Ternyata banyak juga yang optimis.
Surge in gold options above $1,000 hints at hedge fund interest
Posted by: “cxpowell” CXPowell@yahoo.com cxpowell
Fri Jul 14, 2006 9:00 am (PST)
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Friday, July 14, 2006
A sudden surge in demand for gold options cashable at over $1,000 an
ounce is the clearest sign to date that hedge funds and savvy
traders are betting on a big rise in bullion prices.
UBS said investors had begun to show keen interest in “call” options
to expire in December with strike prices of $1,000 an ounce and
The bank said buyers had even emerged for options dated late 2007
with a strike price of $2,500.
John Reade, the bank''s precious metals strategist, said: “Clearly
some options traders are positioning themselves for very large moves
The prices are far above gold''s all-time high of $850 at the height
of the oil and inflation crisis in 1980. Gold closed yesterday at
Buying a call option gives investors the right to buy a quantity of
metal (or shares or other instrument) at a fixed price, on a set
date. If the price falls short, the option expires worthless. If it
shoots above the strike level, traders can make huge multiples on
their stake. “Put” options act in reverse, gambling on a price fall.
Mr. Reade said: “They''re like lottery tickets. You lose most of the
time, but when you win, you can win big.”
The December 2006 call option with a strike price of 1,000 last
traded at $3.60. This means a bet of $3.60 could net $100 if gold
reaches $1,100 an ounce by December, or $200 if it reaches $1,200,
and so on.
Traders can re-sell options any time before expiry, making fat gains
on wild volatility.
The options are traded on New York''s Comex exchange, or on the Over
the Counter (OTC) market. The bulk are issued by UBS, Deutsche Bank,
and Goldman Sachs.
Gold has shown remarkable resilience since crashing from $730 to
$544 an ounce in the May commodity sell-off.
The metal has regained more than half the ground, bringing in a
fresh wave of “black box” momentum traders this week after breaking
through key technical resistance at $637.
Ross Norman, director of TheBullionDesk.com, said gold was still
under-priced compared to oil, trading at about eight barrels of
crude per ounce compared to an historic average of nearer 15.
“Gold is due a catch-up. Once it goes above $750 there is potential
for galloping price rises,” he said.
Both the Russian and Emirate central banks are supporting the
market, each buying the dips in a slow move to lift the gold share
of their foreign reserves to 10 percent
It is hard to pinpoint why so many wealthy investors have become
gold bugs, but fears of a dollar slide are a key part of the picture.
The concern is that the US Federal Reserve will ultimately opt for
easy money rather than dispensing bitter medicine to purge excesses
of debt and over-spending. Neither the euro nor the yen are seen as
strong enough to serve as durable alternatives.
Key EU finance ministers have already said they will resist a rise
in the euro above $1.30, while Japan''s finance ministry is battling
to hold down the yen.
Untuk sementara spot gold akan berada dalam trading range di antara $600-$640. Pecahnya salah satu level akan memberikan arah pergerakan selanjutnya.
Just my view
GOLD REBOUNDS AFTER SELL-OFF
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Gold bounced back on Tuesday as buying emerged after the metal held above a key level of $600 an ounce despite a heavy sell-off the previous day, but a firm U.S. dollar was likely to pare gains. Spot gold rose to $618.00/619.00 ounce from $612.10/612.85 an ounce late in New York on Monday, when it fell to its lowest level in nearly four weeks to $601.60 an ounce. -Reuters
Currency Regime Change 7/28/06 \r\n \r\nBy Doug Casey \r\nJuly 28, 2006 \r\n\r\nwww.KitcoCasey.com \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\nThere is a major change coming that will catch most investors by surprise: the end of the U.S. dollar as the de-facto world reserve currency.\r\n\r\nPlay it right and you can make life-changing returns. \r\n\r\n\r\nCentral Banks Looking to Exit the Dollar\r\n\r\nIn the International Speculator, we’ve often mentioned the inevitable move by central banks to diversify their reserves out of the U.S. dollar. We’ve noted that, apart from the current situation, there is no precedent for any non-redeemable paper currency being held as the primary reserve of the world’s central banks.\r\n\r\nThat diversification out of the dollar, with a lot going into gold, has begun. A regime change is afoot—though few have yet recognized it.\r\n\r\nRecently, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian central bank to raise the gold share of its foreign reserves from 5% to 10%. That’s no small matter, given that Russia''s reserves have surged to $247 billion—the world''s fourth largest. \r\n\r\nAccomplishing the shift to 10% gold would require purchasing 21 million ounces of bullion, which is about one-quarter of the world’s annual mine production. And thanks largely to oil exports, Russia is accumulating additional foreign currency reserves at a rate of about $100 billion per year. With reserves growing so rapidly, just keeping the gold portion at 5% would require Russia to absorb a big slice of the world’s mine output.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile, in China, Monetary Committee member Yu Yongding is not alone in calling for Beijing to diversify its $875 billion reserves into gold to protect against a tumbling dollar. We quoted him last month, saying: “We need to use some of the reserves to buy other assets such as gold and strategic resources such as oil.” More recently, Zhao Qingming from the Chinese central bank''s Financial Research Institute and Luo Bin from its accounting department wrote in a note published in China Money Market that using some of China’s forex reserves to buy gold could “maintain and raise the value of China''s dollar holdings.” That conclusion seems questionable, but the important thing is that more Chinese officials are jumping on this bandwagon. It’s an idea whose time is coming—soon.