nama supermarketnya kok blm pernah denger ya
cukup dikenal koq.
99 ranch market.
kalo di amrik nama supermarket ini cukup populer…..
yang di sini franchise nya. pertama kali buka di kebon jeruk, samping rcti.
sekarang yang di sana udah pindah ke st. moritz.
total outlet saat ini sekitar 9 toko.
ane komporin lagi ya? tolong disimak, siapa tahu bisa nutup kerugian existing stocks seminggu terakhir ini.\r\n\r\nInvestment Thesis\r\nSupra Boga Lestari (SBL), as the premium supermarket leader in Indonesia, is on\r\nthe sweet spot to reap country''s lucrative population profiles and growing\r\neconomy. The company operates under 2 names: Ranch Market and Farmers\r\nMarket, and is known for its quality excellence as well as innovative\r\nbreakthroughs. In May12, SBL plans to issue a maximum of 312.9m new shares\r\nthrough initial public offering (IPO), primarily to finance the opening of 15 new\r\nstores within 2012-2014 and bank loan payment. Incorporating the plan, SBL net\r\nprofit is projected to grow 82.3% YoY in 2012 and 49.9% CAGR11-14. We value\r\nSBL fair net worth to range between Rp849.1bn – Rp1.1tr.\r\n\r\nKey Catalysts\r\n· Growing domestic economy to increase Indonesians living\r\nstandards. Indonesia per capita GDP has grown by 8.2%\r\nCAGR5Y to US$4,411 in 2010 and is believed to breach\r\nUS$10,000 level by 2025. This has boosted Indonesia''s HDI\r\nscore (a measure of nation''s basic living standards), which grew\r\nfaster than that of China. Other supporting facts are also:\r\ndeclining poverty and unemployment rate, as well as\r\noutperforming domestic car sales growth (vs. motorcycle sales\r\ngrowth).\r\n· Banking from enticing population profiles. 1) Indonesia is the\r\n4th most populous nation in the world, 2) Indonesia productive\r\nage and female labor population are growing at faster pace than\r\nthe overall population growth, 3) median age of Indonesia\r\npopulation is one of the youngest amongst other developing\r\ncountries, 4) tertiary education participation rate jumped by\r\nalmost three folds within 10 years, 5) size of middle-class society\r\nhas doubled than that in a decade ago, 6) shop lovers and\r\nlifestyle shoppers dominate more than half of Indonesia\r\npopulation, 7) Indonesians are easily tempted by discounts and\r\npromotions, and subsidized fuel price hike and global\r\neconomic turmoil only caused hiccups to Indonesia consumers''\r\nconfidence; it recovered not more than a year.\r\n· Benefiting from increasing foreign visitors and unsafe foods\r\ncases. Number of expatriate workers and foreign tourists in\r\nIndonesia grew by 17.3% CAGR9Y and 7.1% CAGR3Y,\r\nrespectively. Meanwhile, recent TV programs broadcast unsafe\r\nfoods cases found in the traditional markets.\r\n· Leader in the premium supermarket segment. As of 2011, SBL\r\nhas a total of 15 stores (net), as compared to its peers (The\r\nFoodHall and Kem Chicks) only have 9 and 2 stores,\r\nrespectively.\r\n· Champion in the high-quality fresh products. SBL is the\r\npioneer in providing organic, natural and healthy products. Fresh\r\nproducts account about 40% of company''s total sales. SBL is\r\nalso the only supermarket in Indonesia that applies food safety\r\nmanagement - in compliance with HACCP and ISO 22000.\r\n· Innovative management. Aside the above, SBL is also the first\r\nsupermarket that introduced the concepts of supermarket\r\nkitchen, restaurant/cafe and cooking school program in\r\nIndonesia. SBL''s food and beverage (F&B) businesses\r\ncontributed 7.6% of total sales as of 2011, and has high gross\r\nmargin of 20.0%. The company plans to install its F&B business\r\nto 3 other stores each in 2013 and 2014.\r\n· Strategic store locations. SBL’s stores are scattered in the\r\nmost affluent areas of Jakarta and Surabaya, covering: Rasuna\r\nSaid/Kuningan, Thamrin, Sudirman, Dharmawangsa, Kemang,\r\nKalibata, Puri Indah, Pondok Indah, Pesanggrahan (Puri\r\nKembangan), Serpong, Kelapa Gading, Lippo Cikarang,\r\nDharmahusada Indah, and Basuki Rahmat (the last two are in\r\nSurabaya, the rest are in Jakarta).