy & paste)…. OK?
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INTERVIEW-Emerging markets guru Mobius: Stay in the game Reuters, 03.18.04, 4:15 AM ET By Jack Reerink SINGAPORE, March 18 (Reuters) - Emerging markets specialist Mark Mobius believes the biggest mistake investors can make is taking their money off the table too soon. The celebrity fund manager, who oversees $13 billion for Templeton Asset Management, is bullish even as stocks in Brazil and Thailand have doubled in value in the past year and foreign investors throw in more cash every month. “It''s not worrying yet. The valuations are not excessive. There were times when price-earnings ratios were higher than the U.S. market. Now it''s about half,” said Mobius, who has long been a fixture of emerging markets investing with his incessant travelling, bald-shaved head and immaculate tropical suits. “If you see brokers stock up on analysts and see more and more research reports appearing, then it''s time to worry.” Mobius, who is a resident of Singapore but spends most of his time in airplanes and hotels around the world, sees emerging markets pushed forward by consumer spending, bumper commodity prices and valuations reaching developed market levels. “It doesn''t mean we''re going to have a 50 percent annual gain year again, but we''re not going to crash,” said the bachelor, who just came back from Hong Kong and was on his way to India. “This is a mistake managers often make: Selling too early. We leave an awful lot of money on the table.” Things have changed since the Asia financial crisis of 1997 and 1998, said Mobius, who describes his age as “in the mid-sixties.” Central banks have smartened up, the financial system is in better shape and stock prices are cheaper. There are no guarantees, though. “The most expensive words in the world are: ‘'This time is different,’'” said Mobius, who speaks six languages. The weakening U.S. dollar – usually a bad sign for export-dependent emerging markets – isn''t worrying Mobius. Many Asian currencies are undervalued by 20 percent and should gain on bumper export earnings, foreign investment and balanced budgets. “A 10 to 15 percent appreciation will not have much of an impact because companies are very competitive and many have (long-term) supply contracts,” Mobius said. “At the same time, we''re seeing a transformation from export-led economies to consumer-led ones. So hopefully these two trends will converge.” Asia can also cope with 13-year-high oil prices and 20-year-high commodity prices, although some industries are starting to hurt, said Mobius, adding he just visited a company desperate for stainless steel. On the plus side, commodity exporters such as Brazil and Malaysia are good investment picks. FAVOURITES Mobius'' favourites remain South Korea and Taiwan but he is also bullish on China, particularly telecom stocks such as China Telecom, and petrochemical and consumer stocks. Mining and oil stocks are other favourites: Anglo American and Russia''s Lukoil are in the top three holdings of Mobius'' flagship fund, the $2.5 billion institutional Templeton emerging markets fund. South Korea and Taiwan are his fund''s top two markets, accounting for a quarter of the total. Mobius, who oversees some 50 analysts and associates in 11 countries, thinks he can beat his peers by investing in companies overlooked by others. His fund''s biggest Taiwan holding, for example, is Sunplus Technology, a tech firm with a $1.7 billion market value. Investor darlings Samsung Electronics and TSMC are not in its top 25 holdings. Corporate fraud scandals and an impeached president in South Korea don''t bother Mobius, who has lived in Asia for more than 40 years after growing up in New York. He sees them as growing pains. “All these kind of things are upsetting, but they are very good in the long term,” Mobius said. “They need to disassociate themselves from what made them successful on the world stage – government support of the conglomerates.” By the same token, Mobius isn''t unduly worried by the investor craze for China-related stocks, which saw a Hong Kong shipping clerk borrowing 11 times his annual salary to buy into the $3 billion China Life IPO. The fizzled debut of chipmaker SMIC on Thursday is a good sign, he said. “It means the market is picking and choosing, rather than buying on sight,” he said. EMERGING CRISES Acknowledging the bust-and-boom nature of emerging markets, Mobius advises investors to invest a little at a time to avoid getting caught in a sudden down-drift. “You have to be willing to buy when prices are low. The problem we have as managers is that investors flood us with money at the wrong time and have a tendency not to be in the market at the right time,” said Mobius. His emerging markets fund has zoomed up by two-thirds in the past year. But somebody who invested with him a decade ago would have a return of just 2.6 percent a year, beating other emerging markets funds, but lagging deposit rates in just about every country except Japan. Mobius thinks there''s upside, even as stocks have soared. “The percentages are misleading,” he said. “If you go from 10 to one, that''s a 90 percent decline. Then from one to two, it''s a 100 percent return. That''s where we are.” Copyright 2004, Reuters News Service http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/03/18/rtr1303278.html