\r\n\r\nGiven the trillions of U.S. dollars washing around the world’s monetary system, these are not inconsequential developments. Quite the contrary. They greatly favor gold and other tangibles. What’s the alternative for a dollar-heavy investor or central bank? The Who-Owes-You-Nothing euro? Or the yen, which is the proximate cause of the current bubble? How about the Zambian kwacha or the Vietnamese dong? I think not.\r\n\r\nWhat’s Next? \r\n\r\nAs explained in the April 2006 International Speculator article, Seasons of Gold, thanks to the traditional seasonal pattern, buying will pick up in August, which should kick gold solidly back into gear. After that, as the wheels start to come off the global economy, I expect gold to gain serious upside momentum. That’s not to say there won’t be corrections, even substantial ones, along gold’s trek to $2,000 and beyond. There will be. But the trend for higher gold prices is firmly entrenched. \r\n\r\nWhile there are many reasons for that trend to accelerate, the most important is the desire to hold the metal. That’s why it’s so significant that investment demand for gold is up 37% over the past year, much of the latter flowing into the more easily accessible and convenient Exchange Traded Funds. \r\n\r\nDemand will only rise as the months go by and everyone from central bankers to oil sheiks to hedge fund managers to everyday Joes piles into gold out of distrust of the U.S. dollar… and of the government that purports to stand behind it.\r\n\r\nAnd pile in they will, because money debasement is still very much the name of the game. If you were one of those resource stock investors who started to panic at the depths of the recent gold correction, take heart: the big-picture, fundamental reasons for holding gold—and especially high-quality gold and silver shares—are as much with us now as they were a month ago, and gold’s continuing march upwards is far from over. In fact, I suspect in the historical context, it has hardly begun.\r\n\r\nCentral banks bailing out of the dollar, the wheels coming off the U.S. economy—the nightmare of every investor. Or maybe not… If you invest wisely now, the emerging paper bear market will eventually prove in your favor. As foreign governments look to avail themselves of more gold for their reserves, you should do the same. And investing in gold and other natural resource stocks is a strategy that promises even higher returns… if you pick the right companies.
Gold rallies on weak dollar, rising oil
NEW YORK (XFN-ASIA) - Gold prices rushed to a 2-week high Tuesday as the
dollar slipped lower and crude oil breached the $75-a-barrel mark.
Most-active December gold settled $12 higher at $658.80 a troy ounce.
During the session the contract broke to a high of $659.30 an ounce.
Jim Quinn, a commodity floor analyst at AG Edwards, said the dollar had
lost ground and prompted a strong round of buying in gold. He added that the
growing tension between Israel and Hezbollah also caused prices to rise.
The dollar fell Tuesday against the 12-nation euro, which bought $1.2817
in afternoon New York trading, up from $1.2768 a day earlier.
September silver rose to a high of $11.81 an ounce, before settling at
$11.74 an ounce, up 37 cents on the day.
October platinum settled up $16.90 at $1,258.50 an ounce.
Copper futures failed to take out Monday''s peak of $3.6550 – its best
level since July 19 – but they settled higher on the day, due to possible
supply disruptions. The most active September contract settled up 2.3 cents
at $3.5930 per pound.
The front-month September light, sweet crude contract settled up 51 cents
at $74.91 a barrel. Prices rose as high as $75.45.
September gasoline settled up 6.44 cents at $2.2762 a gallon and
September heating oil settled up 4.28 cents at $2.0804 a gallon.
September natural gas fell 63.7 cents to settle at $7.574 a million
British thermal units.
On the New York Board of Trade, September Arabica coffee futures ended 1.
05 cent lower at 98.30 cents per pound.
The most-active September cocoa contract finished the day up $1 at $1,487
per metric ton.
October futures for raw sugar in foreign ports settled down 0.01 cent at
14.90 cents a pound.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, September corn rose 1.5 cents to $2.4050
per bushel. August soybeans ended 6 cents lower at $5.7350 a bushel.
September wheat settled 5 cents lower at $3.9250 a bushel.
Gold drops on falling energy prices
NEW YORK (XFN-ASIA) - Gold prices fell Monday, pulled down by dropping
energy prices as an Atlantic storm no longer appeared to threaten Gulf coast
December gold fell $6.90 to $623.90 a troy ounce on the New York
“As oil came down, you''re seeing some corroborative selling,” said
Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. He cited fund
selling in light summer-vacation conditions.
September silver dropped 34.5 cents to settle at $12.025 an ounce.
October platinum fell $5.30 to settle at $1,227.70 an ounce.
September palladium fell $4.35 to settle at 341.45 an ounce.
Most-active December copper settled up 1.90 cents at $3.4505 per pound.
Oil prices dropped nearly $2 a barrel Monday as Ernesto was downgraded to
a tropical storm and forecast to miss the energy production areas of the Gulf
of Mexico. October crude oil settled down $1.90 a barrel to $70.61 after hitting an
intraday low of $70.15. The September gasoline contract settled down 11.20 cents to $1.7831 a
gallon. The September heating oil contract slid 6.39 cents to $1.9659 a
gallon. September natural gas settled down 68.5 cents at $6.472 a million British
On the New York Board of Trade, September Arabica coffee futures fell 3
cents to $1.0320 a pound. December lost 3 cents to $1.0725 a pound. Sellers
were influenced by rain in Brazil''s growing areas Sunday and Monday after
prolonged dryness, with more showers likely to arrive this weekend.
Most-active December cocoa settled $51 lower at $1,459 per metric ton –
its weakest price since November 2005 – while March fell $51 to $1,501 a ton.
Futures on raw sugar in foreign ports for October settled down 0.17 cent
at 12.13 cents a pound and March lost 0.16 cents to 12.92 cents.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, September corn slipped 0.50 cent to $2.
2450 cents per bushel. September soybeans ended 5.25 cents lower at $5.37.75
per bushel. December wheat futures ended 6.25 cents higher at $3.8475 per