\r\n· Expansionary mode is on. SBL planned to double its number of\r\nstores to 29 by 2014, from 15 stores (net) in 2011; this is done by\r\nopening 4 new stores (net) in 2012 and 5 new stores each in\r\n2013 and 2014.\r\n· Deleveraging programs and potential decline in borrowing\r\ncosts. SBL plans to use approximately 21.0% of the IPO\r\nproceeds to repay the expensive short-term bank loans. With its\r\nnew status as public-listed company, SBL also expects to get\r\nwider access and cheaper funding alternatives. Last year, aside\r\nof having 0.4x DER and 2.3x interest coverage, SBL paid a\r\n14.0% rate vs AMRT''s 9.7%, MIDI''s 9.6%, and HERO''s 9.5%.\r\n· Ample room for improvements in business process and cost\r\nefficiency. SBL eyes to decline its inventory turnover to 45 days\r\nand inventory waste and loss rate to 1.3% within the next two\r\nyears, from 59 days and 1.6% in 2011E, respectively. Some of\r\nthe main initiatives are: 1) developing automatic order platform\r\n(adding MRP feature in the SAP system), 2) applying centralized\r\norder system and warehouse, 3) adding another warehouse for\r\nfresh products, 3) installing the new remote temperature devices,\r\n4) forming special task force for inventory control, and 5)\r\nenhancing security system and infrastructures, especially in the\r\nreceiving areas.\r\n· Risks and concerns. 1) Tense competition in the modern market\r\nindustry, 2) unsupportive government regulations, 3)\r\nunpredictable natural causes, 4) low farmers'' orientation to\r\nquality, 5) economic policies contraction, 6) limited market size,\r\n7) poor market diversification in terms of location, high\r\ndependency to tenants, 9) thin margin business, 10) low\r\ncollateral assets, and 11) poor liquidity of modern market stocks\r\nin the IDX.\r\n\r\nEarnings Outlook\r\n· An almost 4-fold jump in profit by 2014. Net profit is\r\nforecasted to grow 82.3% YoY to Rp38.5bn in 2012 and 49.9%\r\nCAGR3Y to Rp71.2bn by 2014, mainly fueled by:\r\na. New stores opening: 3 stores (net) in 2011, 4 stores (net)\r\nin 2012, and 5 stores (net) each in 2013 and 2014.\r\nb. Improvement in operating margin, from 3.7% in 2011E to\r\n4.3% in 2012, 4.2% in 2013, and 3.8% in 2014, along\r\nwith the increase in supermarkets'' economic of scale.\r\nc. Declining net interest expense, from Rp14.3bn in 2011E\r\nto Rp5.0bn in 2012 and reaching Rp2.5bn by 2014.\r\n· Sturdy balance sheets with low financial risks. We project\r\nSBL''s DER to reach 0.1x in 2012 and 2013, while interest\r\ncoverage ratio to be at 8.2x and 17.4x in 2012 and 2013,\r\nrespectively. Further, we foresee SBL to book net cash position\r\nin 2012 onwards.\r\n\r\nValuation\r\nWe value net worth of SBL to range between Rp849.1bn – Rp1.1tr,\r\nusing the combination of DCF, EV/EBITDA, and P/E methodology.\r\n· DCF. We arrive at fair value of Rp833.5bn – Rp886.6bn, using\r\nperiod length of 5 years and WACC of 11.9% - 12.0%. In\r\ncalculating SBL’s terminal value, we use growth-in-perpetuity\r\nformula with long-term growth rate of 2.0%.\r\n· EV/EBITDA. We arrive at fair value of Rp755.1bn – Rp1.0tr,\r\nusing target multiple of 8.7x. This target multiple is based from\r\nthe average multiple of regional modern market players in 2011.\r\n· P/E. We arrive at fair value of Rp958.6bn – Rp1.4tr, using target\r\nmultiple of 24.9x. This target multiple is based from the average\r\nmultiple of regional modern market players in 2011.