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HONG KONG, March 16 (Reuters) - Attractive stock valuations and huge potential upside compared to Europe and the United States means that now is the time to invest in Asia, emerging markets guru Mark Mobius said on Tuesday. “The forward price earnings ratios of Asian companies are much lower than the U.S. and Europe,” Mobius, managing director of Templeton Asset Management, said in a presentation to reporters in Hong Kong. “Potential increases from where we are now to the high point of these markets could be as much as 400 percent in the Philippines, 300 percent for Red Chip stocks in Hong Kong, and 200 percent for Indonesia,” said Mobius. At present, Templeton''s Asian Growth Fund is overweight South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines, while it is underweight Greater China, Singapore and India. Mobius said there was room for China, as well as India, Singapore and Malaysia to grow in the portfolio. He said that Templeton''s investment approach at the moment was based around what he called the “three Cs” of consumer, commodities and convergence plays. The latter, referring to the increasing convergence of the economies of Hong Kong and China, Taiwan and China, Korea and China, and Korea with the rest of South East Asia, said Mobius. In terms of sectoral allocations, Templeton''s Asian Growth Fund is currently overweight industrials, energy stocks, telecoms, consumer staples and basic materials. But is strongly underweight financials and information technology companies. “IT stocks are relatively expensive, but on the other hand utilities are quite attractive because of yield,” Mobius said. “You have a situation in China where the demand (for power) from industry is outstripping supply.” Mobius said that corporate governance remained a major concern for Templeton, but he noted that given the Enron and Worldcom scandals in the U.S. and the high profile problems of Parmalat in Italy, it was not simply a problem for Asia. Templeton has been embroiled in a bruising battle with South Korea''s SK Corp , backing Sovereign Asset Management''s efforts to try and oust the founding family from the country''s largest oil refiner following the discovery of a US$1.3 billion accounting fraud. But Mobius said that one of the reasons Templeton was overweight Korea was because they anticipate reforms will enhance shareholder value. “Korean companies are undervalued for that reason, because of corporate governance,” said Mobius. “We see changes in corporate governance in Korea which will enhance future value.”
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Yah gue percaya kalo saham2 bej divaluasi spt saham2 di nasdaq sih ga heran index jsx bisa 2000. Persoalannya brp banyak duit yg setuju bhw saham bej layak divaluasi semahal itu.
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]HONG KONG, March 16 (Reuters) - At present, Templeton''s Asian Growth Fund is overweight South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines, while it is underweight Greater China, Singapore and India. Mobius said there was room for China, as well as India, Singapore and Malaysia to grow in the portfolio. "[/quote
So at present Indonesia wait and see….aza ya…smile
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Is Warren Buffett right? Business Standard, March 18, 2004 The year 2003 was quite frustrating for the bears and value investors alike. Almost all financial assets went up, be they bonds or equities, whether in emerging markets, the United States, Europe or even Japan. In fact the riskier the asset the higher the return, with emerging market equities and bonds leading the pack followed by junk bonds and junk companies (stocks with price below $1). The reflation trade was on in full measure with beta being the defining characteristic determining out-performance. Commodities as an asset class also had a great year. The only asset class to actually decline was the US dollar, driven more by the sustainability of its financial imbalances. As we move deeper into 2004, the markets are already beginning to move into a more fundamental mode and investors are beginning to question valuations once again (at last). Technology as a sector is beginning to fade and the top 12 tech names in the US have seen their combined market capitalisation stall at $1.2 trillion for the last 6 months despite the markets being up over 10 per cent in this period. As markets hopefully focus more on fundamentals the first question as always will be “ how cheap are the markets?”