Posted by
Imam_semar
Written on
11 February 2004
Market Review 2003 (Bagian I)
In probabilistic world, things can still go up and also down. Until it happens you don’t know if it is up or down. Hence for me statistic is useless [Homer Simpson]
Saya tidak sependapat dengan Homer. Paling tidak untuk meramalkan indek IHSG mendatang dan berinvestasi saya menggunakan statistik. Di akhir 2002 dan awal 2003 saya percaya dengan keyakinan 90% bahwa IHSG akan menembus 700 dalam 18 bulan. Ini didukung oleh polling di KSC. Ternyata pada akhir 2003 indek sudah menembus 700. Dan untuk menembus 800 adalah 50%-50% didukung oleh poll KSC (60%) chance, dan sebelum tahun baru Imlek IHSG sudah 776, tinggal 5% lagi menuju 800. Kemudian turun lagi karena pengaruh flu burung dan
mantra Greenspan yang sedikit berubah, sehingga IHSG sampai level 730an, sebelum rebound kembali dengan kuat.
Saya sengaja mengeluarkan market review ini setelah tahun baru Imlek. Karena pada bagian ke dua, saya akan membahas mengenai karakter tahun monyet yang berekor angka mati (4). Dari segi kepercayaan tahayul Cina, tahun ini bagaikan berhadapan dengan tahun yang cerdik (seperti kera) dan mematikan.
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