\r\n\r\nStrengths\r\n· Market leader in the premium supermarket segment\r\n· Undisputed in the high quality fresh and hard-to-find product categories\r\n· Ample loyal customers\r\n· Strategic store locations\r\n· Innovative management\r\n· Aggressive expansionary mode\r\n· Extensive human development programs\r\n· Sturdy balance sheets and low financial risks\r\n· Dedicated shareholders\r\n\r\nWeaknesses\r\n· Limited market size\r\n· Poor market diversification\r\n· High dependency to tenants\r\n· Thin margin business\r\n· Low collateral assets\r\n\r\nOpportunities\r\n· Growing domestic economy\r\n· Giant, young and shopaholic populations\r\n· Increasing expatriate workers and foreign tourists\r\n· TV investigation programs on unsafe foods\r\n· Plenty of untapped markets remains\r\n\r\nThreats\r\n· Competition amongst players in the industry\r\n· Government regulations\r\n· Natural causes\r\n· Most of Indonesian traditional farmers prefer quantity over quality\r\n· Economic policies contraction\r\n\r\nThe Rationales and Details of The Offerings\r\nSupra Boga Lestari (SBL), Indonesia’s premium supermarket leader,\r\nplans to raise fund through initial public offering (IPO) at Indonesia\r\nStock Exchange (ISX) scheduled in May 2012. The company plans to\r\nissue 312.9m new shares issued in the IPO, mostly to be used to\r\nfinance company’s robust store expansion plan (15 stores) within the\r\nnext three years.\r\nWith its status as a public company, SBL also expects to be able to\r\nget wider access and/or cheaper funding alternatives in the future.\r\nFor a note, aside of having sturdy balance sheets profile (D/E of 0.4x)\r\nand solid service capacity (interest coverage of 2.3x), average\r\nlending rate charged by the banks to SBL in 2011E was still 14.0% -\r\nmore than twice of the average BI rate of 6.58% during the same\r\ncorresponding period. As comparison, AMRT, MIDI, and HERO only\r\npaid 9.7%, 9.6%, and 9.5% in 2011.\r\n\r\nThe Use of IPO Proceeds\r\n1. New store openings : 60.0%\r\n2. Debt payment : 21.0%\r\n3. Working capital : 19.0%\r\n\r\nThe Tentative Agenda\r\n· Book building period : 14 –16 May 2012\r\n· Estimated effective date : 30 May 2012\r\n· Estimated offering period : 1 – 4 June 2012\r\n· Estimated allotment date : 5 June 2012\r\n· Estimated refund date : 6 June 2012\r\n· Estimated electronic distribution date : 6 June 2012\r\n· Estimated listing date : 7 June 2012\r\n\r\nSBL: Indonesia''s Premium Supermarket Leader\r\nSBL is a supermarket player that targets middle-up to upper class\r\nconsumers. SBL operates under two supermarket names: Ranch\r\nMarket and Farmers Market. Compared to Farmers, Ranch serves\r\nexpatriates and local upper class consumers, thus selling higher grade\r\nimported products (for example, in terms of fruit varieties and meat\r\ngrades) and wider varieties (especially hard-to-find items).\r\nMeanwhile, Farmers targets local middle-up consumers which were\r\nabandoned by others players that move to hypermarket and/or minimarket\r\nplatforms. By design, Farmers sells more local products and\r\nwith slightly lower grade, but still maintaining the same high-quality\r\nstandards (especially in terms of freshness) as Ranch.\r\nThere are 2 players that we consider as primary competitors of SBL in\r\nthe premium supermarket segment: The FoodHall (subsidiary of Mitra\r\nAdiperkasa) and Kem Chicks (owned by the famous agro and poultry\r\nbusinessman Bob Sadino). SBL, with total ownership of 15 stores as\r\nof 2011, is deemed as market leader of premium supermarket in\r\nIndonesia. Meanwhile, The FoodHall and Kem Chicks only have 9 and\r\n2 stores, respectively.\r\n\r\nThe History of SBL\r\nThe founder of SBL, Mr. Sutanto Joso, is well-known for his success\r\nin development and grooming the Japanese-theme fast-food\r\nrestaurant: Hoka Hoka Bento. He took an optimistic position in the\r\ngrowing Indonesians'' disposable income, and desired to expand their\r\nwings to supermarket business; hence he formed a special team to\r\nconduct market surveys in 1996. As a result, he spotted lucrative\r\nopportunities in the premium supermarket segment which was poorly\r\ncatered, up until now.