IHSG Akhir Tahun Ditaksir Tembus 6.800

Kendatipun perang dagang Amerika dengan China masih menjadi sentimen negatif perdagangan saham di pasar modal, namun pelaku pasar masih optimis tetap tumbuh seiring dengan tensi politik dalam negeri yang mereda. Mempertimbangkan hal tersebut, Mandiri Sekuritas masih memproyeksikan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) akan berada di level 6.800 hingga akhir tahun 2019. Head of Equity Research Mandiri Sekuritas, Adrian Joezer mengatakan, hal tersebut tak lepas dari proyeksinya terhadap rasio earning per share (EPS) atau laba per lembar saham indeks domestik. “Kami memproyeksikan pada tahun ini, growth EPS emiten ada di kisaran 8% dan untuk tahun 2020 ada di angka 10%,” ungkapnya di Jakarta. Sebelumnya, Mandiri Sekuritas (Mansek) sudah memangkas proyeksi IHSG itu. Pada awal tahun, Mandiri Sekuritas memproyeksikan IHSG akan berada di level 7.000.“Tapi harus diakui konsensus EPS kita awalnya 10%. Namun karena di kuartal I ternyata hanya 7%, kami coba sesuaikan akan ada di angka 8% hingga akhir tahun,” jelas Adrian. Adrian mengatakan, realisasi EPS di triwulan pertama itu disebabkan oleh tekanan pada beberapa sektor. Termasuk dari sektor komoditas. “Kalau kami exclude emiten di sektor komoditas, maka growth EPS juga masih baik yakni di level 10%. Jadi, bertahan di level 6.800 hingga akhir tahun bukanlah tidak mungkin,”ujarnya. Itu belum membandingkan dengan EPS growth di negara lain. Adrian menuturkan, perang dagang terus menekan EPS growth secara global. “Secara global, level kita masih ada di tengah-tengah. Beberapa negara ada yang bahkan pertumbuhannya minus single digit. Yang terdekat seperti Thailand aja 4%,” papar Adrian. Selain itu, price to earning ratio (PER) IHSG disebutnya berada pada level yang cukup baik. Hitungannya menemukan, PER IHSG berada di angka 13 kali. “Itulah yang membuat rebound IHSGkita cukup tinggi meski kemarin sempat beberapa kali turun cukup dalam,” tambah Adrian. Optimisme Adrian itu juga didasari oleh beberapa indikator makro. Dirinya mencontohkan, IMF beberapa kali memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global pada tahun ini. Oktober 2018 lalu, proyeksi IMF untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi global berada di kisaran 3,8%. Setelahnya pada Januari lalu, IMF memangkas proyeksinya di kisaran 3,5%. Itu pun belum final, pada April lalu IMF kembali memangkas pertumbuhan ekonomi global di level 3,3%. Perang dagang antara Amerika Serikat (AS) dengan China menjadi biang keladi itu. Meski pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di kuartal I lalu luput dari konsensus yakni di level 5,07%, namun angka itu masih cenderung baik. “Kalau kita lihat secara global, pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal I lalu secara year on year turun drastis dari 4,10% di tahun lalu menjadi 3,71% pada tahun ini,” jelas Adrian. Hal itu juga belum menghitung mengenai proyeksi penguatan rupiah yang akan terjadi di kuartal II. Adrian mengatakan secara tren current account deficit (CAD) di kuartal II akan lebih baik dari kuartal I. “Belum juga menimbang tingginya pembayaran dividen serta penguatan impor pasca ketidak pastian pemilu, bisa menjadi sentimen baik bagi rupiah juga bagi IHSG,” kata Adrian.
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