MONITORING KRISIS EKONOMI - XVI

(Minggu III Desember 2007)
TRADING ALERT & REVIEW: SAHAM EMAS

Topik kali ini:
ANALISA MEKANISME FUNDAMENTAL JANGKA PENDEK
ANALISA FUNDAMENTAL JANGKA PANJANG
SUPPORT YANG KUAT
RALLY EMAS SEGERA BERLANJUT KEMBALI
ADAKAH KOREKSI BERSIMPATI?
REVIEW SAHAM EMAS


ANALISA MEKANISME FUNDAMENTAL JANGKA PENDEK
Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) bersama-sama mengucurkan dana bantuan/pinjaman liquditas sebesar $540 milyar. Itu uang sangat besar. Dan akan berdampak inflasi. Sifatnya bisa temporer dan bisa permanen. Bank dan institusi investasi swasta yang terkena dampak kredit subprime untuk sementara (paling tidak 3 bulan) tidak perlu buru-buru mencairkan investasinya (saham, emas, komoditi) menjadi dana untuk memenuhi kewajibannya. Dampak lainnya, suku bunga pinjaman komersial LIBOR (London InterBank Offered Rate), juga turun. Saya tidak akan membahas pengaruh penggelontoran liquiditas ini terhadap ekonomi. Sebab jawabnya ialah, tidak akan bisa mengelakkan resesi. Resesi ada kaitannya dengan konsumsi (di US) dan saat ini orang sudah kena kantong kempes. Bank juga tidak berani menyalurkan kredit yang bermuara ke konsumsi (Problem krisis liquiditas yang sekarang ini karena penyaluran kredit yang sembarangan. Jadi jangan harap bank-bank komersial berani memberikan kredit secara mudah lagi).
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