\r\nTo materialize the dream, Mr. Sutanto, Mr. Kentjana Widjaja, and\r\ntogether with other partners established SBL in May 1997. The first\r\nstore: Ranch Market Kebon Jeruk opened in October 1998 (the store\r\nwas closed and relocated to St. Moritz in 2009 due to rental price\r\nhike). Amid sailing during economic crisis, SBL strived to perform\r\nflawlessly and continued to open another Ranch store in Pondok\r\nIndah Mall (PIM) in 1999.\r\nAs of 2011, Ranch has 10 stores in total, scattered in the most affluent\r\nareas of Jakarta city (PIM, Dharmawangsa, Oakwood Kuningan, St.\r\nMoritz, Kemang, Grand Indonesia, Pejaten, and Pesanggrahan) and\r\nSurabaya (Galaxy Mall and Basuki Rahmat).\r\nIn the thick of Indonesia economic upturn in 2006, SBL also saw a\r\nlucrative opportunity to cater middle-up segment, thus launched a\r\nnew supermarket platform: Farmers Market, with its first two stores\r\nbuilt in Kelapa Gading Mall and Serpong. Now, with 3 additional stores\r\nin Epicentrum Kuningan, Cikarang, and Kalibata - as of 2011 Farmers\r\nhas total 5 stores in operation.\r\n\r\nHard-to-find items\r\nOne of the attributes that differentiate SBL from other supermarkets is\r\nthat SBL – especially Ranch – provide a wide variety of hard-to-find\r\nitems. These products are rare to find in common supermarkets and\r\nare often being associated with:\r\n· Unique imported products, such as: premium meats (i.e: dryaged\r\nbeef, wagyu beef and 135-day grain-fed beef), exotic fruits\r\nand vegetables (i.e: pomegranate, berries, cherry, nectarine,\r\npeach, mesclun, mizuna, stir fry leaves, and lotus root), imported\r\nsnacks and beverages, gourmet delicatessen, and cheese (i.e:\r\nCheddar, Mascarpone, Fromage Blanc, Monterey Jack, and\r\nParmesan).\r\n· Specialty products, such as: organic, low carb, less sugar,\r\nless/non-fat, gluten-free, and high-fiber, as well as special\r\nhealthy products for certain illness (i.e.: autism, heart and\r\ndiabetes).\r\n· Unique and premium local products, such as: bitter-nut leaves,\r\ncoriander leaves, salt-dried vegetables, organic poultry,\r\nenvironmental-friendly sea-foods, and famous premium products\r\nfrom a particular region (i.e.: ‘Kecap Miramar’ from Semarang,\r\nforest honey from Papua, and ‘Siropen’ syrup from Surabaya).\r\n\r\nFresh products\r\nSomething that becomes SBL''s ultimate selling proposition is the\r\nfreshness of its products. In fact, fresh products are the second\r\nlargest revenue contributor for SBL, accounting about 40% of total\r\nsales. Profitability wise, fresh products yield much higher gross margin\r\nof 26% - 34% than groceries'' 11% - 17%. To maintain the quality of\r\nits fresh products, the company applies strict material selection and\r\ninventory policies. Some of them are:\r\n· Multi suppliers\r\n· Off-take guarantee with premium prices for high-quality products\r\n· Exclusive relationship with unique product suppliers\r\n· Annual supplier review\r\n· FIFO inventory with maximum waste and shrinkage rate of 6.5% for fruits and vegetables and 6.0% for meats and sea-foods\r\n· Food safety tracking system (marking stickers)\r\n· Daily quality and temperature control\r\n\r\nHealthy foods\r\nSBL also claims itself as the pioneer in providing organic, natural and\r\nhealthy products. Not just being the first, it is also the only\r\nsupermarket in Indonesia that applies food safety management\r\nsystem - in compliance with the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point\r\n(HACCP) and ISO 9000 certifications (both were acquired since 2003).\r\nIn 2008, SBL successfully upgraded its ISO 9000 certification to ISO\r\n22000.\r\nTo SBL, quality certification is very important, not just to give\r\nconviction, but also assurance to its customers that fresh products\r\nprovided are premium for a reason, as the products are truly fresh,\r\nnatural, safe, and healthy. This is understandable because most of\r\nSBL customers are health-conscious and brand-recognized shoppers.