Dampak Penurunan Suku Bunga Terhadap IHSG Minim, Ini Kata Analis

Sejumlah analis menilai keputusan Bank Indonesia untuk menurunkan suku bunga untuk pertama kali dalam 2 tahun terakhir ke level 5,75% tak mampu mengerek indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) secara signifikan. Pada akhir perdagangan Kamis (18/7/2019), IHSG ditutup menguat tipis 0,13% ke level 6.403. Secara year-to-date (ytd) indeks tumbuh 3,37%. Kepala Riset MNC Sekuritas Edwin Sebayang menjelaskan, secara umum sebenarnya penurunan suku bunga akan berdampak positif terhadap perekonomian. Namun, sejak 5 tahun terakhir, pengaruh kebijakan moneter tampak sudah kebal pengaruhnya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. “Saya melihat penurunan suku bunga 25 bps itu tidak akan banyak berpengaruh terhadap ekonomi Indonesia. Ke IHSG juga naiknya tidak terlalu kencang karena ke depannya masih ada kekhawatiran perlambatan ekonomi China akibat perang dagang,” kata Edwin di Jakarta, Kamis (18/7/2019). Edwin pun memperkirakan BI berpeluang menurunkan suku bunga sekali lagi hingga menyentuh level 5,5% hingga akhir tahun. Kendati demikian, dia mengingatkan bank sentral harus tetap berhati-hati dengan terjadinya deflasi ketika daya beli masyarakat turun akibat banyaknya ketidakpastian. Dirinya menambahkan, keputusan BI untuk menurunkan suku bunga saat ini justru akan menjadi penyebab keluarnya aliran modal asing (capital outflow). Berdasarkan data Bursa Efek Indonesia, selama hari perdagangan, investor asing melakukan aksi jual bersih (net sell) senilai Rp309,78 miliar. Sejak awal tahun, telah terjadi aksi beli bersih (net buy) investor asing senilai Rp72,18 triliun. Analis Artha Sekuritas Dennies Christoper Jordan menambahkan, BI yang lebih dulu memangkas suku bunga acuan dari Bank Sentral AS (Federal Reserve) telah membuat investor asing meninggalkan saham-saham big caps perbankan. Adapun sektor keuangan telah menjadi penekan IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis (18/7/2019) dengan pelemahan sebesar 0,72%. “Saya rasa pelemahan sektor keuangan hanya jangka pendek. Karena [pernurunan suku bunga] akan membuat cost of fund turun. Selain itu, nasabah akan cenderung lebih berani untuk ambil kredit,” kata Dennies. Adapun para analis sepakat sektor yang sensitif terhadap pergerakan bunga akan mendapat sentimen positif dari pelonggaran moneter tersebut, seperti sektor properti, keuangan, konstruksi, dan sektor-sektor turunannya. Edwin pun merekomendasikan saham-saham seperti SMRA, BSDE, PWON, CTRA, BEST, DMAS, SSIA, WIKA, ADHI, PTPP, dan WSKT. Sementara Dennies merekomendasikan ANTM, WSBP,BBRI, BSDE, JSMR, INDY, dan SMRA.
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