. Ultimately valuations at entry (when making an investment)are the most important determinant of long-term returns. I plan to focus in this essay on the US, as it remains the driver of global markets, but broadly similar conclusions can be arrived at for most developed markets. If you listen to Warren Buffett and many other of the more seasoned investors, they are quite emphatic that in no way can Wall Street be called cheap. Buffett in his latest missive opines “We''ve found it hard to find significantly undervalued stocks. The shortage of attractively-priced stocks in which we can put large sums doesn''t bother us. Our capital is underutilised now, but that will happen periodically. It''s a painful condition to be in but not as painful as doing something stupid.” So the great man has very clearly spoken. He obviously thinks the US market is over valued, but what do the valuation metrics look like? Is the case that clear cut? To answer this question I have always found the work of Dresdner interesting in this regard. They use valuation metrics which attempt to strip out the business cycle but at the same time are not exotic equations but simple P/E''s. They use three such measures, the Graham and Dodd PE (prices are compared to a ten-year moving average of earnings), the Hussman PE (where prices are compared to peak cycle earnings) and a trend PE (where prices are compared to trend earnings plotted since 1955). I find these valuation measures to be far more robust and useful in cutting out a lot of the noise associated with tracking the US markets and its quarterly results phobia. They also force one to take a truly long-term view of the markets, valuation history and are more stable over time. If you look at the current levels of these three PE''s and their long-term averages, the message is very clear, the US markets are very expensive relative to their own history. The Graham and Dodd PE has a current reading of 30 versus its long-term average (LTA)of 17.6, the Hussman PE has a current reading of 20.6 versus an LTA of 11.7 and the Trend PE has a reading of 23 now versus an LTA of 16. Of course most investors do not tend to use these type of longer term measures and find solace in using PE multiples of one year forward (pro-forma) earnings. No matter all the issues with using pro-forma numbers (not audited, no uniformity), even on this metric the market is not cheap. The current 12 m forward PE based on consensus numbers is 18. The average since 1985 is around 15,being closer to 13 if you strip out the bubble years. One can only use this metric for comparison purposes since 1985 as there was no formal collation of one year forward consensus earnings numbers by anyone before this date. However Dresdner – using some assumptions – has attempted to recreate a one year forward PE multiple series since 1955 and arrives at a long-term average of 12 for this metric. Comparing this long-term average to the current 18, it again indicates significant overvaluation. The bulls always tend to fall back on the defence of valuations being cheap compared to interest rates. Some variant of the Fed model is used and will show equities as being cheap compared to the current low bond yields. The problem with this in my view is that being a relative valuation tool you run the risk of the model showing you that bonds are very expensive as opposed to equities being cheap. It is similar to how in the Internet bubble anything looked cheap compared to say an Amazon or Yahoo, and this relative comparison was used to justify the valuations of a whole bunch of dodgy Internet start ups. People only realised later that everything else looked cheap because of the absurd valuation levels reached by these two Internet icons. The low interest rate argument also suffers from what Dresdner calls money illusion. Equity prices should equal the net present value of all future cash flows, and the market is an aggregation of all the individual companies. These future cash flows are largely indexed to inflation, 75 per cent of the earnings growth achieved since 1950 has been the result of inflation. If nominal bond yields are low it is likely due to reduced inflation expectations. These reduced expectations equally impact the prospects of future cash flow growth for equities. What is gained from a lower discount rate will be lost from a lower cash flow growth profile. Hence the net effect on equities of very low bond yields should be minimal. The other problem with low interest rates is that you risk PE contraction over time, which will significantly lower long-term equity returns. Your best chance of multiple expansion is actually when current interest rates are high not low. Low interest rates may explain why current PE''s are high (money illusion) but they say nothing about future sustainability of these PE''s. Thus whichever way you look at it, using more stable longer term valuation measures, it seems difficult to call the US equity market cheap. Momentum aside the fundamental valuation support for this market looks weak. In my book at least, the current low interest rates cannot be used as an excuse to justify valuations. Investors are probably well served to heed Mr Buffet''s advice and not feel compelled to invest simply because they have cash. Having the discipline to keep cash lying idle until a truly attractive investment opportunity arises is probably one of the most difficult things for an investor to do. Human nature compels us to always want to be in the middle of the action. This ability to resist is what sets apart good investors from the mediocre. http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2004/mar/18guest.htm
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Human nature compels us to always want to be in the middle of the action. This ability to resist is what sets apart good investors from the mediocre. bagus juga nih buat investor, tp bukan buat trader kali yah. Bung Alfa komporin Buffet dan yg nulis artikel donk kalo masih banyak saham murah di BEJ ….
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