\r\n\r\nCreating wonderful and passionate shopping experience\r\nOther unique scheme that SBL presents in its supermarkets,\r\nparticularly in Ranch, are: supermarket kitchen, restaurant/café and\r\ncooking school. These innovations, along with unique and cozy\r\ninterior design, are meant not just to turn what used to be boring\r\nshopping as mere habits, into wonderful and passionate shopping\r\nexperience, but also become third place after home and office, where\r\npeople can gather, socialize, and dine at the same time.\r\n\r\nThe supermarket kitchens\r\nNamed The Ranch Kitchen and located in Ranch PIM and Oakwood\r\nKuningan. In the Ranch Kitchen, customers can order special menus\r\nprepared from the kitchen or request the chefs to prepare the\r\nmaterials that they bought from the supermarket (there may be an\r\nextra charge of around Rp10,000 per cook for this service). The\r\ncustomers are also allowed to dine-in the F&B that are bought from\r\nthe supermarket together with the menus they order from the Ranch\r\nKitchen. From our underground check, the tables are always full,\r\nespecially during lunch office hours and weekend nights.\r\n\r\nRestaurant/café\r\nIn addition to the Ranch Kitchen, SBL also collaborates restaurants in\r\nthe supermarkets, named: The Ninety Nine, located at Ranch Grand\r\nIndonesia, Pesanggrahan, and Basuki Rahmat; as well as cafés,\r\nnamed: Bonjour Café, located at Ranch Pesanggrahan, Grand\r\nIndonesia, and PIM. Bonjour Café is a Japanese pastry franchise from\r\nBonjour Los Angeles, USA, with pastry chefs are directly brought from\r\nJapan.\r\n\r\nHow lucrative is the F&B business?\r\nSBL''s kitchens and restaurants/cafés are classified as food and\r\nbeverage (F&B) business. As of 2011, F&B contributed around 19.0%\r\nrevenue to the respective stores (PIM, Oakwood Kuningan, Grand\r\nIndonesia, Pesanggrahan and Galaxy Mall stores only), 13.8% of total\r\nRanch supermarket and 7.6% of SBL consolidated. Gross margin\r\ncarried from these businesses are very lucrative, reaching a high\r\n20.0% as of 2011.\r\n\r\nEffective marketing campaign through Ranch Cooking School\r\nAs part of an effort to increase customers'' loyalty, SBL introduced\r\nRanch Cooking School at PIM and Pesanggrahan store. It is a free\r\ncooking school program for loyal customers (members) of Ranch\r\nMarket with minimal purchase of Rp1.0m in single or multiple\r\ntransactions (or Rp150,000 will be charged to non-members). The\r\nclass will be conducted by teachers from famous local and\r\ninternational chefs. At PIM store, the Ranch Cooking School even has\r\nbeen evolved into a new Lifestyle Studio concept, equipped with\r\nlarger and cozier kitchen space within the outlet. Some of the classes\r\nare: table manners, introduction to premium beefs, wine knowledge\r\nand creative cooking. For this, SBL charges between Rp350,000 -\r\nRp450,000 per participant.\r\n\r\nVision, mission and core values\r\nVision : To become the most respected, loved and trustedthought\r\nleader in Indonesia''s supermarket industry\r\nMission : SBL business is to offer highest quality foods and\r\nunsurpassed customer service. The company is\r\ncommitted to deliver foods that are fresh, wholesome\r\nand safe-to-eat. Search for quality is never ending\r\nprocess for SBL, involving careful judgment of buyers\r\nthroughout the company.\r\nCore Values:\r\n· To sell the highest quality, safe-to-eat products available\r\n· To host a wonderful shopping experience\r\n· Team members happiness and excellence\r\n· To create wealth through responsible profit and growth\r\n· To care about the communities and environment\r\nTarget : 29 stores with Rp2.0tr turnover by 2014 (vs. 15 stores\r\nwith an estimated Rp878.0bn turnover in 2011)